一篇文章，一组数据。买房？卖房？

JZ2369 · Jul 5th, 2008, 18:03

根据下面的文章及过去一年+一个月的数据，你对买房／卖房有何看法？

文章是：

Alberta housing boom is over
Reverberations of Canada's housing boom have become a distant rumble across most of the country, with the echo growing especially faint in Alberta's two largest cities.

After the commodities boom fuelled the strength of Alberta's housing market at unsustainable levels for longer than anticipated, Calgary and Edmonton are now leading the slowdown of the country's housing market, says a report released yesterday by TD Bank Financial Group. Only Saskatchewan is bucking the national trend.

"The trend has been broadly based, but it has been particularly sharp in some of the markets that had experienced the most dramatic price growth," says the report penned by TD economists Craig Alexander and Pascal Gauthier.

Prices in the two cities are likely to continue falling for the next year, dropping eight to 10% from their peak, before stabilizing at single-digit growth rates early next year, the report says.

Nationally, home prices are forecast to grow at a low single-digit pace.

The slowdown was also evident in sales.

"Just as Calgary and Edmonton led the way up in sales growth, they are now leading the way down," the report says, noting sales in Calgary are likely to revert to 2004 levels near 26,000 units.

Sales volumes in Alberta, after hovering at about 70,000 units for the past two years, are forecast to drop to 40,000 to 50,000 units this year and next.

The Calgary Real Estate Board is due to release May sales data next week.

CREB president Ed Jensen said the Calgary market remains stable and hasn't posted any drastic changes from previous months.

"I see a steady market," he said. "I don't see doom and gloom on the horizon."

A separate report, also released yesterday, underscores TD's predictions. Residential unit sales in Alberta dropped by 31% to 5,958 from 8,606 in May, compared to last year.

The average MLS sales price slid about 1% over the same period to $360,284 from $363,574, says the Canadian Real Estate Association.

数据为：
Calgary MLS
Single Family Home
Monthly Summaries

月份库存量月新增月销售 30天均价 30天中间价 DOM 销售/新增售价=>要价

June 08 6543 2787 1439 473,774 408,000 46 52% 5%

May 08 7,099 3432 1368 479,564 419,000 42 40% 6%

Apr 08 6881 3377 1363 474,564 420,000 40 40% 5%

Mar 08 5957 3493 1418 474,513 420,000 40 41% 7%

Feb 08 4985 2981 1252 471,696 428,000 39 42% NA

Jan 08 3997 3023 1083 455,297 410,000 50 36% 6%

Dec 07 3364 984 846 444,769 406,788 51 86% 9%

Nov 07 4984 1949 1103 462,134 407,500 46 57% 5%

Oct 07 5517 2586 1113 452,254 412,500 40 43% 5%

Sep 07 5562 3106 1064 470,888 420,500 40 34% 6%

Aug 07 4821 2837 1314 485,914 430,000 39 46% 7%

Jul 07 4510 2548 1495 505,920 435,000 35 59% 9%

Jun 07 4443 3313 1757 496,890 439,000 29 53% 13%

小f · Jul 5th, 2008, 19:49

引用:

作者: JZ2369

根据下面的文章及过去一年+一个月的数据，你对买房／卖房有何看法？

文章是：

Alberta housing boom is over
Reverberations of Canada's housing boom have become a distant rumble across ...

这两年新建的房子太多了。哪有那么多需求啊。我看我邻居都有两套房子，一个在建，一个等着卖，市场当然要slow一下。况且美国的房事那么差，他们的房子比喀城的强多了，参照加元升值，喀城的房子实在太贵了。
幸好，职业市场还是火爆，现在年收入十万以上的太多了，3，4年前估计只有一半。另外通货膨胀，建材涨价，新房成本不低，所以所谓的低价，只不过把面积改小了，lot改挤了而已。
不知道slow会持续多久，参照911,作房事两年以后再看吧。

小何在加国 · Jul 5th, 2008, 20:28

看来需求一直比较平稳，没有大的波动，并且还是在这两年经济形势好的情况下。如果经济放缓，需求还能保持如此，那将难能可贵。反过来，而供给却是很旺盛，说明卖家出手比较坚决，观望在减少。

come_from_SC · Jul 5th, 2008, 20:33

今年上半年从其它省份到卡城的净移入人口数量只有800人左右，移到卡城的海外移民也只有2万7千多，跟前两年是完全不能比了。而上半年大多数时间内，市场上的single house有6千多，每个月的成交1千3、4的样子，租房市场的空置率也由去年的0.5%升至2.5%左右。房市明显呈走低趋势，但房价并未明显下降，目前的油价对房价有支撑，当然房市跟股市有一定差别，影响房价的因素比较多，周期也要长一些，油价虚火肯定要挺到明年美国大选情况比较明朗的时候。要买房的，能多杀一点就尽量多杀一点，如果能等到明年，可能房价调整会到位一些，现在只是可以慢慢选，但房价并没有下调多少。

闲人. · Jul 5th, 2008, 21:21

文章不说得挺明白吗。房市增长该稳定在每年各位数内的增长率。俺的理解是长还是要长，想靠房市做短线的那拨鱼已经过去了。

Chevolet · Jul 5th, 2008, 21:38

两年的房地产大牛市已结束,调整期会很长,或许长达3年-5年,对拥有多套房的投资者影响较大,每套每年x万的跌幅,不是个小数目,明智的投资者,目前手上应该都是现金.

messi · Jul 5th, 2008, 21:41

引用:

作者: come_from_SC

今年上半年从其它省份到卡城的净移入人口数量只有800人左右，...

奇怪现在安省经济差得很，汽车公司一裁就几千，别的公司，象NORTEL，AIR CANADA一裁也是几千，他们那些人怎么不来阿省了？

mymy · Jul 5th, 2008, 21:51

引用:

作者: messi

奇怪现在安省经济差得很，汽车公司一裁就几千，别的公司，象NORTEL，AIR CANADA一裁也是几千，他们那些人怎么不来阿省了？

认识几个那边来的，除了回去了的就是正打算回去的。

come_from_SC · Jul 5th, 2008, 22:22

生活成本Calgary太高了，很后悔当时有个North Bay的面试没怎么用心，房价十几二十万，有个专业工作的话，日子立马就小康了，在Calgary一家两个都上班，还顶不上那儿一个人工作。

come_from_SC · Jul 6th, 2008, 01:37

发个图形供参考

闲人. · Jul 6th, 2008, 01:41

引用:

作者: come_from_SC

生活成本Calgary太高了，很后悔当时有个North Bay的面试没怎么用心，房价十几二十万，有个专业工作的话，日子立马就小康了，在Calgary一家两个都上班，还顶不上那儿一个人工作。

后悔有啥用阿。安省有这儿这么蓝的天？毛主席他老人家说：看安居乐业，还属卡城

come_from_SC · Jul 6th, 2008, 02:01

冬天安省的暴风雪比较厉害，不知要真的搬过去能不能适应，不过夏天还是非常不错的，有江南水乡的感觉，上月过去出差，好好的转了一大圈，感觉非常不错

Jul 5th, 2008, 18:03	#1
JZ2369 Junior Member 注册日期: Feb 2008 帖子: 18	一篇文章，一组数据。买房？卖房？根据下面的文章及过去一年+一个月的数据，你对买房／卖房有何看法？文章是： Alberta housing boom is over Reverberations of Canada's housing boom have become a distant rumble across most of the country, with the echo growing especially faint in Alberta's two largest cities. After the commodities boom fuelled the strength of Alberta's housing market at unsustainable levels for longer than anticipated, Calgary and Edmonton are now leading the slowdown of the country's housing market, says a report released yesterday by TD Bank Financial Group. Only Saskatchewan is bucking the national trend. "The trend has been broadly based, but it has been particularly sharp in some of the markets that had experienced the most dramatic price growth," says the report penned by TD economists Craig Alexander and Pascal Gauthier. Prices in the two cities are likely to continue falling for the next year, dropping eight to 10% from their peak, before stabilizing at single-digit growth rates early next year, the report says. Nationally, home prices are forecast to grow at a low single-digit pace. The slowdown was also evident in sales. "Just as Calgary and Edmonton led the way up in sales growth, they are now leading the way down," the report says, noting sales in Calgary are likely to revert to 2004 levels near 26,000 units. Sales volumes in Alberta, after hovering at about 70,000 units for the past two years, are forecast to drop to 40,000 to 50,000 units this year and next. The Calgary Real Estate Board is due to release May sales data next week. CREB president Ed Jensen said the Calgary market remains stable and hasn't posted any drastic changes from previous months. "I see a steady market," he said. "I don't see doom and gloom on the horizon." A separate report, also released yesterday, underscores TD's predictions. Residential unit sales in Alberta dropped by 31% to 5,958 from 8,606 in May, compared to last year. The average MLS sales price slid about 1% over the same period to $360,284 from $363,574, says the Canadian Real Estate Association. 数据为： Calgary MLS Single Family Home Monthly Summaries 月份库存量月新增月销售 30天均价 30天中间价 DOM 销售/新增售价=>要价 June 08 6543 2787 1439 473,774 408,000 46 52% 5% May 08 7,099 3432 1368 479,564 419,000 42 40% 6% Apr 08 6881 3377 1363 474,564 420,000 40 40% 5% Mar 08 5957 3493 1418 474,513 420,000 40 41% 7% Feb 08 4985 2981 1252 471,696 428,000 39 42% NA Jan 08 3997 3023 1083 455,297 410,000 50 36% 6% Dec 07 3364 984 846 444,769 406,788 51 86% 9% Nov 07 4984 1949 1103 462,134 407,500 46 57% 5% Oct 07 5517 2586 1113 452,254 412,500 40 43% 5% Sep 07 5562 3106 1064 470,888 420,500 40 34% 6% Aug 07 4821 2837 1314 485,914 430,000 39 46% 7% Jul 07 4510 2548 1495 505,920 435,000 35 59% 9% Jun 07 4443 3313 1757 496,890 439,000 29 53% 13%
JZ2369 Junior Member 注册日期: Feb 2008 帖子: 18

Jul 5th, 2008, 20:28	只看该作者 #3
小何在加国 Senior Member 注册日期: Jun 2007 帖子: 357 声望: 0	看来需求一直比较平稳，没有大的波动，并且还是在这两年经济形势好的情况下。如果经济放缓，需求还能保持如此，那将难能可贵。反过来，而供给却是很旺盛，说明卖家出手比较坚决，观望在减少。
小何在加国 Senior Member 注册日期: Jun 2007 帖子: 357 声望: 0

Jul 6th, 2008, 01:37	只看该作者 #10
come_from_SC Senior Member 注册日期: Apr 2008 帖子: 983 声望: 5848263	发个图形供参考上传的缩略图

Jul 5th, 2008, 20:33	只看该作者 #4
come_from_SC Senior Member 注册日期: Apr 2008 帖子: 983 声望: 5848263	今年上半年从其它省份到卡城的净移入人口数量只有800人左右，移到卡城的海外移民也只有2万7千多，跟前两年是完全不能比了。而上半年大多数时间内，市场上的single house有6千多，每个月的成交1千3、4的样子，租房市场的空置率也由去年的0.5%升至2.5%左右。房市明显呈走低趋势，但房价并未明显下降，目前的油价对房价有支撑，当然房市跟股市有一定差别，影响房价的因素比较多，周期也要长一些，油价虚火肯定要挺到明年美国大选情况比较明朗的时候。要买房的，能多杀一点就尽量多杀一点，如果能等到明年，可能房价调整会到位一些，现在只是可以慢慢选，但房价并没有下调多少。

Jul 5th, 2008, 21:21	只看该作者 #5
闲人. Senior Member 注册日期: Aug 2005 帖子: 11,487 积分:49 精华:12 声望: 3532191	文章不说得挺明白吗。房市增长该稳定在每年各位数内的增长率。俺的理解是长还是要长，想靠房市做短线的那拨鱼已经过去了。

Jul 5th, 2008, 21:38	只看该作者 #6
Chevolet Senior Member 注册日期: Jan 2008 帖子: 1,886 声望: 709960	两年的房地产大牛市已结束,调整期会很长,或许长达3年-5年,对拥有多套房的投资者影响较大,每套每年x万的跌幅,不是个小数目,明智的投资者,目前手上应该都是现金.

Jul 5th, 2008, 22:22	只看该作者 #9
come_from_SC Senior Member 注册日期: Apr 2008 帖子: 983 声望: 5848263	生活成本Calgary太高了，很后悔当时有个North Bay的面试没怎么用心，房价十几二十万，有个专业工作的话，日子立马就小康了，在Calgary一家两个都上班，还顶不上那儿一个人工作。

Jul 6th, 2008, 02:01	只看该作者 #12
come_from_SC Senior Member 注册日期: Apr 2008 帖子: 983 声望: 5848263	冬天安省的暴风雪比较厉害，不知要真的搬过去能不能适应，不过夏天还是非常不错的，有江南水乡的感觉，上月过去出差，好好的转了一大圈，感觉非常不错