Apr 4th, 2009, 01:45
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只看该作者 #41 | |
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Dr. 知之元始
  
注册日期: Nov 2007
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同学们要是觉得我是找死， 赶紧告诉我， 你们家大侄女的奶粉钱都在里面呢。 
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春天里的播种机：联通，三一，中信，浦发，西飞，金牛，金融街，金地， 紫金, 八钢。
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Apr 4th, 2009, 13:15
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只看该作者 #47 | |
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华风第二帅哥
 
注册日期: Mar 2006
帖子: 6,605
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单从TSX看，从０２年的５０００多点到现在的９０００多点，几年上涨６０％，根本看不出现在有什么经济问题。也就是做长线收益还是很高的。 ２０００年泡沫顶峰的时候TSX才１万１，去掉NT，其实２０００年北美股票大泡沫的时候TSX应该最高也只有７０００多点。（NT一人占了１／３） 当然去年最高点１万５主要是原油到了１５０，原油能不能再到１００是TSX的关键。 |
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感谢 messi 此篇文章之用户： |
FriendCalgary (Apr 4th, 2009) |
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Apr 4th, 2009, 22:39
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只看该作者 #53 |
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告别2011
 
注册日期: Jul 2004
帖子: 14,210
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霸龙周刊的周末特稿
Promises, Not Problems, Occupy Markets By KOPIN TAN Indexes ignore bad news to accentuate the positive, and get four up weeks. STOCKS RALLIED FOR -- GASP -- A FOURTH straight week, bringing fresh hurt to the thwarted but unrepentant majority who believes we're in the midst of a mere bear-market bounce. But a reprieve might not be far off. A little reflection is in order with stocks 25% above their March 9 lows: Have economic prospects brightened so much in just 19 days? The question, while legitimate, was brushed aside by a market more preoccupied lately with tomorrow's promise than today's problems. Stocks' longest advancing streak of this bear market isn't without drivers: World leaders huddling in London pledged another $1.1 trillion to stimulate the global economy. The U.S. government relaxed accounting rules that required banks to mark assets according to market value, which will make their books more opaque but will at least help banks reduce their write-downs. Still, strength of any rally is measured not just by how far stocks surge, but how they absorb the setbacks, and so far the market's willingness to accentuate the positive is remarkable. General Motors (ticker: GM) steering toward bankruptcy? Treated like old news by a market already looking ahead to restructuring and recovery. Employers laying off another 663,000 in March to send the unemployment rate to a 25-year high of 8.5%? Stocks greeted that news with a rally on Friday. According to historical script, stocks reach a bottom four or five months before a recession ends, and corporate profits turn higher four or five months after. This gives the U.S. economy an August deadline for shaping up -- if March 9 is to remain the low point for this bear market. In the coming weeks, the market's direction will depend on the extent to which this assumption is supported or refuted by economic data and, starting Tuesday, earnings reports. The Dow Jones Industrial Average kicked off April with a gain last week of 241, or 3.1%, to 8018. The Standard & Poor's 500 rallied 27, or 3.3%, to 843, and this fourth consecutive weekly rise marks its best run since October 2007. Technology stocks crossed into positive territory for 2009 as the Nasdaq Composite Index added 77, or 5%, to 1622; the 25.4% gain is the Nasdaq's best four-week run ever. The Russell 2000 index rose 27, or 6.3%, to 456 and is up 30% in four weeks. Some good news: The four-week average ratio of bullish investors to bearish ones has quickly risen to 0.94 from a record low near 0.4 three weeks ago, but is "far from the levels of 'too much bullishness,'" notes Miller Tabak technical analyst Philip Roth. Some money may have moved from cash positions to stocks, but much of the flow is driven by professionals. "The public was a negligible demand force in the equity market for much of the last up-cycle." The crop of stocks plumbing fresh lows at the New York Stock Exchange had shrunk steadily from 2,901 on Oct. 10, to 1,894 at the November low, to 827 in March, a sign fewer and fewer stocks were behind the slipping indexes. Last week, those new lows subsided further into the single digits. But the number of stocks pushing to new highs also remained in the single digits, and this brigade must expand for the rally to persist. Was the $1.1 trillion pledged to the International Monetary Fund significant? "It's not chump change, but it's not enough to get the job done," says Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research, who thinks stocks could pull back if companies report weaker-than-hoped first-quarter earnings, or if the government's plan to persuade private investors to buy bank assets gets a lukewarm response. Some less encouraging signs: Robust volume in broad-market exchange-traded funds points to transient trading by professionals looking to catch a bounce. And the stubborn refusal of the VIX volatility index to relax in the face of rallying stocks suggests professionals bracing for a potential pullback. Hope Floats: Relaxed accounting rules and more global stimulus helped the Dow rally for a fourth straight week -- its longest winning streak since October 2007. "Sustainable post-bubble rallies are not led by those stocks which are the bubble darlings," notes Societe Generale strategist James Montier, and the prominence of emerging-market, mining and financial stocks in this rally is a red flag. On the other hand, "the cozy consensus that this is just a short-term rally makes me nervous." THE STOCK MARKET'S 31.6% SLIDE BETWEEN October and March was the worst two-quarter stretch since 1974 and, before that, the Depression. Grim losses encourage the instinct to hunt for bargains, but the results are decidedly mixed, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group. Out of the nine worst two-quarter stretches in history, only five saw gains in the next three months. The average next-quarter performance was an 18% gain, but that is skewed by a pair of sharp rebounds during the early 1930s -- each more than 80%, but neither of them ultimately lasting. Only 6% of the stocks within the S&P 1500 finished this six-month stretch higher, and these rare winners suck up much attention. They include private-education stocks like Apollo Group (APOL), Corinthian Colleges (COCO), Career Education (CECO) and ITT Education (ESI), held aloft by the well-trafficked notion that waning employment must swell the back-to-school ranks. That may well be true. Apollo last week reported rising enrollment and better-than-expected profits. But the ensuing stock swoon can be blamed only partly on a litigation charge and partly on high expectations that came with stretched valuations. Casual-dining stocks that peaked well ahead of the market and which have lost more than two-thirds of their values also did well, with the likes of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Darden (DRI) up 20% over the past six months (more if you count from their 2008 lows). Newly frugal Americans still must eat out occasionally, but the boost from lower energy costs will abate now that crude oil has crept up 70% from its December low. Other beneficiaries of the fashionable thrift trade include Netflix (NFLX) and Priceline.com (PCLN), which have rallied 140% and 83%, respectively, from their 2008 lows. Will the promise of economic convalescence siphon attention from these? Already, the only two Dow stocks with gains in 2008, Wal-Mart (WMT) and McDonald's (MCD), are underwater this year as money is funneled toward more volatile stocks that might rally harder when risk appetite improves, and defensive groups like consumer staples, utilities and health care that outperformed last year have become the new laggards over the past month. The pace of that rotation toward risk should slow as the rally matures. "Expectations that upcoming tax stimulus is going to pull the economy out of its torpor ignores the reality that organic consumer income and employment fundamentals are in a very deep hole," says Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg, who thinks the 30% to 40% bounces of retailers, home builders and leisure stocks look "highly vulnerable." On the other hand, SLM (SLM), or Sallie Mae, has lost 60% of its value in the past six months as funding constricts and fears increase that new government rules will squeeze profits of private student-loan providers. But shares trading well below four times 2009 profits have attracted investors betting on SLM's shift from lending to the origination and servicing of federal student loans -- a role that might benefit from President Obama's pledge to boost college graduation rates across the country. |
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Apr 5th, 2009, 08:39
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只看该作者 #57 | |
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告别2011
注册日期: Jul 2004
帖子: 14,210
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是不是底，只有神仙才知道  个人的感觉，最后的大底也许要到今年9月或者10月才会出现，而且按照艾略特波浪理论，大盘也还需要最后一个第五浪下跌；当然市场永远正确：所以仍需要走一步看一步 老鹰说的测地没有意义，有一定道理，对于一个trader来说，确实不需要太知道；不过长线的布局仍需要一些大局观（也需要跟随市场随时调整） 这个坛子已经有100万的国内基金经理，也有了300万的跨国基金经理，还有了3000万的唯多基金经理，我从下周开始准备搞一个草根2000美元的超级迷你实盘对冲基金
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Apr 5th, 2009, 09:48
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只看该作者 #59 | |
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Senior Member
注册日期: Jul 2004
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