2008年house,townhouse房价还能继续涨吗?

[1970]

Only after Apr & May, you can see the trend. It is too early to forecast now.

[1970]

作者: deeplies

要注意最近涨得快, 是因为大家都想避开新的税, 并不等于08年会增长. 等这阵风过了, 就知道涨跌了.

Let's try to imagine how the TAX influence the market(For example Toronto):

STAGE 1--NOV&DEC-2007
Some people decided to buy the house before Jan-2008; The record and price increased;

STAGE 2--Q1-2008
For the first 2 months, most people would wait and see, so the record would be drop down, but the price should keep the same; (Both buyer & Seller want to wait)
And then after 2 months, Value<40W houses would be hot, some houses original 33-35W, increased to 38-39W;
40W<Value<45W houses: hard to sell, but list price would not drop down immediately; However, the buyer should have more room for negotiation;
Value>50W: Keep hot, because the tax for rich people mean nothing, especially for second buyer, they already earned money from their first house sold in 2007.

STAGE 3-Q2&Q3-2008
40W<Value<45W houses: becasue list for long time, some houses price down to 38-39W; Compared the orignal Value 33-35W, but increased to 38-39W houses, of course the orignal Value >40W houses better, so some 38-39W houses price drop down back to 33-35W or lower;

STAGE 4-Q4-2008
People are already comfortable and accept the TAX, the price and record would increase again, but slightly; Considering Oil price & Exchange rate, maybe drop down, also slightly;

For summarize my opinion:
Freehold or low maintenance fee Townhouse would be hot( for immigrants & first buyer)
Condo might keep hot (depends on the maintenance fee);
>50W house still hot (Second buyers);
for 30-50W houses, might drop down slightly but depends on individual case, negotiation is more important than before.

[1970]

作者: 小散户

不是讨论房价的,请另立门户!拜托!

Finally, we are back;

Let's try to imagine how the TAX influence the market(For example Toronto):

STAGE 1--NOV&DEC-2007
Some people decided to buy the house before Jan-2008; The record and price increased;

STAGE 2--Q1-2008
For the first 2 months, most people would wait and see, so the record would be drop down, but the price should keep the same; (Both buyer & Seller want to wait)
And then after 2 months, Value<40W houses would be hot, some houses original 33-35W, increased to 38-39W;
40W<Value<45W houses: hard to sell, but list price would not drop down immediately; However, the buyer should have more room for negotiation;
Value>50W: Keep hot, because the tax for rich people mean nothing, especially for second buyer, they already earned money from their first house sold in 2007.

STAGE 3-Q2&Q3-2008
40W<Value<45W houses: becasue list for long time, some houses price down to 38-39W; Compared the orignal Value 33-35W, but increased to 38-39W houses, of course the orignal Value >40W houses better, so some 38-39W houses price drop down back to 33-35W or lower;

STAGE 4-Q4-2008
People are already comfortable and accept the TAX, the price and record would increase again, but slightly; Considering Oil price & Exchange rate, maybe drop down, also slightly;

For summarize my opinion:
Freehold or low maintenance fee Townhouse would be hot( for immigrants & first buyer)
Condo might keep hot (depends on the maintenance fee, some Investors are interested in this market );
>50W house still hot (Second buyers);
for 30-50W houses, might drop down slightly but depends on individual case, negotiation skill is more important than before.