【讨论】北美股市经验谈

liszt · Sep 20th, 2009, 20:15

其实C让分析师们也够头痛的：

September 17, 2009 6:01 PM EDT

Is Rochdale Securities' banking analyst Dick Bove losing it? This man is all over the place on Citigroup (NYSE: C). On one hand he thinks the stock can go to $15-$16 on "normalized" earnings of $1.23 per share, on the other hand he says the stock is worth $5.

It is our option that Mr. Bove is making questionable comments about the earnings power, the stock price and the government stake.

First on the earnings power. If Citi earned $1.23 per share they would have to be making about $30 billion a year in "normal" profits, based on the 23 billion shares outstanding currently. Putting $30 billion in profits in prospective - Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), the most profitable company in the world, only earned $45 billion in 2008 when gas prices were sky high. Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), another very profitable company, earned $14.6 billion in 2009. On a comparable basis, JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) earned just $5.6 billion in 2008 and $15.4 billion in 2007. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) earned $15 billion in the 2007 go-go days. Citi itself earned just $20.4 billion in the go-go days of 2006. Currently Citigroup is losing money hand-over-fist, is still on the hook for billions more in TARP which it is paying hefty interest on, and is shrinking its business and leverage. So how in the hell is Citigroup going to earn $30 billion? This may not happen in my lifetime.

The market cap of Citigroup if it traded at $15-$16 per share would be $345-$368 billion. Again to put this in perspective. JPM's market cap is $177 billion. XOM's is the highest at $335 billion. So in others words, Citigroup would be the most valuable stock in the world. Give me a break!

In addition to these questionable comments on the earnings power and stock price, Bove may be spreading a misinterpretation of CEO Vikrim Pandit's comments about the U.S. government's new 7.7 billion common shares. In today's note on Citigroup, Bove said that Pandit's comments from yesterday's conference suggests that the U.S. will not be selling its stake for some time. This could not be further from the truth. Pandit clearly said that the government has no restriction on their stock and may sell at any time. How in the hell did he get his interpretation?

Bove's comments on Citigroup are nothing short of reckless.

liszt · Sep 20th, 2009, 20:16

引用:

作者: W.A.Mozart

下周三是美联储议息公告，到时候形势就明朗了。

FOMC经常成为大盘发力的时机

liszt · Sep 20th, 2009, 20:36

引用:

作者: W.A.Mozart

请教老姚看好的下一个板块是哪一个板块？或者下周初怎样去观察和挖掘下一个热点板块？

金融板块！

本来我认为9.18的OE金融板块就应该发力的，结果疲软，只有MA不负我所望

9.30的OE该轮到金融板块了

liszt · Sep 22nd, 2009, 16:40

引用:

作者: W.A.Mozart

今天S&P100成份股成交量前十名的股票全部上涨，为明天拂晓的战斗擦亮钢枪？
军号已吹响（联储公告？），
钢枪已擦亮（今晚A股？），
行装已背好（G20峰会？），
部队要出发（我先潜伏？）。。。。。。

完全背书您老的背景分析！看得出来您老绝对是一个老华尔街人！敬礼！

Sep 20th, 2009, 20:15	#1
liszt 告别2011 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 14,210 积分:130 精华:30	其实C让分析师们也够头痛的： September 17, 2009 6:01 PM EDT Is Rochdale Securities' banking analyst Dick Bove losing it? This man is all over the place on Citigroup (NYSE: C). On one hand he thinks the stock can go to $15-$16 on "normalized" earnings of $1.23 per share, on the other hand he says the stock is worth $5. It is our option that Mr. Bove is making questionable comments about the earnings power, the stock price and the government stake. First on the earnings power. If Citi earned $1.23 per share they would have to be making about $30 billion a year in "normal" profits, based on the 23 billion shares outstanding currently. Putting $30 billion in profits in prospective - Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), the most profitable company in the world, only earned $45 billion in 2008 when gas prices were sky high. Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), another very profitable company, earned $14.6 billion in 2009. On a comparable basis, JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) earned just $5.6 billion in 2008 and $15.4 billion in 2007. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) earned $15 billion in the 2007 go-go days. Citi itself earned just $20.4 billion in the go-go days of 2006. Currently Citigroup is losing money hand-over-fist, is still on the hook for billions more in TARP which it is paying hefty interest on, and is shrinking its business and leverage. So how in the hell is Citigroup going to earn $30 billion? This may not happen in my lifetime. The market cap of Citigroup if it traded at $15-$16 per share would be $345-$368 billion. Again to put this in perspective. JPM's market cap is $177 billion. XOM's is the highest at $335 billion. So in others words, Citigroup would be the most valuable stock in the world. Give me a break! In addition to these questionable comments on the earnings power and stock price, Bove may be spreading a misinterpretation of CEO Vikrim Pandit's comments about the U.S. government's new 7.7 billion common shares. In today's note on Citigroup, Bove said that Pandit's comments from yesterday's conference suggests that the U.S. will not be selling its stake for some time. This could not be further from the truth. Pandit clearly said that the government has no restriction on their stock and may sell at any time. How in the hell did he get his interpretation? Bove's comments on Citigroup are nothing short of reckless.
liszt 告别2011 注册日期: Jul 2004 帖子: 14,210 积分:130 精华:30