个人买股推荐――Petro Canada

uuu · Mar 26th, 2004, 19:47

Petro-Canada PCA-T Last Trade:Mar 26, 2004 16:41 EST
Enter New Symbol
Last: C$ 56.710 Net Change: C$ -0.040 % Change: -0.07%
Open 56.740 Bid 56.600
High 56.980 Ask 56.710
Low 56.400 EPS 6.29
Volume 838,400 P/E 9.00
52-Week High 69.690 Indicated
Annual Div. 0.60
52-Week Low 45.750 Yield 1.06

atlas · Mar 26th, 2004, 19:49

窝太滑正准备抛售手中最后13%的PETRO CAN股份.

uuu · Mar 26th, 2004, 19:56

在过去的几年该股属于大牛股。
最近利空不断，1、加拿大政府准备抛售剩余全部股份；1、科威特准备增产，石油期货最近几天跌得凶。

uuu · Mar 26th, 2004, 19:59

作为一支长期的牛股，这点恐怕无人会反驳，因为石油本身就是枯竭性资源，越到后期，其价格就越可怕，除非出现真正替代性能源。
今年，在该公司利空不断的情况下，正是小股民吸纳的好时机。
建议：50元以下，坚决吸纳，估计近期见不到如此低位，建议52元开始守株待兔。

uuu · Mar 26th, 2004, 20:04

最近看新闻的同胞都会注意到，由于中国发展迅猛，钢材、粮食、煤矿等对世界的需求造成这些原材料大幅上涨，连华尔街都表示了极大不安，不要忘了，中国发展对石油的吸纳还未真正开始。以前，恐怕我们都无法想象，国内的发展会冲击世界各种初级产品价格，现在都成了现实。

石油，价格的大幅上涨，只是时间问题，也就是美国这个老虎掐着不让上涨而已，但经济规律会终究起作用，那就是供求关系。

atlas · Mar 26th, 2004, 20:06

我不玩股票.

PETRO CAN是特鲁多当总理的时候整出来的.其目的是对抗美国公司越来越多地控制加国经济.所以该公司有很深的政府背景.后来,PETRO CAN的管理僵化,官僚主义严重,喔京决定将其私有化.一晃30年过去了,私有化很成功,PETRO CAN也成长为国际型公司.喔京决定最后放弃对他的持有.原因很简单,新内阁班子需要钱,能源股在过去几年内大热.喔京手的上SHARE已经烫的捏不住了.

喔京手上的SHARE是13%还是13亿,数字记得不清楚了.

看看各位股票专家的看法.

uuu · Mar 26th, 2004, 20:11

Most important part of news will be how Petrocan is sold

Ahhh. Finally. Petro-Canada will no longer have to deal with a major shareholder that happened to be the country's governing body, and company brass will no longer field questions from U.S. shareholders as to when the 49.4 million shares might be set free.

Now everyone knows it will be some time in the coming fiscal year that Ottawa will jettison its remaining stake in the energy giant.

It's not exactly perfect information but it is a step in the right direction.

Tuesday's announcement also served as another signal of Prime Minister Paul Martin's move to distance himself from his former boss, Jean Chrétien, as well as eliminate the last vestige of Pierre Trudeau's meddling in the affairs of the oil patch.

But the announcement of the sale was the easy part.

More difficult -- and interesting -- will be how the sale is done.

As all the investment firms begin their dance of the seven veils in front of Finance Minister Ralph Goodale and others to see who will win the mandate to structure the transaction and reap the biggest fees, this is by no means a straightforward undertaking.

The first question is whether the sale is done as a bought deal, where a group of underwriters purchase the government's stake at an agreed price for resale to investors -- usually at a modest discount to an average trading price over a defined period of time -- or as a fully marketed transaction.

The latter would mean Petrocan bears the underwriting risk because the deal is priced following a road show in which the company would make presentations to investors in major centres about the company's prospects, track record and strategy.

If investors like what they hear, the share price will go up during the course of the road show, but if they don't, it will either stay flat or trend lower. If it goes as a bought deal, the message to the market is that the underwriters are confident they can easily sell the shares to their respective clients.

But if it is fully marketed, the decision could be interpreted in one of two ways: The pessimist would suggest it's because the underwriters weren't comfortable doing the bought deal, while the optimist might say the company is taking an advantage of an opportunity to go out and tell its story and give the market more confidence as to the company's direction.

Bear in mind the stock has gone soft -- i.e., south -- in light of the announcement in January that 2004 production would be lower and reserves were being revised downward.

The share price also didn't respond all that well to an investor day held at the beginning of March where investors generally walked away underwhelmed with the company's growth prospects.

The overwhelming sentiment after the Toronto session was that the company needed to find a meaningful acquisition in order to boost reserves and production, but with commodity prices where they are and the resultant premium on assets, it's tough to do a deal that really makes sense.

With demand for Petrocan's shares at a low ebb, the fact that another 49.4 million are about to hit the market isn't good for the share price.

But in a backhanded way, it could be good for the company.

Petrocan has a very clean balance sheet. That means it could do a deal as big as $5-billion and not compromise its financial muscle.

Put the pieces together -- shares coming on the market, tepid investor demand and lots of cash and it seems to point to a share buyback of some sort.

For argument's stake, if the company did buy the entire block, it would boost profit by 10 per cent in 2005. But as one institutional shareholder put it earlier in the week, "let's see, buy back 20 per cent of the stock for a 10-per-cent boost in earnings. The math really doesn't work for me."

However, cast against declining production and the high commodity price environment making acquisitions difficult, it doesn't look like such a bad idea.

The most likely outcome is one where a portion is bought back by Petrocan, and there is a healthy allocation to institutional investors, with the rest going to the mom and pop investor.

But there is something that retail investors need to consider.

Every other Petrocan deal that has been done was structured on the buy now, pay later program -- an arrangement that makes it easier for retail investors to buy.

But that instalment structure and a share price in the mid-$50 range is not that appealing to the average retail investor.

If the federal government really wants a meaningful piece of their stake placed in the hands of the average voter, then they would be well advised to suggest to Petrocan brass that a stock split might be in order.

But when all is said and done, it's the government that will be dealt the best card: It hung onto the shares even as investment bankers told them it was time to sell and the resultant windfall will go a long way to helping Mr. Martin and his government achieve its fiscal objectives.

uuu · Mar 26th, 2004, 20:16

Flame兄，如果我是你，就把你的奔驰卖了，换成1000股这个东西，升值快得快，你那个还贬值，光好看，长面子。呵呵

atlas · Mar 26th, 2004, 20:18

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by 雾:
最近看新闻的同胞都会注意到，由于中国发展迅猛，钢材、粮食、煤矿等对世界的需求造成这些原材料大幅上涨，连华尔街都表示了极大不安，不要忘了，中国发展对石油的吸纳还未真正开始。以前，恐怕我们都无法想象，国内的发展会冲击世界各种初级产品价格，现在都成了现实。

石油，价格的大幅上涨，只是时间问题，也就是美国这个老虎掐着不让上涨而已，但经济规律会终究起作用，那就是供求关系。 <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

同意.能源价格从中长期看将保持高位.世界消费能力的增长.OPEC的战略转变(现在OPEC学会了高价不增产),中东地区局势长期的不稳定都是制约能源稳定供应的瓶颈.

加拿大的传统石油资源正面临快速衰竭.开拓海外储量是各巨头目前的兴趣所在.我记的我刚来的时候,讲过我的朋友RICHARD ANDERSON(FIRST CALGARY PETROLEUM的总裁)的公司股价去年翻13倍的故事.他在北非找到了发现.

关心能源股的朋友,可以多关注这些中小公司.

饮泉公社九大队 · Mar 26th, 2004, 20:18

政府出售的部分会有一个计划。不是一天内都卖光的。虽然是利坏，也不是太坏。

我会等。

uuu · Mar 26th, 2004, 20:25

九大队善于风险投资，本人不行，保守稳健型，我也赞成投资中小能源公司股票，但不要忘了，又投资长13倍的奇迹，就有赔光财产的大量中小案例。

atlas · Mar 26th, 2004, 20:26

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by 雾:
Flame兄，如果我是你，就把你的奔驰卖了，换成1000股这个东西，升值快得快，你那个还贬值，光好看，长面子。呵呵 <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

呵呵,我不太喜欢玩股票.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> 九大队善于风险投资，本人不行，保守稳健型，我也赞成投资中小能源公司股票，但不要忘了，又投资长13倍的奇迹，就有赔光财产的大量中小案例。 <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

是啊,关键在于平时资料的搜集.这一点九队比较厉害.我估计他平时的工作一定特别清闲

饮泉公社九大队 · Mar 26th, 2004, 20:30

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR> 九大队善于风险投资，本人不行，保守稳健型，我也赞成投资中小能源公司股票，但不要忘了，又投资长13倍的奇迹，就有赔光财产的大量中小案例。 <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

能源股大有可为。收入高的人不一定要买股票。可以买Flow-Through，冒险刺激，坐定能源类发展，还100%减税。比如工资5万，买2万的FLOW-THROUGH，只需按3万交税。

kggl · Mar 26th, 2004, 23:21

what is 'flow-through' ?

Mar 26th, 2004, 19:47	#1
uuu Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 89	Petro-Canada PCA-T Last Trade:Mar 26, 2004 16:41 EST Enter New Symbol Last: C$ 56.710 Net Change: C$ -0.040 % Change: -0.07% Open 56.740 Bid 56.600 High 56.980 Ask 56.710 Low 56.400 EPS 6.29 Volume 838,400 P/E 9.00 52-Week High 69.690 Indicated Annual Div. 0.60 52-Week Low 45.750 Yield 1.06
uuu Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 89

Mar 26th, 2004, 19:49	只看该作者 #2
atlas Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 133 声望: 0	窝太滑正准备抛售手中最后13%的PETRO CAN股份.
atlas Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 133 声望: 0

Mar 26th, 2004, 19:56	只看该作者 #3
uuu Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 89 声望: 0	在过去的几年该股属于大牛股。最近利空不断，1、加拿大政府准备抛售剩余全部股份；1、科威特准备增产，石油期货最近几天跌得凶。
uuu Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 89 声望: 0

Mar 26th, 2004, 19:59	只看该作者 #4
uuu Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 89 声望: 0	作为一支长期的牛股，这点恐怕无人会反驳，因为石油本身就是枯竭性资源，越到后期，其价格就越可怕，除非出现真正替代性能源。今年，在该公司利空不断的情况下，正是小股民吸纳的好时机。建议：50元以下，坚决吸纳，估计近期见不到如此低位，建议52元开始守株待兔。
uuu Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 89 声望: 0

Mar 26th, 2004, 20:04	只看该作者 #5
uuu Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 89 声望: 0	最近看新闻的同胞都会注意到，由于中国发展迅猛，钢材、粮食、煤矿等对世界的需求造成这些原材料大幅上涨，连华尔街都表示了极大不安，不要忘了，中国发展对石油的吸纳还未真正开始。以前，恐怕我们都无法想象，国内的发展会冲击世界各种初级产品价格，现在都成了现实。石油，价格的大幅上涨，只是时间问题，也就是美国这个老虎掐着不让上涨而已，但经济规律会终究起作用，那就是供求关系。
uuu Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 89 声望: 0

Mar 26th, 2004, 20:06	只看该作者 #6
atlas Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 133 声望: 0	我不玩股票. PETRO CAN是特鲁多当总理的时候整出来的.其目的是对抗美国公司越来越多地控制加国经济.所以该公司有很深的政府背景.后来,PETRO CAN的管理僵化,官僚主义严重,喔京决定将其私有化.一晃30年过去了,私有化很成功,PETRO CAN也成长为国际型公司.喔京决定最后放弃对他的持有.原因很简单,新内阁班子需要钱,能源股在过去几年内大热.喔京手的上SHARE已经烫的捏不住了. 喔京手上的SHARE是13%还是13亿,数字记得不清楚了. 看看各位股票专家的看法.
atlas Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 133 声望: 0

Mar 26th, 2004, 20:11	只看该作者 #7
uuu Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 89 声望: 0	Most important part of news will be how Petrocan is sold Ahhh. Finally. Petro-Canada will no longer have to deal with a major shareholder that happened to be the country's governing body, and company brass will no longer field questions from U.S. shareholders as to when the 49.4 million shares might be set free. Now everyone knows it will be some time in the coming fiscal year that Ottawa will jettison its remaining stake in the energy giant. It's not exactly perfect information but it is a step in the right direction. Tuesday's announcement also served as another signal of Prime Minister Paul Martin's move to distance himself from his former boss, Jean Chrétien, as well as eliminate the last vestige of Pierre Trudeau's meddling in the affairs of the oil patch. But the announcement of the sale was the easy part. More difficult -- and interesting -- will be how the sale is done. As all the investment firms begin their dance of the seven veils in front of Finance Minister Ralph Goodale and others to see who will win the mandate to structure the transaction and reap the biggest fees, this is by no means a straightforward undertaking. The first question is whether the sale is done as a bought deal, where a group of underwriters purchase the government's stake at an agreed price for resale to investors -- usually at a modest discount to an average trading price over a defined period of time -- or as a fully marketed transaction. The latter would mean Petrocan bears the underwriting risk because the deal is priced following a road show in which the company would make presentations to investors in major centres about the company's prospects, track record and strategy. If investors like what they hear, the share price will go up during the course of the road show, but if they don't, it will either stay flat or trend lower. If it goes as a bought deal, the message to the market is that the underwriters are confident they can easily sell the shares to their respective clients. But if it is fully marketed, the decision could be interpreted in one of two ways: The pessimist would suggest it's because the underwriters weren't comfortable doing the bought deal, while the optimist might say the company is taking an advantage of an opportunity to go out and tell its story and give the market more confidence as to the company's direction. Bear in mind the stock has gone soft -- i.e., south -- in light of the announcement in January that 2004 production would be lower and reserves were being revised downward. The share price also didn't respond all that well to an investor day held at the beginning of March where investors generally walked away underwhelmed with the company's growth prospects. The overwhelming sentiment after the Toronto session was that the company needed to find a meaningful acquisition in order to boost reserves and production, but with commodity prices where they are and the resultant premium on assets, it's tough to do a deal that really makes sense. With demand for Petrocan's shares at a low ebb, the fact that another 49.4 million are about to hit the market isn't good for the share price. But in a backhanded way, it could be good for the company. Petrocan has a very clean balance sheet. That means it could do a deal as big as $5-billion and not compromise its financial muscle. Put the pieces together -- shares coming on the market, tepid investor demand and lots of cash and it seems to point to a share buyback of some sort. For argument's stake, if the company did buy the entire block, it would boost profit by 10 per cent in 2005. But as one institutional shareholder put it earlier in the week, "let's see, buy back 20 per cent of the stock for a 10-per-cent boost in earnings. The math really doesn't work for me." However, cast against declining production and the high commodity price environment making acquisitions difficult, it doesn't look like such a bad idea. The most likely outcome is one where a portion is bought back by Petrocan, and there is a healthy allocation to institutional investors, with the rest going to the mom and pop investor. But there is something that retail investors need to consider. Every other Petrocan deal that has been done was structured on the buy now, pay later program -- an arrangement that makes it easier for retail investors to buy. But that instalment structure and a share price in the mid-$50 range is not that appealing to the average retail investor. If the federal government really wants a meaningful piece of their stake placed in the hands of the average voter, then they would be well advised to suggest to Petrocan brass that a stock split might be in order. But when all is said and done, it's the government that will be dealt the best card: It hung onto the shares even as investment bankers told them it was time to sell and the resultant windfall will go a long way to helping Mr. Martin and his government achieve its fiscal objectives.
uuu Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 89 声望: 0

Mar 26th, 2004, 20:16	只看该作者 #8
uuu Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 89 声望: 0	Flame兄，如果我是你，就把你的奔驰卖了，换成1000股这个东西，升值快得快，你那个还贬值，光好看，长面子。呵呵
uuu Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 89 声望: 0

Mar 26th, 2004, 20:18	只看该作者 #9
atlas Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 133 声望: 0	<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by 雾: 最近看新闻的同胞都会注意到，由于中国发展迅猛，钢材、粮食、煤矿等对世界的需求造成这些原材料大幅上涨，连华尔街都表示了极大不安，不要忘了，中国发展对石油的吸纳还未真正开始。以前，恐怕我们都无法想象，国内的发展会冲击世界各种初级产品价格，现在都成了现实。石油，价格的大幅上涨，只是时间问题，也就是美国这个老虎掐着不让上涨而已，但经济规律会终究起作用，那就是供求关系。 <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> 同意.能源价格从中长期看将保持高位.世界消费能力的增长.OPEC的战略转变(现在OPEC学会了高价不增产),中东地区局势长期的不稳定都是制约能源稳定供应的瓶颈. 加拿大的传统石油资源正面临快速衰竭.开拓海外储量是各巨头目前的兴趣所在.我记的我刚来的时候,讲过我的朋友RICHARD ANDERSON(FIRST CALGARY PETROLEUM的总裁)的公司股价去年翻13倍的故事.他在北非找到了发现. 关心能源股的朋友,可以多关注这些中小公司.
atlas Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 133 声望: 0

Mar 26th, 2004, 20:18	只看该作者 #10
饮泉公社九大队 Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 1,324 声望: 96886	政府出售的部分会有一个计划。不是一天内都卖光的。虽然是利坏，也不是太坏。我会等。

Mar 26th, 2004, 20:25	只看该作者 #11
uuu Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 89 声望: 0	九大队善于风险投资，本人不行，保守稳健型，我也赞成投资中小能源公司股票，但不要忘了，又投资长13倍的奇迹，就有赔光财产的大量中小案例。
uuu Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 89 声望: 0

Mar 26th, 2004, 20:26	只看该作者 #12
atlas Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 133 声望: 0	<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by 雾: Flame兄，如果我是你，就把你的奔驰卖了，换成1000股这个东西，升值快得快，你那个还贬值，光好看，长面子。呵呵 <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> 呵呵,我不太喜欢玩股票. <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> 九大队善于风险投资，本人不行，保守稳健型，我也赞成投资中小能源公司股票，但不要忘了，又投资长13倍的奇迹，就有赔光财产的大量中小案例。 <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> 是啊,关键在于平时资料的搜集.这一点九队比较厉害.我估计他平时的工作一定特别清闲
atlas Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 133 声望: 0

Mar 26th, 2004, 20:30	只看该作者 #13
饮泉公社九大队 Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 1,324 声望: 96886	<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> 九大队善于风险投资，本人不行，保守稳健型，我也赞成投资中小能源公司股票，但不要忘了，又投资长13倍的奇迹，就有赔光财产的大量中小案例。 <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> 能源股大有可为。收入高的人不一定要买股票。可以买Flow-Through，冒险刺激，坐定能源类发展，还100%减税。比如工资5万，买2万的FLOW-THROUGH，只需按3万交税。

Mar 26th, 2004, 23:21	只看该作者 #14
kggl Stranger ^_^ 注册日期: Jul 2004 住址: 地球上最大的农村! 帖子: 8,450 声望: 2347870	what is 'flow-through' ?