Nov 25th, 2008, 22:19 | #1 |
华疯小混混的领导
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请教技术派的高手
这张S&P 500的图应该如何分析? 目前的最低位750算是突破了M头的最低位吗?(2002年低位) |
一天想到归去但已晚
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Nov 26th, 2008, 19:31 | 只看该作者 #5 |
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Nice chart. A perfect double top. DOW will not bottom until it hits the pre-boom level, approx. 3000-4000. The boom started in 90's was driven by consumer spending, which was fueled by easy / cheap credit. There will be various rebounds, and some of them will be quite substantial, which is not surprising at all. Bear market rally can be way stronger than you think, but eventually will be sold into. Until higher highs and higher lows formed, the bear trend will not stop. |
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感谢 klin 此篇文章之用户: |
top gun (Nov 26th, 2008) |
Nov 27th, 2008, 15:13 | 只看该作者 #11 |
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History always repeats itself. I believe the only way to predict the future is to study the history. If the current crisis is something happens once in a century, we've gotta look at it within a much longer time span. I like your first chart as it perfectly indicates a super strong bull market started in 80's has topped early this year. Short term charts, on the other hand, are harder to study. For example, if we just check a chart for the last 30 days, we can't even tell if it's a bull or bear market as it looks so random. My favouriate strategy is to determine what market we are in now first, then buy on dips for bull market or sell into rally during the bear market. Of course, like I said, bulls make money, bears make money, only pigs who follow others blindly, get killed. |
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Nov 27th, 2008, 22:41 | 只看该作者 #12 |
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如果纯粹看技术面,按照M头判断,当然就会有底部在3000-4000左右的可能。可怕不可怕,市场说了算,牛市顶峰的点位,在几年前的人来看,不照样不可思议? 基本面看,这次熊市不是特殊事件引起的,而是经济本身发展造成的,因此短时间起来的可能性比较小,L型的可能性最大。 当然,最好是走一步看一步,不要去预测,跟着行情做。如果做多,就要把所有的上涨都当作反弹来做,把所有的下跌都当作熊市来临来做。宁肯被洗或者踏空,不能被套。Bear trend当然要逢高做空或者buy put option,sell put option最最要不的。 |
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Nov 28th, 2008, 09:21 | 只看该作者 #14 | |
告别2011
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引用:
今天的LIBOR又到了1.6%以上了,是最近的新高了;信贷市场危机,应该没有这么快结束:是不是该掉头了? |
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Nov 28th, 2008, 10:30 | 只看该作者 #16 |
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Selling put/call is not a problem, as long as you know exactly what your risk exposure is and how you manage it. Most of my profits came from selling options. With right option strategy, you can make steady income in any market.
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Nov 28th, 2008, 10:34 | 只看该作者 #17 | |
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Nov 28th, 2008, 12:07 | 只看该作者 #18 | |
华疯小混混的领导
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引用:
届时,C翻两倍收到10块以上,还有GM也会翻两倍, 我也不信金融危机结束了,但是市场基本上毫无理性. 市场或许再等一个信号,就是我手里的空仓割肉的时候. 此帖于 Nov 28th, 2008 12:43 被 野渡无人 编辑。 |
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