Mar 24th, 2006, 19:29
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只看该作者 #43 | |
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Senior Member
 
注册日期: Sep 2005
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引用:
fo目前打了两口井, 第一口浅井打在气田的边缘, 第二口深井打在气田的中部, 两口井相距45公里. 第一口浅井已经发现了大量的超压天然气, 所以fo采用了大口径的production casing, 并且把以前储气量的估计值(4.1TCF - 27.1TCF)一下提升到了140TCF. (详见 http://www.falconoilandgas.com/FALCO...%20present.pdf). 目前第二口深井距离目标深度还差约1公里, 可是已经发现了大量的高质量天然气(c1 - c5). 所以fo估计储气量还要增加30%, 即接近200TCF. 这将是北美能源公司有史以来所发现的最大的气田. 所以就目前的情况, 买fo已经没有什么风险, 然而回报将会是巨大的. 如果真的140TCF的储气量得到了确认, 村长帮估计一下, fo的股价将在什么价位. |
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Mar 27th, 2006, 23:45
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只看该作者 #44 |
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Senior Member
 
注册日期: Jun 2005
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Canaccord 对FO的评价。
One thing we have to admit about the Falcon Oil and Gas story right about now…it’s scary. Frankly, we think it’s about the scariest exploration story you can find on the entire planet today. You almost have to be insane to pay these prices for a stock in a company currently being valued at almost a billion dollars in market capitalization for a company that has no cash flow, no revenue, and hasn’t even completed their first well yet. Absolute insanity. On the other hand, you have the people that put the land package together that became Ultra Petroleum, one of the most successful oil and gas stories of the last decade led by the prominent personalities of Marc Bruner and Allan Laird et al, as well as the leadership of Ben Law, the former U.S. Geologist who first came up with the concept of basin centered gas. If he’s right and this play in Hungary has the potential 100 TCF of gas that he is suggesting, then this price could prove to be dirt-cheap. If… Either way, it’s going to be story you won’t be able to ignore. We do an interview with Allan Laird, the engineer that helped develop some of the processes to make the gas in the Pinedale Anticline possible. An informal interview with his thoughts on the story so far. If you would like a copy, e-mail Sandra at sandra_ wicks@canaccord.com. Ultra Petroleum www.ultrapetroleum.com To see their presentation, go to their website at www.falconoilandgas.com |
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Mar 28th, 2006, 14:18
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只看该作者 #46 |
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Senior Member
 
注册日期: Jul 2004
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Falcon O&G: An Insider's View
来自： http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/...ime=2006-03-28 An Interview with Allan Laird, VP, Engineering and Director of Falcon Oil & Gas: March 27, 2006 Pescod and Laird C Reunited! The first time we got together, the company turned out to be worth $9 billion. Let’s see if we can focus and do something a little bigger this time, Dave, shall we? Dave Pescod: Why are you in Hungary? What are your projects, what are your assets? Allan Laird: This project resulted from a world-wide search of over 16 different countries led by a gentleman named John Gustavson. The search was high-graded and the list was narrowed down and we finally came down to Hungary as what we felt was the optimum place on the Earth to find gas. As of 2004, Hungary became a full member of the EU, which brought political and economic stability. We consider that to be very important as you have ready-access to plants, pipelines, a market in Europe that is anxious and interested in developing more domestic gas supply. So all these factors, deregulated gas prices along with a reasonable royalty structure, a reasonable corporate income tax, etc., all the economic factors are very positive in Hungary. We think it’s a great place to search for gas. Then you couple that with the tremendous geological potential of the Basin Centered Gas Accumulation (BCGA) in the Mako Trough that is supported by Dr. Ben Law. Ben of course is famous in the world of BCGA’s because he was the guy who predicted the Pinedale Anticline all the way back in 1982. He has worked for, I believe, over 28 years for the U.S. Geological Survey. He has written close to a couple of hundred technical papers and in my opinion, Ben is the number one authority in the world on this sort of gas basin. So along with all the other political and economic factors that we believe are so favorable, Ben believes that we have is a tremendously large target and that is why we are in Hungary. Dave Pescod: How big is the field? What is the size of this target? Allan Laird: Falcon has a 100% working interest in two concessions that total about 576,000 acres, which is 900 sections. Or to put it into perspective, it is 25 townships. By anyone’s standards, this is a very large land position. Our Falcon website and the SEDAR website can lead you to the external, third-party numbers. But we have also presented some internal numbers from Ben Law, who is now a consultant for Falcon Oil & Gas, so you really must consider his comments as internal company numbers. Of our total of 900 sections, Ben has identified 205 of them that he considers highly prospective. We have two key zones C the Szolnok (the upper zone) and the Endrod (the lower zone). Ben is estimating that in the Szolnok zone alone, the Potential Gas Resource in Place is 700 BCF per section. Now Dave, you would probably say that is an incredible number and of course it is. But to take you back nine years to the early days when you and I first met in the Green River Basin in Wyoming, back then we would contour maps with maybe 100 to 200 or 300 BCF a section. So while it is comparable, the Hungarian BCGA actually appears to be thicker and cover a greater area than the Wyoming BCGA. But there is another important factor to consider, as below the Szolnok, you have that other key formation called the Endrod. And you will see in our securities exchange filings that the third party engineers and geological consultants actually believe that the Endrod might even be better than the Szolnok. Ben Law estimates that there is another 60C70 TCF of potential gas in the Endrod resource. So to keep the math simple, let’s call it 140 TCF plus 60 TCF equals 200 TCF. Ben has further gone on record in several recent public presentations saying that based on the drilling results so far in our first two wells, he would now increase that estimate by 30%. So the bottom line is that a very credible expert has identified a target which has the potential to become a world class gas field. D.P: Can you put that in perspective versus Ultra Petroleum? A.L: Sure and of course, when I speak of Wyoming and the Pinedale Anticline, I am talking about the founding days when I worked for Ultra Petroleum’s original Chairman and CEO Marc Bruner, which is interesting because today, the same Marc Bruner is now the Chairman, President and CEO of Falcon. Currently, Ultra is booking 6.3 TCF of proved plus probable reserves through their third party engineers and they have a market cap of about $9 billion. D.P: This is amazing though, when you compare that to hopes of Hungary having a 100 TCF. A.L: Yes, but when you talk a potential resource of greater than 200 TCF in place, of course you have to apply a recovery factor to that. You might say 20%, I might say 50% and Ultra I believe now, is pushing up into the 80% range with continual infill drilling. If you take the lower end of the range as 20% of 200 TCF, you still are talking of a possibility of 40 TCF. Ultra is a very, very successful company with about 6 TCF so you can see that the dream that we are chasing at Falcon is something much bigger. The difference with Ultra is that we have proved that it would work. We went out and drilled and completed and tested wells and years later, you can see that our initial predictions were very accurate. Today, although Falcon has made some good progress, it is important to realize that we have not yet proven that our project will work through production testing. Falcon sits at a market cap of about $1 billion, so the stock market appears to believe that we will end up with less than 1 TCF. As an insider, you can see that I haven’t sold any stock yet so I guess you know that I believe that the bulk of the Falcon story is yet to be told. D.P: OK, very high risk with a big potential reward. What about the men and equipment to get it done? A.L: I try never to correct you Dave, but I have to say that sometimes you have given me too much credit at Falcon. Our company is much more than just Marc Bruner and Allan Laird. Along with Ben Law, our geological team is led by Dr. James Edwards, our VP Exploration, who made some world class discoveries with Triton. Dr. George Szabo is the Managing Director of our Hungarian subsidiary and he is not only the former CEO of MOL, the state oil company, he is a wonderful technical resource and a true gentleman. We also have Gary Lavold as Project Manager, a former Husky/Nova guy that is great at plants and pipelines. Lyle Nelson is our Drilling and Operations Manager, with experience in Iraq and Mongolia. We’re lucky to have Evan Wasoff as CFO and Tony Lotito as VP Corporate Finance, because this is a capital intensive project. So what we really have is a large team of talented people, where many of us have worked with Marc before and now follow his leadership into this play. As for the other soldiers in the army, Marc has already secured Halliburton and a lot of our key guys in our Hungarian office are contracted to us through Halliburton. I always remember that one of the keys to success in the Pinedale Anticline was the partnership with Halliburton, so I’m happy to see them helping us again. D.P: How is the financing going? A.L: As a Canadian, I am proud that not only did Canadians originally fund Ultra, but the first money we raised for Falcon was about $50 million on the Toronto Venture Exchange back in April 2005. We followed that with a second, heavily oversubscribed offering for $100 million this month, with strong participation from Toronto, but now also great new investors from New York and London. We’ve also announced a letter of intent with the Macquarie Bank and are now working with them to finalize a $250 million line of credit. Dave, one of the things that made Ultra not as fun as it could have been in the early years is that we were always under-funded and it forced certain decisions upon us. At Falcon, you can see that Marc has taken that experience and in less than one year, Falcon is a financially strong company with about $100 million in the bank and he is working on another ¼ billion dollars of support for the project. 此帖于 Mar 28th, 2006 14:32 被 又一村 编辑。 |
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Mar 28th, 2006, 14:20
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只看该作者 #47 |
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Senior Member
注册日期: Jul 2004
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Falcon O&G: An Insider's View
D.P: Progress to date, timing, etc. A.L: In our recent news release, we commented on our first three wells. The first well at P-1 was drilled on a nice 3-D structure from seismic that we liked, but it was a 45 km step-out. I think that a lot of people expected us to drill a dry hole. So the fact that we had hit both the Szolnok and Endrod formations was very positive and the sands look nice and thick. We also conservatively announced that we saw moderate to good porosity. Now in a BCGA, you expect to make your money from low porosity rocks so you can basically read between the lines and say, we found something better than what we thought we were drilling for. So it’s good news. The data shows that it is over-pressured, saturated with gas, and the logs show no signs of moveable water. So I’m really looking forward to completing and testing this well later this summer. The second well was a deep one at Mako-6 that is programmed to go to 6000 meters. A well this deep is a four month drilling project. What’s really neat is that we just announced that we’ve already drilled through over 900 meters of the Szolnok formation. Now remember, the Szolnok is the one that Ben Law likes the best - and 900 meters is a lot of rock… heck, call it a kilometer! We also announced that we believe that about 60% of that is sand, which looks good. Since we’re still drilling in the Szolnok, I expect that 900 meter number to go up. So it’s all very positive and interesting and exciting. If 60% of that 900 meters is good, then you would have over 500 meters of sands that we would want to complete and test. That is significantly thicker than other basins I’ve worked on and we still haven’t drilled completely through the first or even into the second of the two target formations. I expect the Mako-6 well to resume drilling and reach total depth (TD) by about the end of April. Also, our third well at the S-1 location is progressing very well and it too, looks like to will reach TD by the end of April. With three wells down, you should then expect us to spend some months designing the completions, awarding the work, mobilizing the completion and testing equipment, etc. This work will likely take us through the spring and with any luck, I expect to begin the production testing in June 2006. The drilling program should also continue and we expect to have drilled at least five wells this year. Dave, as always, it’s been fun talking with you. I appreciate the opportunity to tell the Falcon story and thank you and your readers for your interest and support. 此帖于 Mar 28th, 2006 14:32 被 又一村 编辑。 |
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Mar 28th, 2006, 19:12
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只看该作者 #48 | |
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Senior Member
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引用:
如果fo发现1TCF的天然气, 就可以达到目前的价位. 现在已经有两口相距45公里的气井发现了超压的饱和天然气, 应该不止1TCF了. 如果100TCF得到确认, fo就不会是$3了, 至少$10以上. |
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Apr 14th, 2006, 13:29
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只看该作者 #55 | ||
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Senior Member
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我的疑惑
引用:
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060111/0105939.html “During the drilling process, the operator of this potential gas well encountered extremely high gas pressures up to 10,000 pounds per square inch in several zones. The decision to case the well prior to testing based on the dangers associated with running logging tools in a well with such extremely high pressures.” 现在DOIG 走势有目共睹。 2）前面算利润，怎么没看到计算开采钻探的费用（只看到了royalty等）： “In Summary: US 5,000,000,000 (Five Billion) per 1 TCF of gas (gross) - US 600,000,000 (Six Hundred Million Total ORR/ 1 tcf) - US 300,000,000 (Three Hundred Million Total ORR/ 1 tcf) 。。。。。。” 我哪里看错了？ 3) 这么早就进场的MM，对公司的了解或许比别人更多，更早，更透彻。它不会是傻子，为什么“一直在出货”？ 引用:
请高手解惑。 【声明：本人所有言论皆为个人观点，可能不准确不完全不符合实际甚至完全谬误，因此仅供娱乐和模拟,绝不构成任何交易推荐或建议；任何人据此入市，风险自负。】 此帖于 Apr 14th, 2006 14:01 被 低手新手 编辑。 |
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Apr 15th, 2006, 20:06
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只看该作者 #58 | |
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Senior Member
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引用:
这么长时间了还没人解惑, 看来枫坛没有fo的高手了  老兄可以到StockHouse的BB上看看, 那儿有不少fo的高人 (如JR~EWING1, theknight等): http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards...=FO&table=list我个人认为, canacord 和 fo 的高层卯了劲. canacord 居然没能参与三月的Public Offering. 在Public Offering中, fo 最初准备 Offer 69,300,000 common shares, 但是投标太多, 不得不增加 7,700,000 Common Shares 方能平衡各方. Public Offering的价位为$1.30 per Common Share, 那些没能参与Public Offering的机构, 只能在市场上购买, 所以Public Offering一结束, fo的价位就持续上升. |
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