我考虑目前买房比租房划算的原因，请评论

[到底谁傻]

过去２５年，SP/TSX的年均回报率是９.５％， ５ 万买SP/TSX Index， ２５年后变5*(1+9.5%)^25=48.34万

８０年卡城平均房价91000，２００５年12月卡城平均房价273716，可是没有一年长一万。

作者: 李大哥

1、买房和租房比较支出、收益情况，要相同大小的房子进行比较。

2、买个1100尺两层的、三卧室的新的SINGLE HOUSE，没有车库，现在卡城的价格是23万，首付5万，贷款18万，25年还清，每月还1000元。

3、租同样的房子，每月租金1000元，房屋水电费、气费自己承担。把5万元存到银行，或做存款或购买长期债券，25年后5万变成10万。

4、买房和租房支出大致相同。25年后，买房人的残值是一套属于自己的房子，如果房子没升值，残值是23万，如果按每年升值1万元算，房子的残值是48万。如果考虑卖出，由于是自己居住的房子，还免交所得税。

5、租房住的人，残值是10万，由于要交所得税，按40％税率算，交税2万。到手应该是只有8万。

6、买房的人残值是23－48万，租房的人残值是8万。同样的享受，同样的支出，谁受益大，不是很清楚吗？

[到底谁傻]

第一个问题：

因为不动产根本不是无风险资产，所以用政府债券和定期存款比是不恰当的。用风险低, well diversified 的投资指数比（比如sp/tsx index）比较恰当。

第二个问题：

投资买房和投资买股票，赚的钱同样都交capital gain tax，投资不动产的费用和投资股票的费用都tax deductable，在此二者没有区别。

另外，８０年买２３万房子的人可能比８０年把５万放在微软股票的差不多多，还是微软赚得多吧？

作者: 李大哥

我觉得有两个问题，
1、是所有基金都有这么高的平均回报吗？再说，投资人是要承担风险的，怎么能保证所买的基金一定能盈利呢？因此，比较的基础，就要选择无风险的投资来进行比较。现在存款帐户的利息就年利率2.6%,10年期美元债券也就百分之四点几。我取个3％的年收益，1.03的25次方是2.09，所以才说5万变成10万。就算是4％的年收益，25年也不过本利13万，5％的年收益，以不过本利16.9万。

2、也不能简单的算25次方，因为，每年投资收益要交税，税后再投资就没那么多了。所以说“5*(1+9.5%)^25=48.34万”这个数是不准的。当然，我的5万变10万也有这个问题。

我说的一年涨一万，是尽量保守的说法。如果按你的数据，从91000元涨到273716元，是上涨了200％，那样的话，23万的房子，25年后，价格应该是69万。还是比你的48万高。

[到底谁傻]

好，就说同一个人，在买房和买股票两种情形下智力完全一样，只知道买房时地点最重要或只知道股票指数比较安全，都没有那么聪敏也没有那么运气挑最好的买。所以我用平均房价
和平均股市比。另外，如果８０年买２３万的房子，首付５万，贷１８万，８０－９５年平均年利率是１０％以上，就算１1％，头１５年每月利息费用就>１6００刀。再有，１）自住房贷款利息不减税，投资用贷款利息可减税，２）投资有分红可再投，３）资产增值税率远少于所得税率，４）资产增值的头５０万免资产增值税...

作者: 李大哥

1、咱们在比较买房自住和租房住哪个更合适，不是比较投资。

作为自己住的房子，房子卖出时，升值部分，不用交税。这和投资买基金，有很大的不同。

2、投资房子的风险几乎就没有，特别是从25年的时间跨度来看。25年时间里是5年平，3年跌，17年涨。

3、买股票和基金就不同了。你就不要提微软的股票了。80年时谁能保证它能大涨？你怎么不提从300元跌到几分钱的股票呢？问题是谁能选准股？买房却不同，不论什么房，只要是新房，未来的趋势就是上涨。

4、作为基金经理，25年内业绩能超过股票指数的，全世界也屈指可数。因此，聪明的基金经理干脆就买成分股，比如买SP标准普尔指数的成分股。就算是这样，25年下来，年平均回报率9％，如果减去扣税，年平均能达到5％就不错了。

5、如果买房子，自己住，25年升值200％，23万的房子变成69万的房子，5万投资，收益64万，年平均回报11％多。

[到底谁傻]

My point is 如果清清楚楚地算，一项一项地算，过去２５年买和租同样的房子住，买不一定比租合算，今后也是一样。

准确的说法应当是买单个房子比买单个股票风险小，买房子是既享受了又拥有了，但认为买房子的长期比租房子的今后会富有，那是myth.

作者: 李大哥

1、自住房贷款利息低，投资用贷款利息高的多。这差别至少有几个百分点。利息减税和这利差比起来，微不足道。

2、买房自住，买出时，根本就不交税。

3、如果买房用来投资，那么贷款的利息，一样可以享受减税的好处。

4、资产增值税我不十分清楚。

[到底谁傻]

算通货膨胀是不包括房价的。通货膨胀高，利率高，房价会跌。房价都是在通货膨胀低利率低是才长得好。1996年利率趋跌，房价尚未起步，进房地产是好时候。现在通货膨胀显势利率法攀升,房价近峰尖，此时进房市绝不可能为了赚钱，基本上是为享受。

作者: 李大哥

利率为什么会那么高？

因为政府要抑止通货膨胀；

既然通货膨胀了，那么在此之前，物价肯定有个大涨的过程。如果是在80年以前买的房子，房子肯定升值一大部分了。即使利息高一点，和房子已经升值比起来，还是微不足道。

如果是在80年买房，我认为时机不好，因为利率太高。即使买了，到了2005年房子升值200％，利息在随后的几年里也逐渐下降了，负担并不重。总的算来，还是合算。

如果买股票，利率涨，企业盈利下降，股票一样跌。投资股票损失更大。

如果利率下降，股票涨，房价一样上涨，买房人也不吃亏。

[到底谁傻]

享受的问题更复杂。还有人觉得买个小飞机飞着玩比买房子还叫享受呢！

作者: sky walker

嗨，讲那么多道理做什么？人活着为啥？老了有一大笔钱？到那时恐怕也无福享受了叭。
有能力还是先给自己（家人）买间房，过生活是过现在的，然后再考虑投资叭。

[到底谁傻]

这说明清楚的人是不会在房子或股票一棵树上拴着，高利率时就还买债券了.不过过去好几十年证明股市比房市平均回报高，有什么办法。

作者: 李大哥

利率为什么会那么高？

因为政府要抑止通货膨胀；

既然通货膨胀了，那么在此之前，物价肯定有个大涨的过程。如果是在80年以前买的房子，房子肯定升值一大部分了。即使利息高一点，和房子已经升值比起来，还是微不足道。

如果是在80年买房，我认为时机不好，因为利率太高。即使买了，到了2005年房子升值200％，利息在随后的几年里也逐渐下降了，负担并不重。总的算来，还是合算。

如果买股票，利率涨，企业盈利下降，股票一样跌。投资股票损失更大。

如果利率下降，股票涨，房价一样上涨，买房人也不吃亏。

[到底谁傻]

利率是最重要的因素，房价对利率反应有滞后，从美国的利率已经长了１年半，现在房价才有反应。如果谁说：“如何解释，2005年利率上涨，LA的房价也上涨？”今年一月分的统计LA２００５年１２月降了0.2%，就回答了这个问题。

另外因为建筑材料涨价付高房价更危险，因为这时最是利率要长，最是房价有可能被抑制，自己最容易买高持低的时候。

作者: 李大哥

房价可不是由利率一个因素决定的。否则，如何解释，2005年利率上涨，卡城的房价也上涨？

通货膨胀开始的时候，物价上涨，货币贬值，房价怎么能不上涨？水泥、木材都涨价了，房价怎么能不上涨？

[到底谁傻]

You are right, to purchase stocks is pure investment but to buy a house to live is investment + consumption.

From the stand point of consumption, one can not claim (and I don't believe anyone does) buying a house is the best consumption because different people have different preferences, e.g. as I said in a post above, some people feel more happy owning a small airplane than owning a house, or travelling around the globe than owning a house.

From the stand point of investment, one can not claim buying a house is the best investment (although it maybe more secure than some other investments, abeit not as safe as government bonds or GIC). You may be right that in the next 20 years we may not see 10+% bank rate again (but who knows!). However, it's the opportunity cost one has to consider. Once your money is tied up in your house, it can't be used in many blue chip stocks that can bring you higher return with similar risk profile as your house, e.g. Royal Bank stock or Altria Group and many more.

My point is that "buying a house makes one richer than not buying" is a myth and that "buying a house makes one's life more enjoyable than not buying" is a myth too. Buying a house is only one form of consumption that appeals some more than others. Buying a house is only one form of investment that appeals people with certain risk tolerance levels. The only advantage of buying a house and living in it is that one can eat the cake and also have it. Buying a house and letting some one else live in it doesn't even have that advantage.

作者: samqyang

But 买股票 really can't compare to 买房 (Sorry, don't have CHN input now);

I can within my whole life never 买股票 but I don't think I can never 买房 in my life; 股票指数 is just a number like the money in your bank account, but having a 房 is for sure different than having 股票; one is spent (买房) and one (买股票) is invest;

And I can make one bet with you; I don't think within feture 20 years, you can see the 平均年利率是１０％以上, not even close; Why, the world is smaller than 80s; IF any country or bank willing to pay 10% interest, then all other banks' or countries' money will flow over; which means more money will move in but less money borrowed by people, From banks' perspective, they don't like high interest rate at all; Unless all the major countrys average at 10% over (US, CA, JAP, GER, ENG, AUS, PRC, RUS, etc...);

[到底谁傻]

0.2% was month-over-month decline. If annualize it, it was 2.4% and it's just a beginning. My point is that the worst entry point is when inflation, interest is on the rise and the housing price is approaching its peak.

作者: 李大哥

之前几年LA的房价涨了50％不止，现在跌个0.2％算什么？再正常不过了。

[到底谁傻]

There are always more people buying into the rally and selling into the dip than those who do the opposite.

作者: CBC

80-81年VANCOUVER的房价跌了近25%，89-96年TORONTO的房价跌了也差不多25%。80-81年地产暴跌应该是世界范围的，当时的石油和黄金价格都创出历史新高，现在的情况和当年有很多相似的地方，当石油和黄金见顶，地产崩盘估计避免不了的。会重现1980年一幕股票，石油，黄金，地产全线下跌的情景。所有的资产泡沫都被吹大的情况下一起都要破灭

[到底谁傻]

Savvy investors or consumers not only think about the tangible costs (e.g. mortgage rates) but also the opportunity costs (e.g. what one has to give up).

作者: 李大哥

现在还没到那时候，如果存款利率达到10％以上，我就不买房，把钱存银行，租房子住。可是，现在存款利率才百分之二点几，担心什么呢？

利率从3％升到10％还有很长的路程，而且这个过程肯定是个物价飞涨的过程。如果物价不飞涨，干吗提高利率？既然物价飞涨，房价凭什么不飞涨？这样，到存款利率10％的时候，投资买房的人早就赚大发了。到时，卖不卖，不是很主动吗？

因此，现在肯定不是你说的逃顶的时候。

[到底谁傻]

The Bank of Canada rate was just raised to 3.5% on Jan 24. The market believes that an economic "neutral" (i.e. the rate that won't over heat the economy or drastically slow down economy) is 5% (so it's unlikely that the Bank of Canada rate goes beyond 5% in a year or two). If the Bank rate creeps up to 5%, commercial banks prime rate may reach to 6.75%. Of course mortgage rates should be lower than that.

However, the housing market is closely related with the economy not just the mortgage rates. What happened in the last many years was that low interest rates ==>> higher and higher housing prices ==>> increased wealth due to increased property value (for those who have properties already) ==>> increased borrowings backed by properties ==>> high levels of consumption financed by personal debts ==>> high levels of economy activities (70% of US GDP comes from personal consumption. Canada is a bit lower). In the past, these should have led to high inflation. However, huge amount of cheap consumer goods imported from China prolonged that process. Although the process is prolonged, it doesn't mean that inflation pressure is not there. Now we are seeing prices of commodities going through the roof and employment rate in Canada standing at 30-year high. The impact of interest rate increase is not just directly reduce the mortgage service ability of property owners, it also has negative impact on real estate market in an indirect way, i.e. tighten the debt-backed consumptions and ==>> slow down economic growth ==>>slow down or even negatate income growth == > less $$ going into real estate market==> cooling down of the housing prices.

After the 1 and 1/2 + year interest raise in US, Q4 US GDP growth was significantly lower than expected. When the full blown impact of US interest rate increase appears, when the Chinese are stuck with massive unprofitible production capacities after the 2008 Olympics (by the way, 2005 Chinese oil imports already dropped compared with 2004 levels), who's going to buy our oil? (Although I wish everyone including myself who own properties good luck), 2006 Calgary housing prices may not be at THE peak but close enough in my view.

作者: samqyang

Interest Rate is the key;

Please go http://www.bcrealtor.com/d_bkcan.htm here to see the Bank of Canada 50 years interest rate chart;

At 80-81年, Interest Rate is over 15% and never happened again after;
89-96年, Interest Rate at short term (I consider 10 years from 85 to 95) peak at 89年, and then even the rate go down but Real Estate still drop until 96年,

Apparently, there is a delay if you compare the interest rate peek time to the house peek time; That's why at the first few years of interest rate hike period, the house price keep going up; Because most people are still in buying mode before they cool down by the impact of interest rates hike;

So, my predication within 2 years, the house price will hold or slowly moving up there, and 2 years later may go down; And this predication only valid if interest rate keep going up steadly;

which means another 1-2% interest rate hike can make housing market cool down; And another 4-5% interest rate hike will for sure kill the market;

And today, the interest rate is still in the historcal vally, not enough to make the market slide down dramatically;

How fast the interest rate goes up will direct how bad the market will be;

So, the major point is, how soon the interest rate can above 6%, I mean bank of canada center rate;

[到底谁傻]

Totally agree. If these rounds of interest hike can yield a soft landing scenario, we should all feel very lucky.

作者: CBC

现在因为经济全球化，通货膨胀比以前要小的多。所以利率要达到以前的10%左右是不可能的，不过价格的涨幅已经把低利率的优势消耗干净。我觉得北美正在走90年日本和97年香港的老路，由地产引发的经济大衰退和股市崩盘是不可避免的，而且杀伤力会很大。
前些天跟个建筑师聊，他说多伦多的CONDO市场已经比较危险了。以他亲身经历，91年的时候经济大衰退，从事建筑设计的人员多伦多市有50%被LAYOFF。

[到底谁傻]

It's up to each individual to decide if he/she should bail or change life style. This is because the house we live serves dual purpose, consumption and investment. Consumption decision is made based on one's preference so no one else can feel the pain or joy.

Sigh; Even if everything you said is right, does that mean I should sell my current home and hold the cash, wait for another at least >5 years until the market down to the bottom;

Many people can't but some can. Again this decision is largely related with different people's preferences.

I can wait >5 years for a stock, but how many people here can wait >5 years for a home; How many young 5 years do we have when most of us at 30+;

What you'd have saved (or gained) will be the opportunity cost you lose by owning a house (e.g. your money is tied up in the house instead of earning some returns elsewhere) plus the value you lose in the house plus the expense you have to pay in the house. Of course, weather it's worth the change in life style, it's up to you to evaluate.

And if you are right, 5 years later, 20% of house price down (almost the worst situation in Canada history), which means 400K house today by 2011 is 320K; I have to rent for another 5 years (if 1000$ monthly rent, 60 K needed at least for 5 years); I saved 20K = 400K - 320K - 60K, but how much I lost; 5 years of my strong youngest life), 20K saved for 5 years totally different life style;

This is the typical and a normal response when people foresee inflation. Today's "inflation" is largely reflected in the value of property and commodities (although core inflation measurement includes neither of them), that's why it has to take a lot more interest rises to curb over heated economy.

I would rather to try to earn more and enjoy more because anyway, the salary will increase, inflation will up, number wise, everything is going up;

This is why when one does analysis on investment projects, they compare the present value of future cash flow with the present value of future cash outlay.

If I borrow 200K $ now and I can return it as late as possible, I will difinitely gain something; because every 10 years, people has 100% increase in their salary; 200k $ loan now at 10 years later will only left 100k for me if at that time I can earn double than now;

True until you compare a series future cash inflows and outflows based on today's value. Because of that, 1) one will not invest in projects that the net present value is negative, and 2) one will choose to invest in projects that have higher present values. Just to look at price differentials at different time to draw conclusion is not the way to go.

And from long term perspective, the house, especally detached house, almost always going up, price wise;
Please see URL: http://www.bcrealtor.com/c_graph.htm, then click on the <detailed value graph> button;[/QUOTE]

[到底谁傻]

我从来没说投资股票稳赚，我的议论都是针对“投资房地产稳赚”的观点。

作者: 李大哥

你炒股就每年都赚？每年都赚一样多？咱们不是算平均数吗？

以道琼斯指数为例，１９６４年１２月３１日：８７４．１２

　　１９８１年１２月３１日：８７５．００
17年只升了一点。炒股就稳赚？

[到底谁傻]

The following was published back in Oct. Although the Bank said that Canadian economy is at "full capacity", many in the market place believe it's in the "excess demand" territory. This is why the Bank has kept raising interest rates. "Full Employment" in Canada means a ~6% natural unemployment rate. Now in BC it's about 4.9%, in Alberta it's about 4.1%. Ontario is at 6.2%. Obviously there's a lack of supply of labor right now in Canada.

Calgary doesn't have the natural beauty of Vancouver, nor the sophisticated frustructure of Toronto. There's no reason other than economic ones (e.g. higher income)that Calgary housing price should catch up with those two cities.

When looking at the timing to invest, it shouldn't take a major crisis to get someone think thoroughly (by then it'll be too late). Even without crisis in sight (if indeed 政策得当), 经济过热 is today's hard fact. When the Bank is expected to keep raising the rate to cool down economy, jumping into market without going through rigorous analysis is not a good idea.


Bank of Canada releases Monetary Policy Report
OTTAWA―The Bank of Canada today released its October Monetary Policy Report, which discusses current economic and financial trends in the context of Canada's inflation-control strategy.

The global and Canadian economies have continued to grow at a solid pace, and our economy now appears to be operating at full production capacity. Past and recent movements in energy prices and in the exchange rate for the Canadian dollar, along with competitive pressures from China and other newly industrialized economies, are giving rise to significant ongoing adjustments in the Canadian economy. Given these adjustments and the slow growth of productivity in recent years, the Bank has slightly reduced its estimate of potential output growth for 2005 and 2006.

作者: 李大哥

你所谓的经济稍有发展，就业率稍微高一点，就通货膨胀了？房子就要跌了？

3、加拿大经济过热了吗？安省、BC省还不是老样子？只有阿省由于油价上涨，才导致石油行业投资增加，带来一些就业机会。其他行业也没有过热。

4、房价离谱了吗？现在卡城的房价还低于多伦多和温哥华的房价。其他省份的房价更是在合理水平内。比如regina，80年的房子，2层，双车库，1600尺，地库全装修，现在才卖11万。其他象东部海洋省份，房价也是很低，十几万就能买大房子。

5、房价能上天吗？土地资源丰富，城市可以轻易扩大，劳动力、建材都可以做到供应充足。房价怎么能炒上天。只要扩大供给，房价就不能飙升。

只要政策得当，经济可以维持几十年稳定发展，充分就业，物价稳定。45年到70年就是个例子。现在，根本就看不到恶性通货膨胀的迹象。既然经济没有过热，何必担心高利率？没有经济过热和高利率，何来经济大衰退？没有经济大衰退，何来房价下跌？

[到底谁傻]

不过卡城这地方多数时间被憋在屋子里，买个房子还是必要地，房子还是该买个住着舒服地！

作者: Winged Frank

告诉你们，卡尔加里根本就不是一个买房子长期居住的地方，等油价高峰过去，它依然只是个鸟不拉屎的地方，这个世界并不是只有卡城一个地方有房子卖，还是被炒到离谱的地方，一帮子房皮子在那儿乐，还真有傻到接盘的，还有几千元就首付的，简直就是把命卖给了房皮子（东北那嘎大对房地产经济的尊称），这种房皮子小心遭报应，恁也缺德了，为了赚钱把人往死命里卖。
讨论这些干啥，这个地方就是先租两天房子，工作着，等工作机会没了，找个山清水秀的地方，买个房子养老，那才叫正途。

[到底谁傻]

Agreed. 无论是为投资，为消费，还是二者兼顾，最怕的是想不清楚到底买房子是为什么。
非得把房子与投资扯到一块,偶有一个问题:

Agreed.如果是为投资，进场时机也要明白。
70刀买NT股票吗?买了真赚钱啊,条件是上升趋势;30刀卖出(做空)NT股票吗?卖出真赚钱啊,条件是下降趋势.
房子也一样,要看清趋势,该出手时就出手.无论买如和卖出.

不敢苟同。Cash is the King. Diversification is the rule. 所以俺首选现金，哪里赚得好投哪里。
3.答:房地产上升趋势,偶选地产;房地产下降趋势,偶现金.

Totally!
4 答:富人是用别人和银行的钱,赚钱

[到底谁傻]

Real estate is definitely more secure than stocks with short history (e.g. NT). However, real estate is not neccessarily safer, nor does it guarantee to provide higher return than a lot of blue chip stocks that have long history of positive earnings, growth and dividend payout. This is why real estate is only a good venue to invest and consume at the same time but by no means the "best investment", nor "the safest investment".

作者: samqyang

yeah, and NT stock can reach 118 $/share at peek and also can down to 69 Cents at bottom; Given, company still can go bankruptcy, which means with that kind of stock, you may lose everything, not even 1 cent back;

But, for the house, especially the one you bought and lived in; half spent, half invest; And for last 100years in Canada, 25% down at any 5 years time is almost impossible, and overall price goes up always;

Very simple, any family can survive without even 1 share of stock but no family can survive withour a place to live; regardless you rent it or buy it;