Jan 18th, 2012, 00:02 | #1 |
Julia
注册日期: Sep 2008
帖子: 276
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S&P 500
2012-01-17 市场已经严重超买,疲态尽显,但越是这样,往往最后还会再逼空一下。要做空,再耐心等等,要不就设个127.5的stop sell. 如果要健康向上突破,也该回调一下了。130已经是突破了,创新高应该是迟早的事,但如果现在马不停蹄往上串,半个一个月之后回调会跌得很惨。 年初至今high yield stock在大盘反复冲高的情况下经历较强回调,资金大量抽出,流到risky asset,risk appetite不断增强。再创新高的动力指望在materials & financials。 去年中期对financial stocks(BAC, GS, JPM, C, MS)大量做空的中线put option基本上都是本周五expire, 这些put option半年内升值巨大,现总值达几个B, 如果就此expire, 没有新的空仓开出,financial stocks还是很有希望咸鱼翻身的。 至于material stock, 就指望借中国股市的东风了。 General suggestion: buy stock, sell next month or two months later's call as hedge since call is so expensive now, plus put is so cheap, buy some put as well |
既要做多, 也要做空
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Mar 18th, 2012, 21:17 | 只看该作者 #2 |
Julia
注册日期: Sep 2008
帖子: 276
声望: 1457042
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2012-03-18 Financials broke out last week, still looking good. If you compare S&P 500 Thursday (Mar 15, 2012) with May 02, 2011 (last year's peak), earnings have been improved about 10%. Current PE is lower than May 02's. Technically, SPY could go up to 151. Overall, long financials(XLF), long industrials(XLI) and energy(XLE). Caution: XLY has created too much. XLK is overrated because of AAPL, its earning is actually down. XLV is so so. XLB is under value, but since it's tied to China too much. If China market turns good, strongly recommend material stocks. Defense sectors like XLP, XLU are not good at the moment. VXX at around 21.5, it could go down to 18/19 in one or two months. Stocks are going up, it might have some pull backs. One thing is for sure, US treasure is going down, short TLT. |
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Mar 30th, 2012, 00:43 | 只看该作者 #7 |
Julia
注册日期: Sep 2008
帖子: 276
声望: 1457042
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按字母顺序,说完AA,说两句AAPL: 2011 Q3 revenue: $28.27B 2011 Q4 revenue: $46.33B holly cow! AAPL uses Q3 as fiscal year end. 2011 total revenue is $108.25B. 2012 could go up to $200B. Cash $10.31B in the pocket! All S&P 500's average market cap is around $13B. So AAPL can easily buy a company in cash! Debt? ZERO! DEBT FREE! 纯利都是用几个B per quarter来算的,太NB了. 按照2011年的盈利水平,股价在350 - 400,2012年盈利翻番,股价翻一番实在是情有可缘! |
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Mar 30th, 2012, 09:34 | 只看该作者 #10 |
与庄共舞
注册日期: Apr 2008
帖子: 4,321
声望: 1440048
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苹果就是个有闲钱人的摇钱树,我有个朋友的朋友在深圳富士康做管理工作,据他说苹果的手机、电脑等产品的生产,严格按照严格的质量标准进行,有点儿小瑕疵的坚决不能出厂。工人们住集体宿舍,管理很规范。工人的每个程序的动作都要很标准,不行就换人。就这样,他们组装生产的利润才10美元左右/台,大部分利润都给苹果总部了。还有前段时间,经常听见富士康有跳楼的,是因为这样可以得到公司的赔偿金20万。人命真不值钱呀!!!!
此帖于 Mar 30th, 2012 10:58 被 bee88 编辑。 |
人人为我,我为人人。
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Mar 30th, 2012, 10:26 | 只看该作者 #15 |
Julia
注册日期: Sep 2008
帖子: 276
声望: 1457042
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坏的方面来看: 欧债危机还没完,时不时会跳出来搅和一下,震荡是难免的; China到底landing成怎么样,也是一个变数; 美国大选也是一个变数,市场不喜欢不确定性; 油价也是个大因数,高油价其实是支撑股市的,最近油价稍微回调一点,大盘跌得稀里哗啦;但油价过高会影响很多企业的盈利,GDP会倒退; 朝好的方面看: US unemployment rate可能会破8%, 会刺激大盘; US earning短期内看不出会有什么突变,仅从earning来看,能支撑到1500以上; 从波浪来看,这是自09来的一波牛市的最后一波,一般也是最强的一波; 总的来说,我是看多的。但我总是买和卖同时做,我喜欢细水长流式盈利。 |
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感谢 猪才怪 此篇文章之用户: |
tickerfinder (Mar 30th, 2012) |