每年的10月份都不合适做吗

McStudent · Aug 16th, 2006, 16:26

想在10月份之前清仓全部股票套现（有点利润不容易啊！），等过了传说中可怕的OCT再说，我是新手想请问老手们：有没有这么回事啊？不过好像去年9月底真的买完就跌，NND，邪门儿了！

liszt · Aug 16th, 2006, 22:37

引用:

作者: McStudent

想在10月份之前清仓全部股票套现（有点利润不容易啊！），等过了传说中可怕的OCT再说，我是新手想请问老手们：有没有这么回事啊？不过好像去年9月底真的买完就跌，NND，邪门儿了！

关于市场的cycle，一般的说法是这样的：

Since 1950， the months from November to April have been gaining seasons, whereas little to no gain takes place, on average, between May and October.

Not only does market direction flatten out or decline in summer, but so does the volume.

Many traders have advocated a strategy of trading actively during the late fall, winter , and spring, and "going to cash"- selling security positions - for the summer.

所以一般是五月前离场，十月底进场

liszt · Aug 16th, 2006, 23:03

还有一些有趣的说法：

The Triple Witch and Her Friends

Markets may be driven in the short term by the expiration of options and stock index futures. Sophisticated market players "hedge" investments with options; that is, they buy or sell in directions opposite to their main position. An option expiration can mean large position closeouts (known as "unwinding") of baskets of stocks held against futures or options. What happens when options expire? Markets become more volatile, providing trading opportunities, though there is no definite pattern to the volatility.

The "triple witch" occures four times a year when equity options, index options, and futures options all expire on the same day - the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. Other equity and index options expire monthly, but the triple witch expirations have the strongest effect on the market.

liszt · Aug 16th, 2006, 23:17

Window dressing

A number of market strategists follow end-of-month and especially end-of-quarter "window dressing" market moves. The moves are driven by the need for fund and other institutional managers to show solid performance to their shareholders and clients. Often stocks that are "popular" or have shown solid gains over a period tend to do well during the last few days of a calender quarter (March, June, september, and December) in part, at least, because fund managers, who may have been "left out" of such stocks, want to show these investments in their portfolio. Conversely, managers might weed out and sell poor performers. The behavior has little effect on the market as a whole but can influence sectors and individual stocks.

McStudent · Aug 17th, 2006, 00:04

引用:

作者: liszt

所以一般是五月前离场，十月底进场

谢谢老李！都这么说，我看大家好像也都没闲着啊？但10月好像特别低潮，可能跟你说的什么triple witch有关吧。老李你不休息休息？

我打算清仓，观望为主，准备充足弹药为11月份的继续战斗。咳！赚点钱正是不容易啊！也听高兴了！

一片天 · Aug 17th, 2006, 03:50

我说这几个月怎么老赔呢，原来是这个规律。这个帖子早出4个月多好。
还是谢谢楼主和斑竹。

McStudent · Aug 17th, 2006, 14:09

引用:

作者: 一片天

我说这几个月怎么老赔呢，原来是这个规律。这个帖子早出4个月多好。
还是谢谢楼主和斑竹。

加精啦！没想到啊！谢谢老李啊！有点受宠若惊呢！希望大家都攥钱就好

liszt · Aug 17th, 2006, 19:44

The strongest bull markets occur during the middle of decades. No year ending in"5" has been a loser since 1985, and most "0" years (1990,2000,etc) have been down.

The "January barometer" holds that a year's market direction can be predicted by Januray's direction with 91 percent accuracy. The year can be predicted by Januray's first five days with 85 percent accuracy.

December and Januray are the strongest and most consistant "up" months, whereas September is the most consistantly "down" month.

Presidential elections can drive markets. Markets have gained 743 percent in aggregate in the second half of a presidential term versus 228 percent for the first half.

Since 1990, Mondays are typically up days, whereas Fridays are typically down days. Before 1990, it was the opposite. Investors seem not to want to keep money on the table over weekends with today's unstable world.

The first day of the month is strong. From 1997 to 2004 (83 month), the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3,559 points in aggregate on the first day of the month, while it lost 837 points during the rest of the month.

liszt · Aug 17th, 2006, 23:07

http://www.calstatela.edu/faculty/rc...cture12006.ppt

inflation and interest rates

McStudent · Aug 18th, 2006, 10:57

引用:

作者: liszt

[URL="http://www.calstatela.edu/faculty/rcastil/ECON_435/Lecture12006.ppt"]http://www.calstatela.edu/faculty/rcastil/ECON_435/Lecture12006.p...

老李啊，做长线是不是就不用管这个cycle了呢？买完去度假就行了呢？

觉得老是这么短线折腾来折腾去，钱都给agent赚了，水房高兴死了！

liszt · Aug 18th, 2006, 11:13

引用:

作者: McStudent

老李啊，做长线是不是就不用管这个cycle了呢？买完去度假就行了呢？

觉得老是这么短线折腾来折腾去，钱都给agent赚了，水房高兴死了！

确实，上面的cycles对于active trader的作用是很明显的，所以就有月初涨，年末年初涨，周一涨，周五跌等说法，（BTW，今日就是周五

），空单不过周末的说法，都是上述cycles的体现。

长线，如果很长的，当然不用考虑了。水房的佣金太高了点吧（ike这样的总统账户例外）

Aug 16th, 2006, 16:26	#1
McStudent Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 1,315 精华:1	每年的10月份都不合适做吗想在10月份之前清仓全部股票套现（有点利润不容易啊！），等过了传说中可怕的OCT再说，我是新手想请问老手们：有没有这么回事啊？不过好像去年9月底真的买完就跌，NND，邪门儿了！
McStudent Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 1,315 精华:1	有人向我挑战，我不回话，只是疾驰而去，然后放马后炮打倒他！

Aug 17th, 2006, 03:50	只看该作者 #6
一片天 Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 161 声望: 0	我说这几个月怎么老赔呢，原来是这个规律。这个帖子早出4个月多好。还是谢谢楼主和斑竹。
一片天 Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 161 声望: 0

Aug 17th, 2006, 19:44	只看该作者 #8
liszt 告别2011 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 14,210 积分:130 精华:30 声望: 6885868	Yearly, monthly, weekly, daily cycles The strongest bull markets occur during the middle of decades. No year ending in"5" has been a loser since 1985, and most "0" years (1990,2000,etc) have been down. The "January barometer" holds that a year's market direction can be predicted by Januray's direction with 91 percent accuracy. The year can be predicted by Januray's first five days with 85 percent accuracy. December and Januray are the strongest and most consistant "up" months, whereas September is the most consistantly "down" month. Presidential elections can drive markets. Markets have gained 743 percent in aggregate in the second half of a presidential term versus 228 percent for the first half. Since 1990, Mondays are typically up days, whereas Fridays are typically down days. Before 1990, it was the opposite. Investors seem not to want to keep money on the table over weekends with today's unstable world. The first day of the month is strong. From 1997 to 2004 (83 month), the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3,559 points in aggregate on the first day of the month, while it lost 837 points during the rest of the month.

Aug 17th, 2006, 23:07	只看该作者 #9
liszt 告别2011 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 14,210 积分:130 精华:30 声望: 6885868	about Economic Indicators http://www.calstatela.edu/faculty/rc...cture12006.ppt inflation and interest rates 此帖于 Aug 17th, 2006 23:22 被 liszt 编辑。

Aug 16th, 2006, 23:03	只看该作者 #3
liszt 告别2011 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 14,210 积分:130 精华:30 声望: 6885868	还有一些有趣的说法： The Triple Witch and Her Friends Markets may be driven in the short term by the expiration of options and stock index futures. Sophisticated market players "hedge" investments with options; that is, they buy or sell in directions opposite to their main position. An option expiration can mean large position closeouts (known as "unwinding") of baskets of stocks held against futures or options. What happens when options expire? Markets become more volatile, providing trading opportunities, though there is no definite pattern to the volatility. The "triple witch" occures four times a year when equity options, index options, and futures options all expire on the same day - the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. Other equity and index options expire monthly, but the triple witch expirations have the strongest effect on the market.

Aug 16th, 2006, 23:17	只看该作者 #4
liszt 告别2011 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 14,210 积分:130 精华:30 声望: 6885868	Window dressing A number of market strategists follow end-of-month and especially end-of-quarter "window dressing" market moves. The moves are driven by the need for fund and other institutional managers to show solid performance to their shareholders and clients. Often stocks that are "popular" or have shown solid gains over a period tend to do well during the last few days of a calender quarter (March, June, september, and December) in part, at least, because fund managers, who may have been "left out" of such stocks, want to show these investments in their portfolio. Conversely, managers might weed out and sell poor performers. The behavior has little effect on the market as a whole but can influence sectors and individual stocks.