Sep 24th, 2008, 12:19 | 只看该作者 #28 |
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A warning from Merrill Lynch on household debt One wag in our newsroom notes that Merrill Lynch, of all firms, would certainly know about "debt out of balance", but the firm's Canadian economist, David Wolf, is a pretty sharp cookie. His latest piece of research takes a look at level of household debt in Canada and compares it to household debt levels in the U.K. and the U.S., where rising household debt combined with rapidly falling housing prices to produce a financial crisis in those countries. His conclusion: What worries us is that Canadian households have been running a larger financial deficit than households in either the US or the UK.... After forty years of net saving, Canadian households moved into sustained deficit in 2002. In 2007, household net borrowing amounted to 6.3% of disposable income, a wider deficit than in the UK, and not far off the peak US shortfall seen in 2005. These data imply that the Canadian household sector is now overextending itself as much as the US or UK ever did, challenging the consensus view that Canadian lenders and borrowers have been far more conservative through the cycle. ... The clear 'tipping point' in the US was the emergence of falling house prices in the summer of 2006, kicking off the vicious circles that have brought the financial system and the wider economy to the brink. We're just now starting to see house prices fall in Canada, and sharp rises in unsold home inventories increasingly imply that this will not be a transitory phenomenon. From this perspective, the absence of a Canadian credit crunch to date may be cause for concern, not comfort. How can it be good that mortgage debt is growing at a double digit pace against an asset class now seeing deflation? |
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Oct 5th, 2008, 00:22 | 只看该作者 #34 |
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就算苦死也要撑到明年再看情况
现在进去,百分之八十买在山顶上,虽说是自住,或N年后再涨起来,但能花更少的钱钱买个更大的房子,何乐而不为。 尤其是要把人民币换成加币的朋友,肯定要等了。现在油价一开跌,加上加拿大经济放缓,美元到明年的期待中的反弹,加元汇率下跌是看得见的。 想想买个三十万的房,从最高汇率八到预见中的六或五点五,光这项就要省个几十万人民币了。 没有把握百分百确定这种情况会发生。希望 他会发生,我们这种情况就是人家所说的刚需,估计即使下跌趋势确定,但也等不及到山谷捡货了。 |
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Oct 5th, 2008, 01:32 | 只看该作者 #35 | |
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引用:
反正一句话,世界上不会光房子在跌,很多东西肯定也一起跌.比如工资收入.如果大家一起跌,现在买不起的房子的人,到哪个时候还是买不起. 不可能大家收入都维持或者增加,只有房子在跌的.关键看你是这个社会里面的TOP 多少%....特别是现在经济不好,股票都跌得一踏糊涂,如果大家收入还可以的话,钱该到哪里去?更何况存银行也不安全. 有钱人任何时候都买得起放,没钱人房子再跌也买不起,因为首先失业的会是这些人. |
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Oct 5th, 2008, 22:37 | 只看该作者 #37 |
good fairy
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感谢 jasmine1101 此篇文章之用户: |
dengluming (Oct 6th, 2008) |
Oct 5th, 2008, 22:51 | 只看该作者 #39 |
Grand Jedi Master
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感谢 jedi_xie 此篇文章之用户: |
dengluming (Oct 6th, 2008) |