NO NDP - 用数据说话

[驾车兜风]

转发一位父亲给家人的信。有理，有据，用数据和事实说话，没有党派评论。虽然是英文，但行文简洁，通俗易懂，建议大家看一下。

A Dad writing a letter to his children about the upcoming election in Alberta.

Dear Family:

On May 5, 2015, I wrote a heartfelt email to all of you stating that the NDP election would adversely impact our standard of living and each of our lives. Now that Notley and the NDP are campaigning for re-election, after 4 years in power, prudent voters need to examine the NDP record before marking their ballots on election day. I will not try to unduly influence your vote, but it is my fond hope that you will review and understand the facts set out below and make an informed decision in the best interests of your family, city and province on election day.

Personal Wealth

Over the last 4 years Alberta’s net financial assets have decreased by $47 Billion. During that period the equity in Alberta housing has decreased by an estimated $27 Billion. Based on a population of 4.3 million, that means that every man woman and child is on average $15,000 poorer today than in 2015 - $60,000 for a family of four.

Jobs

In 2014, 431,000 individuals were employed in the resource sector while 467,000 were employed in education, healthcare and public administration. (all numbers from Statistics Canada). In late 2018, 401,000 individuals were employed in the resource sector while 551,000 were employed in education, healthcare and public administration. During that period the public sector added 84,000 jobs (18%) while that portion of the private sector shrank by 7%. The government’s share of total employment is now 23.2% - the highest in decades.

Taxes

Corporate and personal income taxes (provincial & federal) have increased dramatically and we now also have a carbon tax which was not mentioned in the NDP’s 2015 campaign.

Cost of Government

Even after 4 very tough years, the cost per capita ($12,717) of delivering Alberta’s government services, continues to be 14% higher than the average cost for the 4 largest provinces. No attempt has been made to reduce those costs or otherwise balance them with the vastly reduced revenues experienced during the downturn.

Debt

When the NDP took over in 2015, Alberta had no provincial debt. The debt is forecast to be $71 Billion next year and is projected to grow to over $100 Billion in the next 4 years, IF the NDP are re-elected.

What About all of the Other Social and Non-Financial Issues?

Healthcare wait times? Average class sizes? New schools & hospitals? Environmental stewardship? Human rights? Personal freedoms? Commitment to the arts? The rights & freedoms of the LGBTQ and other defined groups? Other social issues?

If the economy is not strong, the budget not balanced and the debt not brought under control, the province will not be able to afford to adequately deal with those issues. Our standard of living, which has already materially eroded under the NDP, will continue to deteriorate. Societies that put their financial house in order first have the flexibility to address the other needs and wants of the citizens. The extreme example of a country that followed the spend/borrow/tax/repeat path can be seen in the disaster that is Venezuela today.

Who will have to pay back the debt?

My generation will not be around to service the interest and repay the massive debt that your government has incurred. That burden will fall to my children and their cohort and to the children of that group. Interest on the debt, together with repayment of principal, will become an increasingly more painful annual cost which government can only fund with increased taxes – a vicious downward spiral.

Living Within One’s Means

I am very proud of the fact that each and every one of you understands how to budget responsibly and that you are committed to living within your personal means. The Alberta government forecast says they will run another $6.9 Billion deficit this year, which means they will have to borrow those funds at ever increasing rates because the province’s credit rating has been materially impaired. The City of Calgary continues to substantially live beyond its means with misplaced priorities and many programs introduced in better times and are now much too expensive to maintain and in some cases of questionable utility.

The federal government’s aggregate deficit under the Liberals since 2015 is $60 Billion and the recent budget confirms they are planning to run further deficits totaling an additional $66 Billion over the next 4 years, IF re-elected.

Question

I only have one very important question for each of you:

Do you think it is time for the Alberta government to exercise the same level of financial discipline and prudence that each of you is required to demonstrate in your personal lives?

I am hopeful that your answer to that question will guide your decision at the ballot box on April 16th.

Love,

Dad

[jo jo]

LOL，excercise the common financial discipline?
Guess how much some one borrows for building a home? Four to five times their household incomes.
Guess what the usual amortization for the debt is? 25-30 years.
And, don’t mention how popular credit cards and other loans are amongst the generations since 1980s.

It is a good story, but do need another try.

[jo jo]

btw just fyi
431,000 + 467,000 = 898000
401,000 + 551,000 = 952000
952000 > 898000

[Coughing Machine]

顶师妹

[驾车兜风]

作者: jo jo

LOL，excercise the common financial discipline?
Guess how much some one borrows for building a home? Four to five times their household incomes.
Gu...

不要搅和政府与个人和公司的负债。政府和公司是私人行为，一旦破产，倒霉的只是自己。政府负债是全省民的，政府花纳税人的钱是要对全民负责的。一个对全民不负责任的政府就不是好政府，选民们就应该去投票推翻他们。支持他们的，这些人大多数是利益中人，从全民甚至下一代的损失中获利。

另外，负债的前提是有足够的saving和cash flow. 这四年，NDP的政策导致许多公司资不抵债，只好破产；不破产的收缩经营，大砍员工，导致许多人丢失了工作。其中不少人因为个人负责太多，也破产了。

难道你对这些仍嗤之以鼻，甚至LOL？

[wjrichard]

质疑：
这位父亲的统计数据过于专业化，好像不是写一封家书而是官腔十足的审计报告。可能是UCP竞选团队杜撰的。关于AB的债务也是段章取意，割断历史的连续性。

一家之主会用这些令人头晕眼花的数字和絮絮叨叨的八股文体和家人交流？不真实！
他应当简洁地说：我认为我们家都选UCP。具体问题电话里解释。

[rasZX]

作者: 驾车兜风

不要搅和政府与个人和公司的负债。政府和公司是私人行为，一旦破产，倒霉的只是自己。政府负债是全省民的，政府花纳税人的钱是要对全民负责的。一个对全民不负责任的政府就不是好政府，选民们就应该去投票推翻他们。支持他们的，这些人大多数是利益中人，从全民甚至下一代的损失中获利。

另外，负债的前提是有足够的sa...

个人负债最好房子变便宜了，政府和公司不能破产，要破产了影响更大，个人破产就影响一个家庭，公司破产影响许多人。

[giss]

ucp只有把这些投机政客让时间淘汰了才能脱胎换骨，重新做人。ndp刚刚干一届，还是油价最低时期，负债根本免不了，notley这几年干的不错

[jo jo]

作者: 驾车兜风

不要搅和政府与个人和公司的负债。政府和公司是私人行为，一旦破产，倒霉的只是自己。政府负债是全省民的，政府花纳税人的钱是要对全民负责的。一个对全民不负责任的政府就不是好政府，选民们就应该去投票推翻他们。支持他们的，这些人大多数是利益中人，从全民甚至下一代的损失中获利。

另外，负债的前提是有足够的sa...

是你文里的爸爸提的啊 所以我建议他try again，可能会把故事讲好点


It says: Do you think it is time for the Alberta government to exercise the same level of financial discipline and prudence that each of you is required to demonstrate in your personal lives?

[HXS1966]

作者: jo jo

btw just fyi
431,000 + 467,000 = 898000
401,000 + 551,000 = 952000
952000 > 898000

文章作者引用数据是混乱的，资源业就业的人数数据是全加的（阿省大约是17万人），医疗教育就业人数是阿省的（全加，近老师数量就近80万，医疗又是加拿大第一行业）。
不应该出自UPC团队，错误太幼稚了。

[HXS1966]

作者: giss

ucp只有把这些投机政客让时间淘汰了才能脱胎换骨，重新做人。ndp刚刚干一届，还是油价最低时期，负债根本免不了，notley这几年干的不错

这次选举上台后，但愿UCP会吸取教训，把阿省做的更好（NDP做的大多数方面不错）。

[jo jo]

咳，点一点就够了，点两点 偶都有点不好意思

这个把拔还忘了算，要照当年PC proposed的预案，他要多交多少税呢。也选择忘记，UCP不小心滴，也没想过把提高了的个税压下去，只想了大减企业税

[HXS1966]

阿省房价下跌造成270亿净资产流失，那么安省房价上涨一倍就是人均房子净资产上涨一倍了，难道是功绩，可以来颂扬安省前政府？

[lotusleaf]

作者: jo jo

咳，点一点就够了，点两点 偶都有点不好意思

这个把拔还忘了算，要照当年PC proposed的预案，他要多交多少税呢。也选择忘记，UCP不小心滴，也没想过把提高了的个税压下去，只想了大减企业税

就是因为这个我本不打算投UCP的，想投AP的，要不是Notley 那拿腔拿调的油管广告太烦人，我也不至于因为碳税那点蝇头小利投了UCP。

[jo jo]

作者: lotusleaf

就是因为这个我本不打算投UCP的，想投AP的，要不是Notley 那拿腔拿调的油管广告太烦人，我也不至于因为碳税那点蝇头小利投了UCP。

嗯呐，回收得了一点比没有的好 点赞
我还OK，有人头也有些别的办法，啥政策都能相对走位，所以选颜值 对得起眼睛就好咯

但从整体经济看村况
刺激生产还是刺激消费 只是两种不同的经济主张，表面看村里经济的大病是产业结构问题，他俩谁都没能力四年解决产业结构性失业的大杀伤。
避重就轻地表面降低劳工成本，税务成本，不能解决需求疲软的问题，多馀的钱只会落入资本家口袋后 并不会创造更多就业。
反而加大政府支出 才是实打实的增加就业。就像文里那个爸爸举出的数字952>898，政府增加的就业也是给了人民的，不是给了外星人。
不过，同样地，改善了就业也不是改善了经济，都是只能事后验证的事儿

[Chinaian]

你们分析吧，分析吧，
扯蛋吧，扯淡吧。
你们说破了大天，
额还是老主意，
非投共产党不可。
额奏是要当阿省的申纪兰。

[jo jo]

小吃，今年咱党一个candidate都没出吖。。。

[Coughing Machine]

作者: HXS1966

阿省房价下跌造成270亿净资产流失，那么安省房价上涨一倍就是人均房子净资产上涨一倍了，难道是功绩，可以来颂扬安省前政府？

呵呵，按他的逻辑，温哥华应该感谢大陆人炒房～

[Coughing Machine]

不投，你奏是孙子～

[jo jo]

我想到一个羞羞的事儿，，，村里人口不增长了一些嘛，，，都不知 是不是 NDP 干了嘛 了～！