时局之我见:)

liszt · Feb 25th, 2009, 10:41

一言以蔽之：这个月美股会有惊天（V字）逆转行情，因为已经看到主力部队开始部署。

什么时候发动战役？本周我观望。。。

----------------------------
仅为一家之言，不做任何投资参考

liszt · Feb 25th, 2009, 10:46

引用:

作者: smellyfish

抢杀

大小臭鱼的照片什么时候方便的时候PM一下

liszt · Feb 25th, 2009, 11:26

引用:

作者: 枫婆子

槛外人问：是不是在V的尖尖上买，就赚了？

是的，如果真是V字的话

我这里说的不是整个市场的彻底逆转（也许后面真是，但是不是我这里的本意），是说得本月的V字，本月以后的后市行情不知道

liszt · Feb 25th, 2009, 11:26

引用:

作者: winnerloser

你的这个标题让我想到20年前的那场运动。

一晃20年了，真快啊

liszt · Feb 25th, 2009, 22:14

引用:

作者: 枫婆子

和昨晚凹吗吧的讲话有关么？谢谢～

没什么关系，当然白宫，美联储，o8m的讲话都是主力利用的工具而已

澄清一下，我说的本月是指期权月，不是2月28日，是3月

liszt · Feb 26th, 2009, 09:19

引用:

作者: vincecarter

我一直对老李是高山仰止，能否细说一点，是否有点数据表明主力部队开始部署？你如何看出来的，希望不是不传之密

过奖过奖，没那么玄乎，我也是下猜而已

引用:

作者: 老杨

加股昨天不是已经V了吗？已经V了２天了。难道李先生说的是中期大V？

盘中的V是小V，我所指是如野渡说的“大？沟”的那种

liszt · Feb 26th, 2009, 22:19

引用:

作者: 野渡无人

l老姚啊,大V是正的还是反的啊

大V不管正反，一定要先见你说的大?沟的沟，而这个沟在我看来并没有出现，所以昨天我写了“本周我观望”：

引用:

作者: liszt

什么时候发动战役？本周我观望。。。

尽管昨日盘中出现了盘中的小V，甚至今日盘前一度再涨100多点，不过如果这就发动了本月（期权月）的攻势，那我就犯了“经验主义”错误，还好，今日晚上回来一看，跌了，就在意料之中。

大体勾勒一下后面的大?沟走势：

本周还剩最后一天，明日有Q4的GDP数据，华尔街预测跌5.4%，以及密斯根大学二月份的Sentiment Index，数据都不太可能好，所以基本没有大涨的可能，狠可能延续跌势

下周AIG的报表可能会再次将股指推向深渊，因为AIG的黑洞效应会继续将金融股砸晕；下周股指到周四的失业率公布之前恐怕已经再次濒临前期的底部区间，就差一根稻草坠落了，失业率数据公布之后很可能将股指带向新低，这样到了下下周在其他不利财报或者经济数据的打压下，股指panic，这就很有可能到了周三，周四了，即使到了这时（当周）的失业率数据仍然不好，不过“好于华尔街的预期”的可能就会大大增加了；大？沟这个时候几乎就若隐若现了，如果你的眼睛能够穿透主力的遮羞布

，你就几乎可以看见了：进场抢筹，等待大盘的疯狂反弹拉升，连续四日大阳的那种。。。本月（期权月）的交易基本就结束了

这是我对于这次主力行为的提前解读，正确与否，只有过了后面三周才知道

liszt · Feb 27th, 2009, 09:34

引用:

作者: naka

银行出事情了，不是V是^

naka没仔细看我上面写的：跌的好阿，不跌，或者说不跌出新低，就达不到我说的沟底嘛

Q4 GDP Down 6.2%, Versus The Consensus of 5.4%

花旗的消息并不奇怪，Q4 GDP的跌幅远超预期更是雪上加霜，好一切按预想的进展

liszt · Mar 1st, 2009, 10:43

引用:

作者: 温城老彭

老姚：
以我的个人分析，这个底的时间应与美国政府国有化这些银行密切相关。如果国有化快，见底就快，如果慢或者失败的话，就没有底。我个人感觉，在三、四月份就见底是不是早了点。第一美国政府办事效率没有这么快（方案需通过两院），第二这些大恶们好歹也要挣扎一会儿（他们还没有捞够钱呢）。
如果不小心搞错了的...

引用:

作者: 野渡无人

我觉得老妖是说三月底,到4月之间会有个大V,但不一定是底.

真正的底谁也不知道什么时候见.

我准备把仓位降到%5以下.

正解！

我从来没说过这里是一个大底（虽然也有可能形成--关键看后面两周的走势），从观察的主力动向来看，本月会有一个很像样的V，所以有一波行情可做，至于本月（期权月）之后怎么走，那只能到时候再看了

引用:

作者: 老杨

认真学习了领导同志的光辉著作。因为是新手，特地把学习心得写出来，请大师指正：
下周，也就是三月的第一周，该睡的睡该吃的吃，一切平安无事。
三月的第二周开始看盘，到周五进场埋伏。
三月的第三周开始，天天涨停，到周三或周四时获利出场。

另外，还有两个不明的问题：
１）三月的期权什么时候到？...

老杨的提炼是精确的，至少从文字上；我之所以没有将时间精确到日子，因为要看主力动向（德变化）到时候才能基本确定，所以你所说的上述时间可能提前也可能滞后，另外后面几日的长阳大涨，也不一定是天天连续那种，有可能是4天中只有三天大涨。。。本月的期权有两个日子，一个是第三周五，一个是月底

liszt · Mar 1st, 2009, 22:25

引用:

作者: behappy

为什么本月的期权有两个？除了日子以外，其它方面有差别吗？谢谢！

一个是正常的第三周五

一个是季度的期权（3，6，9，12月底）

liszt · Mar 1st, 2009, 22:43

March 1, 2009 10:33 PM EST

The U.S. government is set to announce its fourth bailout for "the blackhole", also known as American International Group (NYSE: AIG).

According to various reports, the insurer, which bet unwisely in the mortgage market, will receive revamped terms of the government bailout and $30 billion in additional capital as the company is set to announce a $60 billion quarterly loss - the largest loss in corporate history.

In addition, AIG will repay billions owed to the Fed with equity stakes in Asia-based American International Assurance Co. and American Life Insurance Co. instead of cash.

AIG is also expected to combine its U.S. and foreign property-casualty insurance operations into a new unit, which would be taken public.

Major credit-rating companies signed off on the latest package, which potentially saved AIG from posting another $8 billion in collateral to its counter parties.

AIG was too big to fail and now the money we've given it is too much to let it go. The scam-artists at AIG have successfully transfered the insanely risky bets they made onto the U.S. taxpayer. A complete and utter disgrace!

liszt · Mar 2nd, 2009, 19:16

大家发言，尽量不要太黄，毕竟这里还有MM们也在交流，可以用一些代名词，不宜直接露白。。。

上周我提到过的AIG财报的黑洞效应今日彻底显现，股指呈自由落体状态下滑，一切按照既定目标前进

liszt · Mar 2nd, 2009, 19:51

引用:

作者: 东山再起

天天喊见底，你总会对一次。

我天天喊过底吗？我自己怎么不知道呢？

我对于这两周的局势分析您老没看明白？等过了这两周您老再出来嘲笑不迟嘛，太急了点吧，现在

我一年之中只做几次大概率的

liszt · Mar 2nd, 2009, 20:24

引用:

作者: 野渡无人

人做股票,一般事先总有个想法,布局,

如果实际走势反了,那只剩俩字

野渡：这里一般老点的ID，有什么不同意见即使冷嘲热讽，我都还是会回一下的，经常换ID的，基本就不用理了

liszt · Mar 2nd, 2009, 20:27

引用:

作者: 东山再起

急啥，尘埃还没落定，您是偶见到的第一个预言V型反转的。

不是你在急吗？我什么时候急了，白子黑子上周四都写得很清楚了，连AIG的财报效应都提前写进去了，您老有什么不服气的？

要不要给您老单独重复一下：

引用:

作者: liszt

下周AIG的报表可能会再次将股指推向深渊，因为AIG的黑洞效应会继续将金融股砸晕；...

所以我说您老即使要嘲笑我，也要等到这两周过后嘛

我今天海蜇头吃多了，这是，和你较什么劲啊

liszt · Mar 2nd, 2009, 20:49

10am ET

Pending Home Sales for January - Street expects 3.5%

2pm ET

Auto/Truck Sales for February

liszt · Mar 3rd, 2009, 09:08

这条消息届时将会成为本月V底部反攻主力用来铺路的消息，不过不是现在，时间仍定在至少下周的某个时候。

先过本周周四的非农就业数据。

March 3, 2009 8:58 AM EST

The Obama administration continues to work on the details of the "bad bank" part of new financial rescue plan, and is considering creating multiple investment funds to purchase the "legacy" assets that litter the bank's balance sheets, according to reports from the Wall Street Journal. Link to Fact Sheet of the "Financial Stability Plan".

According to the report, no decision has been made on the final structure of the so-called private-public financing partnership, but one leading idea is to establish separate funds to be run by private investment managers. The managers would have to put up a certain amount of capital. Additional financing would come from the government, which would share in any profit or loss.

The private investment managers would run the funds, deciding which assets to buy and what prices to pay and the government will contribute money from the Treasury and Federal Reserve. To encourage participation, the government would try to minimize risk for private investors, possibly by offering non-recourse loans.

liszt · Mar 4th, 2009, 08:42

今日主要经济数据：

8:15am ET

ADP Employment Report for February - Street expects 630K, compared to 522K last month

消息已出：According to today's ADP National Employment Report, private sector employment decreased by 697,000 in February. The consensus was a drop of 630,000. Last month's reading was revised to a drop of 614,000.

这样明天的非农payroll数字也会很难看

10am ET

ISM Services for February - Street expects 41

10:30am ET

Crude Inventories

2pm ET

Fed Beige Book

liszt · Mar 4th, 2009, 13:15

引用:

作者: 老杨

但问题是今天大涨啊。

这个还不叫大涨

另外如果今天还不涨一下的话，下周的节奏就很难

因为如果连续跌下去，中间不揣口气的话，就要提前发作，这个根据我的经验，可能性不大，所以大盘的节奏需要这个时候揣口气，甚至“大涨”一下，这样才能在下周某个时候panic

liszt · Mar 5th, 2009, 09:17

March 5, 2009 8:31 AM EST

Initial Jobless Claims Comes in at 639,000 versus the consensus of 650,000.

Continuing Claims Come in at 5.106M, versus the consensus of 5.155M

Unit Labor Costs Rise 5.7%, Versus The Consensus of 3.8%
Nonfarm Productivity Down 0.4%, Versus the consensus of +1%

10am ET

Factory Orders for January - Street expects down 3.5%

Feb 25th, 2009, 10:41	#1
liszt 告别2011 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 14,210 积分:130 精华:30	时局之我见:) 一言以蔽之：这个月美股会有惊天（V字）逆转行情，因为已经看到主力部队开始部署。什么时候发动战役？本周我观望。。。 ---------------------------- 仅为一家之言，不做任何投资参考
liszt 告别2011 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 14,210 积分:130 精华:30

Mar 1st, 2009, 22:43	#11
liszt 告别2011 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 14,210 积分:130 精华:30 声望: 6885868	AIG To Receive Another $30B March 1, 2009 10:33 PM EST The U.S. government is set to announce its fourth bailout for "the blackhole", also known as American International Group (NYSE: AIG). According to various reports, the insurer, which bet unwisely in the mortgage market, will receive revamped terms of the government bailout and $30 billion in additional capital as the company is set to announce a $60 billion quarterly loss - the largest loss in corporate history. In addition, AIG will repay billions owed to the Fed with equity stakes in Asia-based American International Assurance Co. and American Life Insurance Co. instead of cash. AIG is also expected to combine its U.S. and foreign property-casualty insurance operations into a new unit, which would be taken public. Major credit-rating companies signed off on the latest package, which potentially saved AIG from posting another $8 billion in collateral to its counter parties. AIG was too big to fail and now the money we've given it is too much to let it go. The scam-artists at AIG have successfully transfered the insanely risky bets they made onto the U.S. taxpayer. A complete and utter disgrace!

Mar 2nd, 2009, 20:49	#16
liszt 告别2011 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 14,210 积分:130 精华:30 声望: 6885868	明日主要经济数据： 10am ET Pending Home Sales for January - Street expects 3.5% 2pm ET Auto/Truck Sales for February

Mar 5th, 2009, 09:17	#20
liszt 告别2011 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 14,210 积分:130 精华:30 声望: 6885868	今日主要经济数据 March 5, 2009 8:31 AM EST Initial Jobless Claims Comes in at 639,000 versus the consensus of 650,000. Continuing Claims Come in at 5.106M, versus the consensus of 5.155M Unit Labor Costs Rise 5.7%, Versus The Consensus of 3.8% Nonfarm Productivity Down 0.4%, Versus the consensus of +1% 10am ET Factory Orders for January - Street expects down 3.5%

Mar 2nd, 2009, 19:16	#12
liszt 告别2011 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 14,210 积分:130 精华:30 声望: 6885868	大家发言，尽量不要太黄，毕竟这里还有MM们也在交流，可以用一些代名词，不宜直接露白。。。上周我提到过的AIG财报的黑洞效应今日彻底显现，股指呈自由落体状态下滑，一切按照既定目标前进

Mar 3rd, 2009, 09:08	#17
liszt 告别2011 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 14,210 积分:130 精华:30 声望: 6885868	这条消息届时将会成为本月V底部反攻主力用来铺路的消息，不过不是现在，时间仍定在至少下周的某个时候。先过本周周四的非农就业数据。 March 3, 2009 8:58 AM EST The Obama administration continues to work on the details of the "bad bank" part of new financial rescue plan, and is considering creating multiple investment funds to purchase the "legacy" assets that litter the bank's balance sheets, according to reports from the Wall Street Journal. Link to Fact Sheet of the "Financial Stability Plan". According to the report, no decision has been made on the final structure of the so-called private-public financing partnership, but one leading idea is to establish separate funds to be run by private investment managers. The managers would have to put up a certain amount of capital. Additional financing would come from the government, which would share in any profit or loss. The private investment managers would run the funds, deciding which assets to buy and what prices to pay and the government will contribute money from the Treasury and Federal Reserve. To encourage participation, the government would try to minimize risk for private investors, possibly by offering non-recourse loans.

Mar 4th, 2009, 08:42	#18
liszt 告别2011 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 14,210 积分:130 精华:30 声望: 6885868	今日主要经济数据： 8:15am ET ADP Employment Report for February - Street expects 630K, compared to 522K last month 消息已出：According to today's ADP National Employment Report, private sector employment decreased by 697,000 in February. The consensus was a drop of 630,000. Last month's reading was revised to a drop of 614,000. 这样明天的非农payroll数字也会很难看 10am ET ISM Services for February - Street expects 41 10:30am ET Crude Inventories 2pm ET Fed Beige Book