在美上市的8个中国太阳能股 - 第3页

SR88 · Sep 4th, 2007, 13:25

引用:

作者: SR88

看来对太阳能股感兴趣的人不多, 以后不贴了,自己玩了...

Swing trading Chinese solar stocks is better than anything now, at least to me, solar stocks is hot again and will continue for a week or so before another break, LDK, STP, TSL, even at current price level, are still good candidates. LDK is leading the sector and will fly long term.

up2you · Sep 4th, 2007, 13:33

I have YGE, but LDK seems to be the market leader

up2you · Sep 4th, 2007, 13:54

YGE is flying again also

SR88 · Sep 4th, 2007, 23:33

Though YGE is rising in price but it is over valued at current price over $18. Here is the reason:

YGE Q1: Rev 55m, Net Income 1.1m, EPS 0.02,
YGE Q2: Rev 118.4m, Net Income 9.4m, EPS 0.06,
06上半年总计: Rev 173.4m, Net Income 10.5m, EPS 0.08, Net margin 6%
Estimate Q3E: Rev 135-140m, Net Income 11-12m,
Q4E Rev 160-165m, Net Income 13-14m

2007全年预期: 总Rev 460m-480m (on shipment of 130-135mw at average $3.5 per watt)., Net income 34m-36m, EPS $0.34-36, that is over 45 times of 2007 PE, while others such as LDK, STP, JASO, TSL is around 20 to 30 times of 2007 PE.

The low net income is caused by the fact that Tianwei Baoding takes away about 30% of YGE's net income each quarter (Tianwei Baoding owns 29.1% of Tianwei Yinlin). 这就是ANALYSTS给YGE的PRICE TARGET $16 的原因. 只要天威保定继续从YGE的利润中扣除部分赢利, YGE的净利润和EPS就会保持低位.

在投资人看来, 营业收入和净利润同时增长才是最重要的. Compare to LDK, STP, TSL, JASO, YGE's net income and EPS is very low and remain so for a long time.

SR88 · Sep 4th, 2007, 23:43

IMO, among the 8 Chinese solar stocks, LDK and STP looks better. LDK is a high growth with best margin rate. Though it looks pricy at 55 level but it will continue to go a much higher level for sure. STP is a blue chip solar stock. Blue chips never suffer or enjoy the same price swings as speculative stocks such as TSL, YGE. If you invest based on volatility, go with TSL, JASO, YGE etc. as we see many who are currently invested in solar are attracted to volatility. For long term investment LDK and STP are better choices. TSL, JASO, YGE are follow-ups, and CSUN, SOLF, CSIQ are falling behind (although CSUN has great potential for fast bounce back). Just ask the question: who will be the dominant players in solar three years from now? I think LDK and STP will leave others in the dust...

up2you · Sep 5th, 2007, 10:22

YGE and LDk are the only 2 Chinese solar stock in green, keep watching

SR88 · Sep 5th, 2007, 10:49

LDK is making new 52-wk high at $58.44 now in a down market, very strong upward trend, any dip is a good buying opportunity...

the other green solar is CSUN rebound back 20%+ in the past few days

YGE, sooner or later, people will realize it is not cheap, it is already trending down...

ryxtony · Sep 5th, 2007, 11:29

YGE is coming back again. Wish it will tough $20 later.

zhuroy · Sep 5th, 2007, 18:07

引用:

作者: ryxtony

YGE is coming back again. Wish it will tough $20 later.

From the trend, it will; However I will not buy it now

ryxtony · Sep 5th, 2007, 18:14

next time, I will post it here immediately after I buy it. But you have to judge it by yourself. good luck!

SR88 · Sep 11th, 2007, 22:02

bot TSL yesterday at 42.60 for a nice gain so far. If it can break 50 resistance tomorrow, upward swing will continue for a couple of days.

Continue to hold LDK and STP Dec options. LDK is doing well but STP stock price increased $2 since I bot the option, but option price no change at all due to low voliativity.

YGE is moving up nicely but a correction is due... JASO is running out of gas... apparently MM and DT players now focus on TSL and YGE now...

SR88 · Sep 15th, 2007, 16:31

STP and TSL are moving up very steadily... JASO, YGE falling from high as expected

如来云 · Sep 16th, 2007, 13:21

引用:

作者: SR88

STP and TSL are moving up very steadily... JASO, YGE falling from high as expected

Please continue to share your opinion on solar energy. LDK is in my watch list due to your recommendation and I'm going to invest for long term. Many thanks!

SR88 · Sep 17th, 2007, 10:22

LDK is poising to make 52-wk high again, now over 59, one step away... as usual any dip is a good entry point for swing...

STP -- continue to move up steadily... now 38.32 ...

CSUN got long-term wafer supply contracts... is going to rebound... up more than 10% today...

up2you · Sep 18th, 2007, 14:39

兵装入主天威，并称要回购YGE股份，那YGE的价格是不是又要上了？

SR88 · Sep 23rd, 2007, 21:58

油价升,太阳能股现在是热门,很有前(钱)途,继续看好...

LDK 越走越高,趋势明显,领涨...
TSL,STP发扬近期强势走高,只要大市不跌,还要走一段...
CSUN,SOLF 反弹中,但力量还不够大,蓄势待发...
JASO,YGE 好股,走势强,但有阶段高位之险...注意防止高位被套...

FSLR, SPWR, WFR 都是美国投资人的追捧对象,每次跌都会被重新推上去, 只要太阳版块仍被看好, 还会继续走高...

个人偏见...

SR88 · Sep 23rd, 2007, 22:05

多说几句CSUN:

中电光伏(CSUN)是个有实力有技术的公司，它是南京中电集团新发展的重点项目，也是南京市的重点扶持的支柱产业，其年生产能力今年初就已达到192MW，产能在TSL, JASO，SOLF之上．但是很遗憾，CSUN高层错误判断了国际硅料的走势，没有抓住时机在２００６或２００７年初签下长期低价硅料供应的大合同．这个重大失误导致现在的硅料来源困境，影响了企业的发展受挫，使股价连连下跌．．．最新上任的ＣＥＯ第一件事就是牵了新的硅片供应合同，另外,CSUN投资的大成硅业现已进入试产，新键的4条切片机生产组线，预计近期将全部投产，投产后将具备年产1000万片硅片的能力，产品全部供应给中电光伏…ＣＳＵＮ有望今年底明年初走出低谷，现在主要是看Ｑ３和Ｑ４的报表了．．．总之，目前CSUN的６－７美元的低价位是很有吸引力的，上升的空间远大于继续下降的风险．．．

公司网站:
http://www.chinasunergy.com/cn/index.php

SR88 · Sep 23rd, 2007, 22:29

兵装入主天威是最近YGE股价飙升的主要原因, YGE是个高成长公司,尤其是REVENUE, 但净利低是偶不看好的主要原因, 07上半年才$0.08, 而且天威保定继续从YGE的利润中扣除拿走进30%利润,YGE的净收入和EPS就会保持低位...

还有TSL和JASO比较一下:

JASO也是高成长的好公司, 但最近连出2个坏消息, 一个是因产品质量出问题被SPWR取消了一个多年的大定单, 一个是再发行6.4M 的ADR (包括INSIDER 2.4M), 进一步稀释流通股, 结果不跌反涨,继续闯历史新高... 感到阶段CORRECTION在即...

TSL业绩和赢利水平差不多, Q报表很好, 而且是垂直整合性公司,能自己生产轨料, 硅片,电池,组件... 可是目前只有JASO市值的60%, 属于UNDERVALUED, 应该会继续上升到和JASO市值相当的价位...

个人偏见...

SR88 · Sep 23rd, 2007, 22:42

引用:

作者: 如来云

Please continue to share your opinion on solar energy. LDK is in my watch list due to your recommendation and I'm going to invest for long term. Many ...

LDK is equivalent to BIDU, GOOD in internet sector...

I follow this stock from the very beginning and traded in and out several times already. I believe it will move well into the 100 level next year unless some big negative news (such as its polysilicon expansion plan failed) fundamentally changed the company's future.

a very solid long-term investment candidate....

zhutiger · Sep 23rd, 2007, 23:53

SOLF 为何这么弱?

Sep 23rd, 2007, 23:53	只看该作者 #60
zhutiger Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 451 声望: 12199	SOLF 为何这么弱?
zhutiger Senior Member 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 451 声望: 12199

Sep 4th, 2007, 13:33	只看该作者 #42
up2you 16777216 --- 鑫森淼焱垚注册日期: Apr 2007 住址: 加国安省滑市帖子: 489 声望: 4093829	I have YGE, but LDK seems to be the market leader

Sep 4th, 2007, 13:54	只看该作者 #43
up2you 16777216 --- 鑫森淼焱垚注册日期: Apr 2007 住址: 加国安省滑市帖子: 489 声望: 4093829	YGE is flying again also

Sep 4th, 2007, 23:33	只看该作者 #44
SR88 Senior Member 注册日期: Jun 2007 帖子: 234 积分:1 精华:1 声望: 0	Though YGE is rising in price but it is over valued at current price over $18. Here is the reason: YGE Q1: Rev 55m, Net Income 1.1m, EPS 0.02, YGE Q2: Rev 118.4m, Net Income 9.4m, EPS 0.06, 06上半年总计: Rev 173.4m, Net Income 10.5m, EPS 0.08, Net margin 6% Estimate Q3E: Rev 135-140m, Net Income 11-12m, Q4E Rev 160-165m, Net Income 13-14m 2007全年预期: 总Rev 460m-480m (on shipment of 130-135mw at average $3.5 per watt)., Net income 34m-36m, EPS $0.34-36, that is over 45 times of 2007 PE, while others such as LDK, STP, JASO, TSL is around 20 to 30 times of 2007 PE. The low net income is caused by the fact that Tianwei Baoding takes away about 30% of YGE's net income each quarter (Tianwei Baoding owns 29.1% of Tianwei Yinlin). 这就是ANALYSTS给YGE的PRICE TARGET $16 的原因. 只要天威保定继续从YGE的利润中扣除部分赢利, YGE的净利润和EPS就会保持低位. 在投资人看来, 营业收入和净利润同时增长才是最重要的. Compare to LDK, STP, TSL, JASO, YGE's net income and EPS is very low and remain so for a long time.

Sep 4th, 2007, 23:43	只看该作者 #45
SR88 Senior Member 注册日期: Jun 2007 帖子: 234 积分:1 精华:1 声望: 0	IMO, among the 8 Chinese solar stocks, LDK and STP looks better. LDK is a high growth with best margin rate. Though it looks pricy at 55 level but it will continue to go a much higher level for sure. STP is a blue chip solar stock. Blue chips never suffer or enjoy the same price swings as speculative stocks such as TSL, YGE. If you invest based on volatility, go with TSL, JASO, YGE etc. as we see many who are currently invested in solar are attracted to volatility. For long term investment LDK and STP are better choices. TSL, JASO, YGE are follow-ups, and CSUN, SOLF, CSIQ are falling behind (although CSUN has great potential for fast bounce back). Just ask the question: who will be the dominant players in solar three years from now? I think LDK and STP will leave others in the dust...

Sep 5th, 2007, 10:22	只看该作者 #46
up2you 16777216 --- 鑫森淼焱垚注册日期: Apr 2007 住址: 加国安省滑市帖子: 489 声望: 4093829	YGE and LDk are the only 2 Chinese solar stock in green, keep watching

Sep 5th, 2007, 10:49	只看该作者 #47
SR88 Senior Member 注册日期: Jun 2007 帖子: 234 积分:1 精华:1 声望: 0	LDK is making new 52-wk high at $58.44 now in a down market, very strong upward trend, any dip is a good buying opportunity... the other green solar is CSUN rebound back 20%+ in the past few days YGE, sooner or later, people will realize it is not cheap, it is already trending down...

Sep 5th, 2007, 11:29	只看该作者 #48
ryxtony Senior Member 注册日期: Aug 2006 帖子: 613 声望: 1720665	YGE is coming back again. Wish it will tough $20 later.

Sep 5th, 2007, 18:14	只看该作者 #50
ryxtony Senior Member 注册日期: Aug 2006 帖子: 613 声望: 1720665	next time, I will post it here immediately after I buy it. But you have to judge it by yourself. good luck!

Sep 11th, 2007, 22:02	只看该作者 #51
SR88 Senior Member 注册日期: Jun 2007 帖子: 234 积分:1 精华:1 声望: 0	bot TSL yesterday at 42.60 for a nice gain so far. If it can break 50 resistance tomorrow, upward swing will continue for a couple of days. Continue to hold LDK and STP Dec options. LDK is doing well but STP stock price increased $2 since I bot the option, but option price no change at all due to low voliativity. YGE is moving up nicely but a correction is due... JASO is running out of gas... apparently MM and DT players now focus on TSL and YGE now...

Sep 15th, 2007, 16:31	只看该作者 #52
SR88 Senior Member 注册日期: Jun 2007 帖子: 234 积分:1 精华:1 声望: 0	STP and TSL are moving up very steadily... JASO, YGE falling from high as expected

Sep 17th, 2007, 10:22	只看该作者 #54
SR88 Senior Member 注册日期: Jun 2007 帖子: 234 积分:1 精华:1 声望: 0	LDK is poising to make 52-wk high again, now over 59, one step away... as usual any dip is a good entry point for swing... STP -- continue to move up steadily... now 38.32 ... CSUN got long-term wafer supply contracts... is going to rebound... up more than 10% today...

Sep 18th, 2007, 14:39	只看该作者 #55
up2you 16777216 --- 鑫森淼焱垚注册日期: Apr 2007 住址: 加国安省滑市帖子: 489 声望: 4093829	兵装入主天威，并称要回购YGE股份，那YGE的价格是不是又要上了？

Sep 23rd, 2007, 21:58	只看该作者 #56
SR88 Senior Member 注册日期: Jun 2007 帖子: 234 积分:1 精华:1 声望: 0	油价升,太阳能股现在是热门,很有前(钱)途,继续看好... LDK 越走越高,趋势明显,领涨... TSL,STP发扬近期强势走高,只要大市不跌,还要走一段... CSUN,SOLF 反弹中,但力量还不够大,蓄势待发... JASO,YGE 好股,走势强,但有阶段高位之险...注意防止高位被套... FSLR, SPWR, WFR 都是美国投资人的追捧对象,每次跌都会被重新推上去, 只要太阳版块仍被看好, 还会继续走高... 个人偏见...

Sep 23rd, 2007, 22:05	只看该作者 #57
SR88 Senior Member 注册日期: Jun 2007 帖子: 234 积分:1 精华:1 声望: 0	多说几句CSUN: 中电光伏(CSUN)是个有实力有技术的公司，它是南京中电集团新发展的重点项目，也是南京市的重点扶持的支柱产业，其年生产能力今年初就已达到192MW，产能在TSL, JASO，SOLF之上．但是很遗憾，CSUN高层错误判断了国际硅料的走势，没有抓住时机在２００６或２００７年初签下长期低价硅料供应的大合同．这个重大失误导致现在的硅料来源困境，影响了企业的发展受挫，使股价连连下跌．．．最新上任的ＣＥＯ第一件事就是牵了新的硅片供应合同，另外,CSUN投资的大成硅业现已进入试产，新键的4条切片机生产组线，预计近期将全部投产，投产后将具备年产1000万片硅片的能力，产品全部供应给中电光伏…ＣＳＵＮ有望今年底明年初走出低谷，现在主要是看Ｑ３和Ｑ４的报表了．．．总之，目前CSUN的６－７美元的低价位是很有吸引力的，上升的空间远大于继续下降的风险．．．公司网站: http://www.chinasunergy.com/cn/index.php

Sep 23rd, 2007, 22:29	只看该作者 #58
SR88 Senior Member 注册日期: Jun 2007 帖子: 234 积分:1 精华:1 声望: 0	兵装入主天威是最近YGE股价飙升的主要原因, YGE是个高成长公司,尤其是REVENUE, 但净利低是偶不看好的主要原因, 07上半年才$0.08, 而且天威保定继续从YGE的利润中扣除拿走进30%利润,YGE的净收入和EPS就会保持低位... 还有TSL和JASO比较一下: JASO也是高成长的好公司, 但最近连出2个坏消息, 一个是因产品质量出问题被SPWR取消了一个多年的大定单, 一个是再发行6.4M 的ADR (包括INSIDER 2.4M), 进一步稀释流通股, 结果不跌反涨,继续闯历史新高... 感到阶段CORRECTION在即... TSL业绩和赢利水平差不多, Q报表很好, 而且是垂直整合性公司,能自己生产轨料, 硅片,电池,组件... 可是目前只有JASO市值的60%, 属于UNDERVALUED, 应该会继续上升到和JASO市值相当的价位... 个人偏见...