fo.v 好像刚好苏醒 - 第3页

wz111 · May 13th, 2006, 13:24

DECIDING WHEN TO SELL!

In a bull market practically all stocks rise in the sectors benefiting from the favorable market conditions. The key to wealth is knowing which stocks to take profits from and which ones to hold as core positions; adding to, as corrections and consolidations give opportunities to build positions.

I always get a charge from people who seem to think that just because a stock rises in value an investor has to take a profit so as not to lose what he has made on paper. I liken this to my days as a broker, years ago, when I saw time and time again how investors were very easily encouraged to take a profit and reinvest the proceeds into a position that was underwater. I too was guilty of doing this as I felt it was the right thing to do. Time and experience has proven the error of this type of thinking. In practically all cases it was the losing stock position that should have been sold with the proceeds used to buy more of the winning stock.

Often investors will take a profit from one company to purchase an investment in a new company. I have never been able to understand how this logic is supposed to lessen an investors risk when the capital is reinvested in a new venture. Seems to me the investor is starting the risk all over again.

With the rally we have experienced so far in 2006 I must say that I am very pleased with the profits I have racked up in the stocks that I own. For those of you on my e-mail list who have purchased these stocks I am sure you are very pleased with the results you have achieved as well. I am not going to talk about specific stocks in this article as that is not what this article is about; for those of you on my e-mail list you will see an update in the near future that will bring you up to date. Suffice it to say that I think you will continue to be very happy. I am currently hoping for weakness in a couple of stocks I own so that I can build larger positions. Unfortunately the stocks are very stubborn and refuse to give up much ground. Notice I used the word unfortunately; this is no accident as I would love to have a shot at buying more shares at a discount.

In my three favorite companies my money has more than doubled in one and tripled in the other and up more than tenfold, on my initial investment, in the third. Once an investor sees returns of this nature on the stocks in their portfolio they will then have the confidence to not worry about the day to day price volatility in their portfolios. This type of attitude can very easily be adopted when one is in a bull market in the sectors that you own.

As time moves forward I am automatically checking the progress of my investments with the business plans that the management of my investments have laid out for them to accomplish. If I find that management is successfully moving my investments towards a final goal, which inevitably is proving up an ore body or putting an already proven ore body into production, then I am a happy camper and I will continue to own and build positions in my investments.

Most investors do not realize that the companies they own could be considered more undervalued at two or three times their purchase price as management successfully delivers on their business plans. This is where the boys are separated from the men. Being able to understand true value from building a company from the ground floor up versus a stock that simply has a very good marketing team telling a good story is the key in knowing when to take a profit versus owning a stock as a core holding. In the three stocks I referred to I am very happy to say that I have added to my positions as management has proved up additional value to the companies. I have taken money from companies whose management failed to deliver and used that as the additional funds to build my winning positions.

The reason I have been drawn to making investments in start up junior mining and natural resource companies deal directly with the rewards of finding the company with a resource that becomes a positive cash flowing mine. I know that very few companies have bodies of ore that will ever see the day when they will be called a producing mine. The odds are stacked against every junior mining company ever becoming classified as a successful producing company. However, the rewards of being successful in finding a junior mining company that is bought out or becomes a producing company, in my opinion, far outweigh the risk associated with making the investment. Huge profits and returns await those who are successful.

The ironic part to this story deals with companies that may falter in being able to timely deliver on their business plans. There are many reasons why a company may fall behind; some of these reasons are totally acceptable as being normal in the mining industry. In cases like this positions should be built to take long term advantage over a short term holdup.

The "boys" also get separated at this point as many times these failures are warning signs that something is not right. I like to refer to these failures as "Material Changes."

Time always separates fact from fiction. A shrewd investor can recognize material changes as time brings the truth out of fiction. As time reveals that management has made mistakes, overestimated ore bodies, underestimated costs, fudged the truth about what they hoped to have, or simply did not have a clue what they originally hoped to accomplish in the first place; there is consolation in knowing that all is not lost. In a bull market there is a strong possibility that good money can still be made when an individual owns a company like this. Remember a rising tide will lift all boats. Knowing that "all is not well" is the first step in knowing that this company is on its way out of my portfolio. I will make sure I liquidate companies of this nature as they move up in price and liquidity offers a timely exit. I get a charge out of being able to make money on companies that deserve to be liquidated at a loss. Have you ever noticed that stocks offer excellent liquidity to sell as they move higher in price? The important point to make here is; if you decide to sell a stock out of your portfolio do it when liquidity gives you the opportunity to do so not when your emotions stir you to sell.

THREE SECRETS

The three secrets to making big money in the markets are;

1 - Accumulating good quality stocks or stocks that have great potential when no one wants them;

2 - Being able to let loose of the stocks that encounter material changes when they rise and liquidity offers the opportunity to delete them from your portfolio.

3 - Knowing which stocks should be considered core holdings where weakness should be viewed as an opportunity to build positions at a discount.

CONCLUSION

Like I have said, knowing when to sell a stock can be very complicated. Ultimately my decisions to sell are based on the accomplishments of management in being able to deliver value to their shareholders.

Notice that I have said nothing about the subject of paying taxes on the gains that an investor may take along the way. This is a separate article in and of itself. Suffice it to say that paying taxes is not one of my favorite things to do in my life and by holding my core positions I put myself in a position to minimize my taxes and pay long term capital gains when I do decide to take profits down the road.

wz111 · May 15th, 2006, 19:53

引用:

作者: 追涨杀跌

FO可能还要下, 要回补4.72-4.80的跳空缺口. 我准备5.00先买进10,000, 以后的在4.50以下再买入.

很有可能. 似乎 fo.v 非得填满了空缺才能往前走. 俗话说, 退后一步, 是为了更好的往前走. $7 见, 哈哈.

wz111 · May 17th, 2006, 19:46

引用:

作者: dlhy

fo.v,一只即将暴跌的强熊股!!!!!!!

又一次对信心的大检验. 相信自己的判断, " 不管风吹浪打，胜似闲庭信步". 两周之内, >$7.

wz111 · May 17th, 2006, 22:16

一场围堵shorters和shorters相互倾轧的场面即将出现, 惊心动魄. 哈哈哈

wz111 · May 19th, 2006, 21:42

Updated Short Summary

As of.......Short Volume...Change In Volume
15/May/2006 2,307,800 +1,245,600
30/Apr/2006 1,062,200 +120,280
15/Apr/2006 941,920 -114,026
31/Mar/2006 1,055,946 +540,587
15/Mar/2006 515,359 -384,441
28/Feb/2006 899,800 -2,329,700
15/Feb/2006 3,229,500 +3,159,300
15/Jan/2006 70,200 +66,700
31/Dec/2005 3,500 -260,100
15/Dec/2005 263,600 +220,100
30/Nov/2005 43,500 -247,800

wz111 · May 24th, 2006, 19:40

引用:

作者: dlhy

在一个连续暴跌50%的股票中,如果你发现不好,果断砍仓,仅损失了15%,恭喜你:你已经具有部分职业炒股者的意识和水平.如果你现在还在嘴硬,FO.V涨到7块钱,我都没卖,现在3.5了,我更不卖了.我不能不说,你是纯正的炒股业余爱好者.BUY AND HOLD STOCK能挣钱,那是任何LEVEL的人都...

谢谢D兄的忠言! 的确是一次教训, 蒸发掉了近40万! 哈, 40万! 以后请各位老大多多指点.

本来以为MM仅仅对付shorts, 没想到MM大开杀戒, 屠杀了很多想近期获利的traders和不少fond managers (有些fond有硬性规定, 一旦价位低于50日均线就必须出货).

不过本人仍然看好 fo.v, 基本面并未改变, 失去的仅仅是一次获利的机会, 达到$10的时间将拖延2月左右而已. 本人今天 $3.37 继续加仓, 可能性急了点. 将准备子弹, 继续加仓.

wz111 · May 24th, 2006, 21:06

引用:

作者: liszt

这个股票你的仓位那么重：竟然会一股没有卖？确实有点不可思议，一般来说，在上升途中，总是逐渐减仓实现利润的，你的可是几十万股啊？没有理由在涨幅超过十倍的情况下也不锁定利润？

D兄的话虽然重点，却是赢道理。

谢谢老李! 其实D兄的话一点都不重, 我的股龄不到2岁, 还有很多东西要学, 还有很多风雨要见识啊.

wz111 · May 25th, 2006, 20:01

枫坛真是温暖啊, 得到了这么多朋友和老大们的关心和鼓励, 谢谢各位了! 特别谢谢老李的精彩分析, 收益很大.

我一股没卖的原因, 不是因为贪婪, 主要是把 fo.v 作为长线投资, 看着她涨涨跌跌, 都没有想过要去卖她. 我一直认为, fo.v 的价位今年应该 $10+, 明年 $20+. 但是如果 fo.v 的基本面发生了变化, 无论价位如何, 我会立刻清仓. 昨天加仓 8000 股, 今天看来还算是即时.

其实金钱乃身外之物, 生不带来, 死不带走, 不因为赚了钱而狂喜, 也不因为亏了钱而失落, 看轻点会自在多了. 哈哈, 瞎说了, 各位别见怪哦!

fo.v 今后的走势, 如果基本面保持不变, 可能会如下图(一相情愿):

wz111 · May 26th, 2006, 21:07

引用:

作者: liszt

不用客气：你为本坛不仅贡献了一个好帖子，而且贡献了一种长线是金的精神（即使对于垃圾股）。

BTW，我一直在想，你对这个股票信念如此之大，你是不是在这个公司上班？或者有何内情？能不能告诉一下老李？（PM也行

）谢谢

哈哈，老李，我什么内情都没有，我之所以看好 fo.v ，是因为从买fo.v 到现在，fo.v 的前景一天天明了，并没有朝不好的方向发展。还有重要的一点，就是相信fo.v 的老板 Marc A. Bruner，他曾经开创了AMEX:UPL，相信他在fo.v 上同样会创造出一个新的辉煌。

wz111 · May 26th, 2006, 21:09

引用:

作者: PennyMaker

即使是内部人士能接触到核心信息的不多，所以只有真正的结果才是真的。我对这个股票会继续以短线为主，直到有真正勘探好的消息出来。

直觉上，总觉得Allan的辞职有点蹊跷

老兄的直觉很敏锐啊。有人猜测，Allan的辞职和他在一次采访中过早的泄漏了太多的细节，使得fo.v 的价位一再升高，惹恼了准备给fo.v 提供250M贷款的银行。这250M的贷款将可能在6月10日前搞定，猜测这次的大回调都跟这个有关。所以估计在贷款搞定之前fo.v 的价位可能不会有太大的拉升，之后将会怎样呢？抱紧手中的股票，在享受一次坐火箭的感觉。哈哈哈。

wz111 · May 27th, 2006, 10:49

引用:

作者: 飞雪连天

请教一下,贷款银行为什么不喜欢高股价?

"The letter of intent also anticipates that Macquarie Bank would receive warrants to purchase 10 million shares of Falcon common stock upon establishment of the secured credit facility, and warrants to purchase an additional 10 million shares upon an initial draw down of $50 million and upon each additional draw of $50 million. It is anticipated that the warrant exercise price will be based on a 25% premium over Falcon's average stock price for an approximately 30-day period prior to closing the credit facility."

wz111 · May 30th, 2006, 20:17

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp...174&sort=whole

wz111 · Jun 5th, 2006, 20:50

引用:

作者: wz111

Updated Short SummaryAs of.......Short Volume...Change In Volume15/May/2006 2,307,800 +1,245,60030/Apr/2006 1,...

fo.v 从 NationalPost 的 Largest Short Positions at 2006.05.31 消失了. 看来空头们已经惊恐万般了. 哪位朋友知道如何查到目前的 Short Positions?

wz111 · Jun 6th, 2006, 20:34

fo 还处于等待状态, MM 借着大势洗盘. 不过个人认为, $4 以下的机会不会很多了.

wz111 · Jun 7th, 2006, 21:56

引用:

作者: wz111

fo 还处于等待状态, MM 借着大势洗盘. 不过个人认为, $4 以下的机会不会很多了.

$3.95 再加仓3000股. 哈哈, 没有子弹了.

wz111 · Jun 8th, 2006, 19:35

引用:

作者: xmin

in $3.75 下了好几天的单子了。

老兄的耐心很好啊!

wz111 · Jun 8th, 2006, 19:35

引用:

作者: 风-云

跟踪楼主的经典一战，想看看将来会发生什么？

今天关注了fo的交易, 感觉远非MM洗盘了, 空头们借助大盘回调拼命打压fo, 试图制造恐慌性抛盘, 不过未能如愿. 由于fo还处于等待状态, 多头们也不想反扑, 守住关键价位即可. 明天很关键, 空头们一定会孤注一掷, 希望能收出一根阳线. 等到Line Credit搞定或有了测试结果, 看看多头们将如何反扑, 看看空头们如何自相残杀.... 要能沉住气, 有耐心, 哈哈哈.

wz111 · Jun 9th, 2006, 19:21

引用:

作者: tuliptoronto

楼主建议一下如何操作? 还没进货? 什么价位比较好?

谢谢老兄的信任. 不过我也是新手, 不能给如何人建议该如何操作. 我只能用自己作试验, 我写出自己是如何操作的, 不论成功还是失败, 对于大家来说都可以参考. 各位老大如果看到不对劲的地方, 一定要敲打敲打哦. 在此再次感谢D兄和老李的帮助!

wz111 · Jun 9th, 2006, 19:22

引用:

作者: wz111

今天关注了fo的交易, 感觉远非MM洗盘了, 空头们借助大盘回调拼命打压fo, 试图制造恐慌性抛盘, 不过未能如愿. 由于fo还处于等待状态, 多头们也不想反扑, 守住关键价位即可. 明天很关键, 空头们一定会孤注一掷, 希望能收出一根阳线. 等到Line Credit搞定或有了测试结果, 看看多头...

今天的收市很不理想, 居然没能守住50MA! 好像MM已经觉得有了足够的控盘能力, 还需要加码和惩治今天开盘时入市的day trader. 还有待观察.

wz111 · Jun 9th, 2006, 21:07

对于有兴趣长期持有fo的朋友, 一定得听听今天 8:00 PM ET Market Call Tonight with Howard Green on ROBTV. Bill Harris, partner & portfolio manager, Avenue Investment Management . 靠近结束时谈到fo, "the most exciting natural gas play in the world" , "as twice as the gas as Encana has" , "you just have to own this stock" .
http://www.robtv.com/

May 13th, 2006, 13:24	#41
wz111 Senior Member 注册日期: Sep 2005 帖子: 363 精华:1	DECIDING WHEN TO SELL! In a bull market practically all stocks rise in the sectors benefiting from the favorable market conditions. The key to wealth is knowing which stocks to take profits from and which ones to hold as core positions; adding to, as corrections and consolidations give opportunities to build positions. I always get a charge from people who seem to think that just because a stock rises in value an investor has to take a profit so as not to lose what he has made on paper. I liken this to my days as a broker, years ago, when I saw time and time again how investors were very easily encouraged to take a profit and reinvest the proceeds into a position that was underwater. I too was guilty of doing this as I felt it was the right thing to do. Time and experience has proven the error of this type of thinking. In practically all cases it was the losing stock position that should have been sold with the proceeds used to buy more of the winning stock. Often investors will take a profit from one company to purchase an investment in a new company. I have never been able to understand how this logic is supposed to lessen an investors risk when the capital is reinvested in a new venture. Seems to me the investor is starting the risk all over again. With the rally we have experienced so far in 2006 I must say that I am very pleased with the profits I have racked up in the stocks that I own. For those of you on my e-mail list who have purchased these stocks I am sure you are very pleased with the results you have achieved as well. I am not going to talk about specific stocks in this article as that is not what this article is about; for those of you on my e-mail list you will see an update in the near future that will bring you up to date. Suffice it to say that I think you will continue to be very happy. I am currently hoping for weakness in a couple of stocks I own so that I can build larger positions. Unfortunately the stocks are very stubborn and refuse to give up much ground. Notice I used the word unfortunately; this is no accident as I would love to have a shot at buying more shares at a discount. In my three favorite companies my money has more than doubled in one and tripled in the other and up more than tenfold, on my initial investment, in the third. Once an investor sees returns of this nature on the stocks in their portfolio they will then have the confidence to not worry about the day to day price volatility in their portfolios. This type of attitude can very easily be adopted when one is in a bull market in the sectors that you own. As time moves forward I am automatically checking the progress of my investments with the business plans that the management of my investments have laid out for them to accomplish. If I find that management is successfully moving my investments towards a final goal, which inevitably is proving up an ore body or putting an already proven ore body into production, then I am a happy camper and I will continue to own and build positions in my investments. Most investors do not realize that the companies they own could be considered more undervalued at two or three times their purchase price as management successfully delivers on their business plans. This is where the boys are separated from the men. Being able to understand true value from building a company from the ground floor up versus a stock that simply has a very good marketing team telling a good story is the key in knowing when to take a profit versus owning a stock as a core holding. In the three stocks I referred to I am very happy to say that I have added to my positions as management has proved up additional value to the companies. I have taken money from companies whose management failed to deliver and used that as the additional funds to build my winning positions. The reason I have been drawn to making investments in start up junior mining and natural resource companies deal directly with the rewards of finding the company with a resource that becomes a positive cash flowing mine. I know that very few companies have bodies of ore that will ever see the day when they will be called a producing mine. The odds are stacked against every junior mining company ever becoming classified as a successful producing company. However, the rewards of being successful in finding a junior mining company that is bought out or becomes a producing company, in my opinion, far outweigh the risk associated with making the investment. Huge profits and returns await those who are successful. The ironic part to this story deals with companies that may falter in being able to timely deliver on their business plans. There are many reasons why a company may fall behind; some of these reasons are totally acceptable as being normal in the mining industry. In cases like this positions should be built to take long term advantage over a short term holdup. The "boys" also get separated at this point as many times these failures are warning signs that something is not right. I like to refer to these failures as "Material Changes." Time always separates fact from fiction. A shrewd investor can recognize material changes as time brings the truth out of fiction. As time reveals that management has made mistakes, overestimated ore bodies, underestimated costs, fudged the truth about what they hoped to have, or simply did not have a clue what they originally hoped to accomplish in the first place; there is consolation in knowing that all is not lost. In a bull market there is a strong possibility that good money can still be made when an individual owns a company like this. Remember a rising tide will lift all boats. Knowing that "all is not well" is the first step in knowing that this company is on its way out of my portfolio. I will make sure I liquidate companies of this nature as they move up in price and liquidity offers a timely exit. I get a charge out of being able to make money on companies that deserve to be liquidated at a loss. Have you ever noticed that stocks offer excellent liquidity to sell as they move higher in price? The important point to make here is; if you decide to sell a stock out of your portfolio do it when liquidity gives you the opportunity to do so not when your emotions stir you to sell. THREE SECRETS The three secrets to making big money in the markets are; 1 - Accumulating good quality stocks or stocks that have great potential when no one wants them; 2 - Being able to let loose of the stocks that encounter material changes when they rise and liquidity offers the opportunity to delete them from your portfolio. 3 - Knowing which stocks should be considered core holdings where weakness should be viewed as an opportunity to build positions at a discount. CONCLUSION Like I have said, knowing when to sell a stock can be very complicated. Ultimately my decisions to sell are based on the accomplishments of management in being able to deliver value to their shareholders. Notice that I have said nothing about the subject of paying taxes on the gains that an investor may take along the way. This is a separate article in and of itself. Suffice it to say that paying taxes is not one of my favorite things to do in my life and by holding my core positions I put myself in a position to minimize my taxes and pay long term capital gains when I do decide to take profits down the road.
wz111 Senior Member 注册日期: Sep 2005 帖子: 363 精华:1

May 25th, 2006, 20:01	#48
wz111 Senior Member 注册日期: Sep 2005 帖子: 363 精华:1 声望: 40171	谢谢老李的精彩分析枫坛真是温暖啊, 得到了这么多朋友和老大们的关心和鼓励, 谢谢各位了! 特别谢谢老李的精彩分析, 收益很大. 我一股没卖的原因, 不是因为贪婪, 主要是把 fo.v 作为长线投资, 看着她涨涨跌跌, 都没有想过要去卖她. 我一直认为, fo.v 的价位今年应该 $10+, 明年 $20+. 但是如果 fo.v 的基本面发生了变化, 无论价位如何, 我会立刻清仓. 昨天加仓 8000 股, 今天看来还算是即时. 其实金钱乃身外之物, 生不带来, 死不带走, 不因为赚了钱而狂喜, 也不因为亏了钱而失落, 看轻点会自在多了. 哈哈, 瞎说了, 各位别见怪哦! fo.v 今后的走势, 如果基本面保持不变, 可能会如下图(一相情愿): 上传的缩略图

May 30th, 2006, 20:17	#52
wz111 Senior Member 注册日期: Sep 2005 帖子: 363 精华:1 声望: 40171	fo NAV 计算, 供参考. http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp...174&sort=whole

May 17th, 2006, 22:16	#44
wz111 Senior Member 注册日期: Sep 2005 帖子: 363 精华:1 声望: 40171	一场围堵shorters和shorters相互倾轧的场面即将出现, 惊心动魄. 哈哈哈

May 19th, 2006, 21:42	#45
wz111 Senior Member 注册日期: Sep 2005 帖子: 363 精华:1 声望: 40171	Updated Short Summary As of.......Short Volume...Change In Volume 15/May/2006 2,307,800 +1,245,600 30/Apr/2006 1,062,200 +120,280 15/Apr/2006 941,920 -114,026 31/Mar/2006 1,055,946 +540,587 15/Mar/2006 515,359 -384,441 28/Feb/2006 899,800 -2,329,700 15/Feb/2006 3,229,500 +3,159,300 15/Jan/2006 70,200 +66,700 31/Dec/2005 3,500 -260,100 15/Dec/2005 263,600 +220,100 30/Nov/2005 43,500 -247,800

Jun 6th, 2006, 20:34	#54
wz111 Senior Member 注册日期: Sep 2005 帖子: 363 精华:1 声望: 40171	fo 还处于等待状态, MM 借着大势洗盘. 不过个人认为, $4 以下的机会不会很多了.

Jun 9th, 2006, 21:07	#60
wz111 Senior Member 注册日期: Sep 2005 帖子: 363 精华:1 声望: 40171	对于有兴趣长期持有fo的朋友, 一定得听听今天 8:00 PM ET Market Call Tonight with Howard Green on ROBTV. Bill Harris, partner & portfolio manager, Avenue Investment Management . 靠近结束时谈到fo, "the most exciting natural gas play in the world" , "as twice as the gas as Encana has" , "you just have to own this stock" . http://www.robtv.com/