May 20th, 2010, 08:34 | #1 |
告别2011
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轻言抄底 : 美股和A股
股市运行有其自身规律, 虽然没有一项万能的指标可以预测后市,但是综合主板以及各种期货期权的交易数据你大致还是可以判断出大的趋势. 从上周以来我一直强调,本轮SPX在触摸1065点这个5.6长针底部区域之前,都不要轻易去抄底:因为市场还没有panic,因为主力先头部队还没有进场;同样,国内A股的主力先头部队目前仍在继续增持空单的情况下,任何5.19遐想都是不懂股指期货的幼稚表现。我已经很久没有评论过国内A股市场了,因为以前是单边市,评无可评。自从推出股指期货以后,就有了用武之地。还是那句:如果看不懂期货期权这个市场,就很可能看不懂一半甚至一大半的美A股市。 什么时候是底?我会在这里一如去年的V逆转一般,第一时间发表看法。 |
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May 20th, 2010, 14:55 | 只看该作者 #16 | |
华疯小混混的领导
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美国这个国家,它的发集史就是靠别人倒霉,两次大战是最好的例子了.欧元倒台,世界上再无能挑战美元地位的东西,大量的资金要回流美国.美国的国债又成为全世界的抢手货.这一切,都是未来几年顺理成章的事情. 欧洲驻定要完蛋,不仅仅是因为欧元,我当时从欧州回来就是这个想法.欧州的衰落应该是个长期的,缓慢的过程.欧元只是第一步.整个欧州就是个大号的希蜡. 欧元肯定还要跌,金融界肯定还要动荡,以至于还要带动美股动荡,但是美股不会DOUBLE DIP.如同当年亚洲金融危机一样,美股会借机会调整,但是欧元的垮台恰恰是美国大牛市的催化剂. |
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May 20th, 2010, 16:35 | 只看该作者 #17 | |
告别2011
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今日的光头光脚有点意思了, 我真担心尾盘又拉上去 -- 那样的话明日还是大跌. S&P Stocks With High Levels of European Exposure May 14, 2010 In light of the continued Eurozone contagion issues, Olympia Capital put out a handy list of S&P 100 companies will significant European exposure: European Risk Analysis: Companies with Significant Exposure With European equity markets breaking down and the euro sinking further, we felt it timely to look at those companies most exposed. Overnight in Asia, the trend was notable with major exporters to Europe suffering significant share declines. The concerns of a debt contagion and currency appreciation are being felt in Asian markets. We expect market participants will start to scrutinized investments heavily weighted in Europe as debt concerns rise and economic growth slows. As such, we took a closer look at companies within the S&P 100 with significant exposure. Many companies do not break out Europe specifically, instead choosing to loop the region in with the Middle East and Africa. The list below is as a percentage of total revenues using 10k filings. Greater than 30% - Philip Morris (NYSE: PM) 46% (EU alone) Gilead Sciences (Nasdaq: GILD) 42.5% McDonalds (NYSE: MCD) 41.0% Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) 33.6% Baxter Intl (NYSE: BAX) 33.3% HJ Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) 33.6% Xerox (NYSE: XRX) 32.8% NewsCorp (NYSE: NWS.A) 31% NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) 30.7% Greater than 20% - Mastercard (NYSE: MA) 29.5% (gross dollar rev) Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) 29.1% Nike (NYSE: NKE) 28.8% Ford (NYSE: F) 27.9% (auto sales) Alcoa (NYSE: AA) 27.6% Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) 27.5% Exxon (NYSE: XOM) 26% 3M (NYSE: MMM) 25.8% J&J (NYSE: JNJ) 25.7% Honeywell (NYSE: HON) 24.7% Medtronic (MDT) 24.4% GE (NYSE: GE) 23.5% Abbott Labs (NYSE: ABT) 23.3% United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) 23.1% Kraft (NYSE: KFT) 21.7% Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO) 21.3% Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) 21% Greater than 10% - Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) 16.6% PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) 16% Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) 15% Monsanto (NYSE: MON) 15% Coke (NYSE: KO) 13.9% Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) 13.5% Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) 13.0% American Express (NYSE: AXP) 12.9% (net of interest exp and pretax income) UPS (NYSE: UPS) 12% (approx est.) Boeing (NYSE: BA) 11.0% Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) 10.8%. |
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