Jan 31st, 2006, 14:10 | 只看该作者 #21 | |
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作为自己住的房子,房子卖出时,升值部分,不用交税。这和投资买基金,有很大的不同。 2、投资房子的风险几乎就没有,特别是从25年的时间跨度来看。25年时间里是5年平,3年跌,17年涨。 3、买股票和基金就不同了。你就不要提微软的股票了。80年时谁能保证它能大涨?你怎么不提从300元跌到几分钱的股票呢?问题是谁能选准股?买房却不同,不论什么房,只要是新房,未来的趋势就是上涨。 4、作为基金经理,25年内业绩能超过股票指数的,全世界也屈指可数。因此,聪明的基金经理干脆就买成分股,比如买SP标准普尔指数的成分股。就算是这样,25年下来,年平均回报率9%,如果减去扣税,年平均能达到5%就不错了。 5、如果买房子,自己住,25年升值200%,23万的房子变成69万的房子,5万投资,收益64万,年平均回报11%多。 此帖于 Jan 31st, 2006 15:00 被 李大哥 编辑。 |
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Jan 31st, 2006, 15:32 | 只看该作者 #22 | |
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好,就说同一个人,在买房和买股票两种情形下智力完全一样,只知道买房时地点最重要或只知道股票指数比较安全,都没有那么聪敏也没有那么运气挑最好的买。所以我用平均房价 和平均股市比。另外,如果80年买23万的房子,首付5万,贷18万,80-95年平均年利率是10%以上,就算11%,头15年每月利息费用就>1600刀。再有,1)自住房贷款利息不减税,投资用贷款利息可减税,2)投资有分红可再投,3)资产增值税率远少于所得税率,4)资产增值的头50万免资产增值税... 引用:
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Jan 31st, 2006, 15:48 | 只看该作者 #23 | |
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2、买房自住,卖出时,根本就不交税。 3、如果买房用来投资,那么贷款的利息,一样可以享受减税的好处。 4、资产增值税我不十分清楚。 此帖于 Jan 31st, 2006 16:03 被 李大哥 编辑。 |
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Jan 31st, 2006, 15:58 | 只看该作者 #24 | |
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因为政府要抑止通货膨胀; 既然通货膨胀了,那么在此之前,物价肯定有个大涨的过程。如果是在80年以前买的房子,房子肯定升值一大部分了。即使利息高一点,和房子已经升值比起来,还是微不足道。 如果是在80年买房,我认为时机不好,因为利率太高。即使买了,到了2005年房子升值200%,利息在随后的几年里也逐渐下降了,负担并不重。总的算来,还是合算。 如果买股票,利率涨,企业盈利下降,股票一样跌。投资股票损失更大。 如果利率下降,股票涨,房价一样上涨,买房人也不吃亏。 |
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Jan 31st, 2006, 16:12 | 只看该作者 #25 | |
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My point is 如果清清楚楚地算,一项一项地算,过去25年买和租同样的房子住,买不一定比租合算,今后也是一样。 准确的说法应当是买单个房子比买单个股票风险小,买房子是既享受了又拥有了,但认为买房子的长期比租房子的今后会富有,那是myth. 引用:
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Jan 31st, 2006, 16:24 | 只看该作者 #27 | |
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算通货膨胀是不包括房价的。通货膨胀高,利率高,房价会跌。房价都是在通货膨胀低利率低是才长得好。1996年利率趋跌,房价尚未起步,进房地产是好时候。现在通货膨胀显势利率法攀升,房价近峰尖,此时进房市绝不可能为了赚钱,基本上是为享受。 引用:
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Jan 31st, 2006, 16:30 | 只看该作者 #29 | |
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1、房主要考虑成本,如果房租低于房主的成本,房主就不出租了。 2、再谈需求,青少年18岁以后,总要离家独立,开始几年,肯定要租房。如果人口下降过快,还可以靠吸引移民增加人口。因此,不愁没人租房。 因此,如果房价上涨,租金也会随房价上涨而上涨。如果房价下跌,租金也会下降。 可是,从长期看,房价是只涨不跌,因此,租金也是只涨不跌。这样看来,还是买房合适。 |
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Jan 31st, 2006, 16:33 | 只看该作者 #30 | |
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通货膨胀开始的时候,物价上涨,货币贬值,房价怎么能不上涨?水泥、木材都涨价了,房价怎么能不上涨? |
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Jan 31st, 2006, 16:33 | 只看该作者 #31 | |
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这说明清楚的人是不会在房子或股票一棵树上拴着,高利率时就还买债券了.不过过去好几十年证明股市比房市平均回报高,有什么办法。 引用:
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Jan 31st, 2006, 16:43 | 只看该作者 #32 | |
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But 买股票 really can't compare to 买房 (Sorry, don't have CHN input now); I can within my whole life never 买股票 but I don't think I can never 买房 in my life; 股票指数 is just a number like the money in your bank account, but having a 房 is for sure different than having 股票; one is spent (买房) and one (买股票) is invest; And I can make one bet with you; I don't think within feture 20 years, you can see the 平均年利率是10%以上, not even close; Why, the world is smaller than 80s; IF any country or bank willing to pay 10% interest, then all other banks' or countries' money will flow over; which means more money will move in but less money borrowed by people, From banks' perspective, they don't like high interest rate at all; Unless all the major countrys average at 10% over (US, CA, JAP, GER, ENG, AUS, PRC, RUS, etc...); 引用:
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独在异乡为异客,中国人要帮中国人。
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Jan 31st, 2006, 16:50 | 只看该作者 #33 | |
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利率是最重要的因素,房价对利率反应有滞后,从美国的利率已经长了1年半,现在房价才有反应。如果谁说:“如何解释,2005年利率上涨,LA的房价也上涨?”今年一月分的统计LA2005年12月降了0.2%,就回答了这个问题。 另外因为建筑材料涨价付高房价更危险,因为这时最是利率要长,最是房价有可能被抑制,自己最容易买高持低的时候。 引用:
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Jan 31st, 2006, 16:59 | 只看该作者 #35 | |
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Jan 31st, 2006, 17:06 | 只看该作者 #36 | |
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You are right, to purchase stocks is pure investment but to buy a house to live is investment + consumption. From the stand point of consumption, one can not claim (and I don't believe anyone does) buying a house is the best consumption because different people have different preferences, e.g. as I said in a post above, some people feel more happy owning a small airplane than owning a house, or travelling around the globe than owning a house. From the stand point of investment, one can not claim buying a house is the best investment (although it maybe more secure than some other investments, abeit not as safe as government bonds or GIC). You may be right that in the next 20 years we may not see 10+% bank rate again (but who knows!). However, it's the opportunity cost one has to consider. Once your money is tied up in your house, it can't be used in many blue chip stocks that can bring you higher return with similar risk profile as your house, e.g. Royal Bank stock or Altria Group and many more. My point is that "buying a house makes one richer than not buying" is a myth and that "buying a house makes one's life more enjoyable than not buying" is a myth too. Buying a house is only one form of consumption that appeals some more than others. Buying a house is only one form of investment that appeals people with certain risk tolerance levels. The only advantage of buying a house and living in it is that one can eat the cake and also have it. Buying a house and letting some one else live in it doesn't even have that advantage. 引用:
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Jan 31st, 2006, 17:09 | 只看该作者 #37 | |
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0.2% was month-over-month decline. If annualize it, it was 2.4% and it's just a beginning. My point is that the worst entry point is when inflation, interest is on the rise and the housing price is approaching its peak. 引用:
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Jan 31st, 2006, 17:23 | 只看该作者 #38 | |
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利率从3%升到10%还有很长的路程,而且这个过程肯定是个物价飞涨的过程。如果物价不飞涨,干吗提高利率?既然物价飞涨,房价凭什么不飞涨?这样,到存款利率10%的时候,投资买房的人早就赚大发了。到时,卖不卖,不是很主动吗? 因此,现在肯定不是你说的逃顶的时候。 |
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Jan 31st, 2006, 17:40 | 只看该作者 #39 | |
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