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1987 189,105 120,881 56.44% 1988 229,635 126,925 80.92% 1989 273,698 133,271 105.37% 1990 255,020 139,934 82.24% ---------- 这几年是因为香港移民大量涌入造成房价疯涨,一过性的,作为判断楼市到顶的标准不太合适。 你的理论不错,你的房屋溢价百分比是否和通涨挂钩?通涨比率作为一个参数可能更准一点。 历史数据多几年可能更准一点。加拿大的移民政策从什么时候开始执行的,从什么时候开始统计,可能更好。 另外,只考虑独立屋的平均售价比所有房屋的平均售价要更准点。 ![]() ![]() ![]() |
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只看该作者 #31 |
刁游民
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两年前格林斯潘不也说美国房价软着陆吗? 看看今天的头条: Home values have fallen 18.4 percent since the 20-city index's peak in July 2006. Las Vegas recorded the worst drop, with prices plunging 28.4 percent in the month. Miami came in a close second, with prices down 28.3 percent. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080729/...ge/home_prices |
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只看该作者 #33 |
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我计算了一下: 1981 $90,203.00 1982 $95,496.00 $100,407.78 -5.14% 1983 $101,626.00 $105,874.63 -4.18% 1984 $102,318.00 $110,430.34 -7.93% 1985 $109,094.00 $114,803.82 -5.23% 1986 $138,925.00 $119,177.30 14.21% 1987 $189,105.00 $124,826.37 33.99% 1988 $229,635.00 $129,746.54 43.50% 1989 $273,698.00 $136,488.98 50.13% 1990 $255,020.00 $142,502.52 44.12% 1991 $234,313.00 $151,431.70 35.37% 1992 $214,971.00 $153,071.76 28.79% 1993 $206,490.00 $155,622.95 24.63% 1994 $208,921.00 $155,622.95 25.51% 1995 $203,028.00 $159,814.20 21.28% 1996 $198,150.00 $162,183.17 18.15% 1997 $211,307.00 $164,916.60 21.95% 1998 $216,815.00 $166,556.65 23.18% 1999 $228,372.00 $169,290.07 25.87% 2000 $243,255.00 $174,028.01 28.46% 2001 $251,508.00 $179,859.32 28.49% 2002 $275,231.00 $182,046.05 33.86% 2003 $293,067.00 $186,783.99 36.27% 2004 $315,231.00 $191,521.93 39.24% 2005 $335,907.00 $194,802.03 42.01% 2006 $351,941.00 $199,539.97 43.30% 2007 $376,236.00 $203,913.45 45.80% 2008 $376,236.00 $210,291.44 44.11% 计算器在Bank of Canada网站:http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/inflation_calc.html 由此可见: 1、房价上涨基本上超过CPI的上涨。 2、溢价最多在50%(89年),现在也已经差不多了。 |
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感谢 dongl 此篇文章之用户: |
ElephantSong (Jul 29th, 2008) |