Apr 3rd, 2009, 19:58
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华疯小混混的领导
   
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【原创】给熊们打气,大盘短期气数以尽
本周主力实现了周线四连阳,成功的达到本人在<抄股入破案>中的预测. 这是本次熊市开始以来规模最猛烈的一次反弹行情,也是持续性最长的一次. 大盘走到今天,尽管牛的吓人,无数的熊已经在FAZ下死的尸骨无存,但是我个人感觉,大盘在短期内已经力竭,再发动猛攻有很大的困难. 第一,从形态上看: 三大指数中,奶指最强,周线形成了对称的V字,突破下降趋势.标谱其次,没能形成V字,基本上还被压迫在去年10月以来形成的下降趋势里,但是冒了个小头.道指最弱,被压在下降趋势里. 只有最不重要的奶指突破了,最重要的SPX言突破尚难. 第二,成交量 除了奶指成交量能够保持外,SPX和INDU的成交量逐次递减.金融是本次反弹的主力,SPDR XLF的成交量也是逐次递减! 日线上,最重要的是金融,SPDR XLF成交量今天迅速萎缩,只有平均量的一半, 第三,VIX 大盘连涨一个月,VIX依然不能突破自今年初以来形成的震荡整理区域.VIX在40附近三个月内6次向下突破,依然不能突破这一牢固的价格屏障. 这是基本的分析. FA方面,该来的都来的差不多了,该走的都还没走,这个分析不是我的强项,大家自己分析吧. 此帖于 Apr 3rd, 2009 22:05 被 野渡无人 编辑。 |
一天想到归去但已晚
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感谢 野渡无人 此篇文章之用户： |
老山东 (Apr 4th, 2009) |
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Apr 3rd, 2009, 20:12
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只看该作者 #2 |
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华疯小混混的领导
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本人的分析不够成任何投资建议. 既然预测,就可能对也可能错,做为新手,我没什么把握.两点建议. 一,下周是关键的一周.如果周线继续收羊,空头必须割肉止损,保存实力,撤退到SPX940一带建立新的阻鸡阵地,一定要把牛的气焰打下去! 当年我志愿军在5次战役中失利,但最后守住了.股市一样要坚持不能放弃. 二,下周5收盘之前,强烈不建议空头进行AD.大盘到现在,空头们该AD的估计已经AD了N次了.保留最后一点现金,是在股市中生存的根本. 三,操作上的建议,如果FAZ在高位严重套捞,不能守到全部解套再出,哪部分解了,就先出部分,降低损失. |
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Apr 3rd, 2009, 21:08
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只看该作者 #7 | |
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告别2011
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下次我们要好好畅饮一番：煮酒论大势。。。  April 3, 2009 Today's unemployment number of 8.5% means that the nation's current unemployment situation is already worse than the government's 8.4%"baseline scenario" in the "stress tests" being conducting on banks. With 9 more months of job cuts to go, the government's "adverse scenario" of 8.9% unemployment looks like it too will be easily surpassed - maybe as soon as next month. If we are already above the assumptions that are being used to "stress" the bank's balances sheets then what good are they? When the results come out, saying this bank or that bank passed (or more likely didn't fail), what does it mean? Are the banks safe? Not necessarily, because the assumptions are too pollyannish（这个词我把它翻译成“盲目乐观主义”不知道对否） so the whole test becomes irrelevant. |
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Apr 3rd, 2009, 21:28
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只看该作者 #8 |
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Member
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"If we are already above the assumptions that are being used to "stress" the bank's balances sheets then what good are they? When the results come out, saying this bank or that bank passed (or more likely didn't fail), what does it mean? Are the banks safe? Not necessarily, because the assumptions are too pollyannish（这个词我把它翻译成“盲目乐观主义”不知道对否） so the whole test becomes irrelevant. " 这段看不明白，特别是最后一句中的TEST是指什么呢？请老李指教。 
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Apr 3rd, 2009, 21:40
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只看该作者 #11 | |
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告别2011
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April 3, 2009 Today's unemployment number of 8.5% means that the nation's current unemployment situation is already worse than the government's 8.4%"baseline scenario" in the "stress tests" being conducting on banks. 今天8.5%的失业率数据意味着全国目前的失业率情况已经比政府在进行银行“压力测试”时所设定的8.4%的底线更为糟糕了。 With 9 more months of job cuts to go, the government's "adverse scenario" of 8.9% unemployment looks like it too will be easily surpassed - maybe as soon as next month. 还有9个多月的工作流失，看来政府最坏的8.9%的失业率打算也会被轻易超越 - 也许最快就是下个月。 If we are already above the assumptions that are being used to "stress" the bank's balances sheets then what good are they? When the results come out, saying this bank or that bank passed (or more likely didn't fail), what does it mean? Are the banks safe? Not necessarily, because the assumptions are too pollyannish（这个词我把它翻译成“盲目乐观主义”不知道对否） so the whole test becomes irrelevant. 如果我们现在已经在用于测试银行压力指数的假设之上了，那么银行的资产平衡表到底会有多好？当测试结果出来的时候，说这间或者那间银行已经通过测试（或者更多的可能是不会倒下），那到底意味着什么？这些银行（真的）安全吗？并非如此，因为所有的假设都（基于）盲目乐观主义，因此全部的测试就变得勉为其难。 |
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Apr 3rd, 2009, 22:00
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只看该作者 #12 | |
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华疯小混混的领导
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毫无疑问,失业数字自衰退以来表现远比股市稳定,量价配和,稳步上涨.  如果失业数字能买靠的话,我一定全仓买入. 年中突破两位数字毫无悬念.
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Apr 3rd, 2009, 22:13
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只看该作者 #13 | |
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告别2011
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Unemployment soars to 8.5 pct.; 13 million jobless AP – By JEANNINE AVERSA, Ap Economics Writer – 1 hr 11 mins ago WASHINGTON – Unemployment zoomed to 8.5 percent last month, the highest in a quarter-century, as employers axed 663,000 more workers and pushed the nation's jobless ranks past 13 million. The hard times were only expected to get harder — a painful 10 percent jobless rate before long. The current rate would be even higher — 15.6 percent — if it included laid-off workers who have given up looking for new jobs or have had to settle for part-time work because they can't do any better. That's the highest on record for that number in figures that go back to 1994. "Even if the economy continues to show signs of improvement, businesses will cut jobs and trim fats to stay lean and mean," said Sung Won Sohn, economist at the Martin Smith School of Business at California State University, Channel Islands. So far, the public has shown great hopes for the economic policies of new President Barack Obama. But those could fade quickly with more months of layoffs. In Europe for an economic summit, Obama called Friday's unemployment report a "stark reminder" of a need for action at home and abroad. The recession may well end later this year — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and many private analysts see that possibility — but rehiring historically doesn't get going until after an economic recovery is picking up steam. The jobless rate is expected to reach 10 percent by year's end. The stock market generally bottoms out before a recovery gets under way, too, and stocks now have risen for four straight weeks. The Dow Jones industrials rose 39.51 points on Friday after surging 216 points on Thursday and closed above 8,000 for the first time in nearly two months. Small comfort to millions of laid-off workers. The Labor Department report underscored the recession's toll: a spike in the jobless rate from February's 8.1 percent and a net loss of 5.1 million jobs since December 2007, almost two-thirds of them in just the past five months. And economists say an additional 2.4 million jobs will disappear through the first quarter of next year. As the downturn eats into companies' sales and profits, they are laying off workers and resorting to other cost-saving survival measures that also hit employees, the report showed. Those include holding down hours and freezing or cutting pay. "It's an ugly report, and April is going to be equally as bad," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "I couldn't see any rays of sunshine. Nothing." The average work week in March dropped to 33.2 hours, a record low. And nearly a quarter of the unemployed have been out of work for six months or more, the highest proportion since the steep 1981-82 recession. Margaret Barnett, 55, of Villa Rica, Ga., knows about that. She has been looking for work since she was laid off from a plastics distributor when the recession began in December 2007. She checks job listings every day at an employment agency and thumbs through the classified section of the local newspaper. But no luck. "It's more people advertising that they need work than people hiring," Barnett said. And hundreds of thousands of out-of-work Americans soon will exhaust their unemployment benefits in the coming weeks. Congress extended benefits twice last year to a total of 46 to 59 weeks. Many who have been lucky enough to keep their jobs are seeing their paychecks shrink. Average weekly earnings declined to $614.20 in March from $615.05 in February. If earnings keep falling, that would give consumers another reason to pull back spending, which would further weaken the economy. But there have been some positive economic signs recently. Orders placed with U.S. factories actually rose in February, ending six straight months of declines, the government reported Thursday. Earlier in the week, there were better-than-expected reports on construction spending and pending home sales. And last week a report showed that consumer spending — an engine of the economy — rose in February for the second month in a row — after a half-year of declines. Still, there was plenty of bad news in the details of the new report. For example, January's job losses were revised much higher, to 741,000 from 655,000, making them the worst in a single month since 1949. In March, the number of unemployed people climbed to 13.2 million. The number of people forced to work part time for "economic reasons" rose by 423,000 to 9 million. Those are people who would like to work full time but whose hours were cut back or who were unable to find full-time work. Most economists expect monthly job losses to continue for most if not all of this year. However, they are expecting that reductions in the current quarter won't be as deep as the roughly 685,000 average monthly job losses in the January-March period. Job losses were widespread last month. Construction companies cut 126,000. Factories axed 161,000. Retailers cut nearly 50,000. Professional and business services eliminated 133,000. Leisure and hospitality cut 40,000. Even the government cut jobs — 5,000 of them. Education and health care were among the few industries showing any job gains. There was more bad news for workers in service industries — hotels, retail, health care and such. An index of services activity shrank for a sixth straight month, according to the Institute for Supply Management, a Tempe, Ariz.-based trade group of purchasing executives. Bernanke said the recession could end later this year, setting the stage for recovery, if the government is successful in bolstering the banking system. Banks have been clobbered by the worst housing, credit and financial crises to hit the country since the 1930s. The Fed chief said Friday he expects to see a "gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth." But he didn't say when. To brace the economy, the Fed has slashed a key bank lending rate to an all-time low and has embarked on a series of radical programs to inject billions of dollars into the financial system. And the Obama administration has launched a multi-pronged strategy to turn the economy around. Its $787 billion stimulus package includes money that will flow to states for public works projects, help them defray budget cuts, extend unemployment benefits and boost food stamp benefits. Still, skittish employers announced more job layoffs this week. 3M Co., the maker of Scotch tape, Post-It Notes and other products, said it was cutting 1,200 more jobs. Health care products distributor Cardinal Health Inc. said it would eliminate 1,300 positions. Semiconductor equipment maker KLA-Tencor Corp. said it would cut about 600. And Caterpillar said it was speeding up layoffs — cutting more than 1,000 jobs at an Illinois plant two weeks ahead of schedule. "The philosophy seems to be cut massively now and ask questions about whether too much has been done later," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors. |
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Apr 3rd, 2009, 22:32
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只看该作者 #16 | |
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华疯小混混的领导
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至于失业率什么的,我只是和老姚聊聊,不是分析的基础. 还有,我的分析,是基于本周5的收盘,真正是否正确,下周5收盘必见分晓. |
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Apr 3rd, 2009, 22:38
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只看该作者 #18 | |
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告别2011
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金融危机肯定没有结束，否则C就不是2。X，BAC不会是7。x。。。熊市也肯定没有结束。。。 不过看熊不等于做熊。。。说实话，在V之后我就说过，下面怎么走，并不清楚，所以基本没有仓位了，1000美元的敢死队已经扑了，仅此而已 下周一应该决定本月的方向 |
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Apr 3rd, 2009, 22:44
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只看该作者 #20 |
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华风第二帅哥
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祝熊熊好运气,我把DIA,AA卖了,我觉得大盘可能要回调了. 我18元多买了100股FAZ,也算加入熊熊了.虽然量很小,毕竟刚入熊熊,胆子小.我是先试试水深. 果然,水比我们想象的要深得多. 买FAZ的一定要注意GS,JPM的走势,我不知道GS什么时候出ER. 只要GS,JPM滞涨了.FAZ就有机会了. FAZ一定不能急于补仓, 因为FAZ一急跌的时候太厉害了. 如果FAZ再急跌30%-40%,也就是10元的水平, 我准备买1000股. 我想FAZ的反弹可能以一次急跌开始. |
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