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旧 Feb 12th, 2005, 09:38     #1
小橘灯
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默认 现在是买房子的好时机吗?

听说房价在下跌,可是又需要买房子,因为新添了宝宝,爸爸妈妈也要从国内过来,住在APARTMENT里实在是划不来。
现在不会是下跌的起点吧,该不会一买了房子,价钱就跌呀跌的。
听说从美国要移民来大约两万人,他们的到来会使房价上涨吗?
有没有高手指点一下?
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旧 Feb 12th, 2005, 10:04   只看该作者   #2
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默认

自己住就别费心计算这个啦!需要的时候就买,专家的意见都是各说各话,到头来你还是一团浆糊。呵呵!
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旧 Feb 12th, 2005, 12:02   只看该作者   #3
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默认 老Joe, 你这才真真是专家意见!

需要的时候就买!其实,买也就是为了需要嘛
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作者: ChinaSmileJoe
自己住就别费心计算这个啦!需要的时候就买,专家的意见都是各说各话,到头来你还是一团浆糊。呵呵!
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旧 Feb 12th, 2005, 12:54   只看该作者   #4
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默认

如果只是自用,什么时候买都是好时机,只要量力而行即可,有时候家的感觉是多少钱都买不到的。
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旧 Feb 12th, 2005, 19:16   只看该作者   #5
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默认

天哪~~~
大家还是给点实质性的建议吧。
你们现在的建议都太人性化了。
至少让我买个明白也好啊。
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作者: heysheep
如果只是自用,什么时候买都是好时机,只要量力而行即可,有时候家的感觉是多少钱都买不到的。
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旧 Feb 12th, 2005, 20:24   只看该作者   #6
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默认

我觉得大家的意见并没错,你本来就不是为了投资,而是因为需要的自住房子跟房市没什么太大关系 - 即房市涨跌不应是考虑因素之一。
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旧 Feb 12th, 2005, 20:26   只看该作者   #7
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Arrow

如果那些前几年因为买房而变为"负资产"的香港人也这样想就不会个个要死要活,跳楼躲债了.
买房么,自己住,你不卖是不会亏的.大家都这么说也这么想.
但有人不这样想,所以他们大把大把的赚了钱,成了房产投资(商)个人.他们可以将你变成"负资产",因为他们想从房产买卖中赚到最多的欲望是不可能停止的.他们可以将整个房产市场导向有利于他们牟利的方向.但却可能有一天由普通老百姓来承受房产市场下辍甚至泡沫破碎蹦盘后的阵痛.你见过李嘉成在房产买卖中亏了没?没有! 是普通香港老百姓来帮他买单的,哪怕你的所有DOWNPAYMENT 和房产全部抵押给银行,你也还是欠银行和财务公司一大节,你可能只有破产或一辈子给银行打工还债了.还完债,还是没房子住.
干什么都有个游戏规则,不是你想不想愿不原的.一旦你买房,你就上了房产市场的船,不管你是自住还是投资,你都得把它当投资,向本坛的一位前市长一样运筹帷幄.否则你就会成为哪些房产投资商的未来买单人,甚至未来"负资产"的最佳人选.

香港房产泡沫蹦盘和多伦多房产97年后直线下跌的教训还在,所以还是有那么一些人一直在观望或改向其它投资工具.

所以各位房产买卖人事不可麻痹大意,不要以为自住就没风险!那是房产BROKER邀你上船时用的,可不能拿来自欺欺人啊!
资本主义国家什么都不是没风险的,房产的涨和跌也不是你我能预知的,唯有保持警惕!!!!
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旧 Feb 12th, 2005, 21:09   只看该作者   #8
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默认 如果钱够,越早买越划算

你每月的房租都是扔河里的,几年下来,够一个首期的了。
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旧 Feb 12th, 2005, 21:23   只看该作者   #9
fushao
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默认 以下故事是真的,我不一定把数据记的完全,但基本是这样的.

1996年,我一香港同事(大中华地区经理)花1200港币买了一APARTMENT.
自己付了$240万,找银行借了960万.他买来自住来着.他不卖是不会亏的.
香港房产泡沫破灭后,他那套APARTMENT只值$700万(这时候他还欠银行$930万)了.同时他失业了,银行见他资不抵债(这时候可没人管你是自住还是投资的),就要求他提供新的抵押或拍卖他的房子,在那种情况下,谁也不会借钱给他,何况人人自危呢!他没办法,只有同意拍卖,卖了$700万,还了银行,还净欠银行$230万.
他就这样由一名拥有$240万正资产的中产阶级变成了"负资产"的破产者.
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旧 Feb 12th, 2005, 21:38   只看该作者   #10
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默认

引用:
作者: fushao
1996年,我一香港同事(大中华地区经理)花1200港币买了一APARTMENT.
自己付了$240万,找银行借了960万.他买来自住来着.他不卖是不会亏的.
香港房产泡沫破灭后,他那套APARTMENT只值$700万(这时候他还欠银行$930万)了.同时他失业了,银行见他资不抵债(这时候可没人管你是自住还是投资的),就要求他提供新的抵押或拍卖他的房子,在那种情况下,谁也不会借钱给他,何况人人自危呢!他没办法,只有同意拍卖,卖了$700万,还了银行,还净欠银行$230万.
他就这样由一名拥有$240万正资产的中产阶级变成了"负资产"的破产者.
呵呵,惨。

本地房市也有类似经历,80末香港人来,炒高了2、3倍,每两周涨一万。

然后就是跌了一半,十年半死不活的,直到大陆移民来给翻了身。
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旧 Feb 12th, 2005, 21:58   只看该作者   #11
fushao
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Exclamation

什么事都是仁者见仁,智者见智.我只是喜欢在人人都准备买房时,给GGJJDDMM们讲一点不好听的.
正如2000年IT热时,我向我同学和朋友泼冷水,反对他们跟风(虽然他们有一个在IT方面绝对有天赋);而相反,指导他们把PEO执照顺利办下来(那时人人搞电脑,PEO没现在这么难),所以他们能分别从事年薪70K-80K的PERMANENT专业工作至今无忧.
紧接着的ACCOUNT,PSW,电工也会如此的,大家得谨慎了!
反正什么事一阵风,就要注意了!
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旧 Feb 12th, 2005, 22:08   只看该作者   #12
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默认

引用:
作者: b747lr
呵呵,惨。

本地房市也有类似经历,80末香港人来,炒高了2、3倍,每两周涨一万。

然后就是跌了一半,十年半死不活的,直到大陆移民来给翻了身。

有没有相关的资料,也好有个了解。
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旧 Feb 13th, 2005, 07:48   只看该作者   #13
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Exclamation http://www.mississauga4sale.com/avgprices.JPG

自己看吧,兄弟,起跌的怪吓人的吧.可别吓着了!
正资产变"负资产"的案理都是在象这种情况下出现的,从这张1985-2004年房产起跌图,让我很容易联想到1997-1998年香港房产蹦盘时的:"山雨欲来风满楼"的景象.这案例中国内陆来的移民可能不清楚,但沿海地区和广东省香港来的新移民应该是历历在目!


http://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm#graph

此帖于 Feb 13th, 2005 12:14 被 fushao 编辑。
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旧 Feb 13th, 2005, 07:52   只看该作者   #14
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默认 看看空置率和房租的下降趋势吧,好象是一直在掉

RENT and VACANCY COMPARABLES for year 2003


One Bedroom
Two Bedroom
Vacancy

Toronto
$884
$1,040
Over 3.8 %

Hamilton
$633
$778
3.0 %

Ontario Historical Rent Increase Guidelines

Date Percent

Oct 1979 6.0
Jan 1985 4.0
Jan 1987 5.2
Jan 1988 4.7
Jan 1989 4.6
Jan 1990 4.6
Jan 1991 5.4
Jan 1992 6.0
Jan 1993 4.9
Jan 1994 3.2
Jan 1995 2.9
Jan 1996 2.8
Jan 1997 2.8
Jan 1998 3.0
Jan 1999 3.0
Jan 2000 2.6
Jan 2001 2.9
Jan 2002 3.9
Jan 2003 2.9
Jan 2004 2.9
Jan 2005 1.5
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旧 Feb 13th, 2005, 08:21   只看该作者   #15
fushao
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Arrow The graph below clearly shows the pattern of the annual real estate cycle for Toronto

看看1995年到现在的情况吧.这些PEO ENGINEER的人做的比房产经纪和BROKER做的客观吧, PEO ENGINEER才有义务站在公众利益方面说话,一般的BROKER是不可能的.

The graph below clearly shows the pattern of the annual real estate cycle for Toronto, Ontario.

http://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBavg1995date.htm
http://www.mississauga4sale.com/avgprice1995todate.jpg
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旧 Feb 13th, 2005, 10:00   只看该作者   #16
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Thumbs up Shall We Buy or Rent

引用:
作者: 小橘灯
听说房价在下跌,可是又需要买房子,因为新添了宝宝,爸爸妈妈也要从国内过来,住在APARTMENT里实在是划不来。
现在不会是下跌的起点吧,该不会一买了房子,价钱就跌呀跌的。
听说从美国要移民来大约两万人,他们的到来会使房价上涨吗?
有没有高手指点一下?
------------------------------------------------------------------------

这是一篇相对来说比较客观的文章,认真读一下,相信对楼主有帮助的!

http://www.stretcher.com/stories/970505c.cfm



To buy or not to buy, that is the question. Like most of life, there are no easy answers. For many, it's a simple matter of economics. If you can afford it, you buy. After all, isn't home ownership an essential element of the "American dream"?

For others, it's not so automatic. Some folks are overwhelmingly enthusiastic about renting versus owning. They cite many reasons, including the freedom to spend their weekends doing things other than mowing the lawn, repairs, and house painting.

In most areas of the country, it's less expensive to rent than to buy. But what if you are able to buy your home outright with no mortgage? Your obligations for taxes, insurance and repairs may be considerably less than rent. However, it's important to remember you are spending the "opportunity cost" of your purchase money. For example, if you buy a home for $200,000, that money could conservatively earn you $12,000 per year at a 6% return if you didn't buy. Can you rent the same home for less than $12,000 plus the amount of your taxes, insurance and repairs?

But what about appreciation? This is an investment issue. Where do you feel most comfortable investing your savings? If you really believe residential real estate is a good choice, then you might want to buy a home. But don't forget the people who lost significant amounts in recent years when they sold their homes in down markets. You need to be prepared to keep your home for many years to be confident of appreciation. We are a mobile, changing society. How many people can feel sure that their needs and desires in housing won't change over the long haul?

People who rent talk about other, more subtle benefits. Renting an apartment often involves having less room to store things that we really don't need or want, less space to clean. Renting eliminates concerns about property taxes, insurance, and the economic risks of earthquakes, floods and hurricanes. There is a sense of freedom with renting. If you lose your job and need to reduce your expenses, you can change your housing more easily without suffering further economic losses.

Let's consider some of the tangible benefits of owning a home. Some people love to garden and it is often difficult to get a landlord's permission to tear up existing landscaping for a garden. Others want to have pets which are rarely popular with landlords. Privacy is often mentioned as a benefit of owning a home. While this is undoubtedly relevant when considering a home versus an apartment, you can always rent a home if you want privacy.

There are also intangible benefits of owning a home. People talk about a sense of security and a sense of pride. When you rent, your landlord can kick you out when your lease expires. If you own, you are unlikely to be forced to move (unless your local government decides to build a freeway through your living room).

Why do we have a greater sense of pride in owning than in renting a home? The answer to this question reveals the underlying symbolism we ascribe to home ownership. In our society, home ownership represents a form of status. It means that you have arrived at a certain socio-economic level. We have been taught that home ownership is a wonderful dream, a significant accomplishment. So, it's understandable that you would feel a sense of pride when you reach this milestone.
For some reason, we take better care of our homes when we own them. Perhaps it is because we view our home as an extension of ourselves, a reflection of our status in life, a way to impress others. Unfortunately, some people devote their entire lives working in jobs that are exhausting and stressful to pay for increasingly larger, more expensive homes that they have neither the time nor the energy to really enjoy.

In our society of "more is better" we want to own as much as possible. A more spiritual approach would be to realize that we are living this life as stewards of the earth and that we are only temporarily using the necessities of life. From this perspective, it's less important to own a home. I challenge you to base your decision to buy or rent on the tangible benefits that affect your quality of life. Home ownership is not an essential element of the American dream.
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默认 买房的好处

The benefits of buying a house


Why should you buy, instead of rent? You’ll love the feeling of having something that's all yours -- a home where your own personal style will tell the world who you are. A thriving vegetable garden in the backyard, a tiled entryway, a yellow kitchen. When you own, you can do it all your way!

Many benefits
But there's more to owning a home than personal satisfaction. You can deduct the cost of your mortgage loan interest from your federal income taxes, and usually from your state taxes, too. And interest will compose nearly all of your monthly payment , for over half the number of years you'll be paying your mortgage. This adds up to hefty savings at the end of each year. And you're also allowed to deduct the property taxes you pay as a homeowner. If you rent, you write your monthly check and it's gone forever. Another financial plus in owning a home is the possibility its value will go up through the years.

HUD homes
Housing and Urban Development (HUD) homes can be a very good deal. When someone with a HUD insured mortgage can't meet the payments, the lender forecloses on the home. HUD pays the lender what is owed and HUD takes ownership of the home. Then HUD sells it at market value as quickly as possible

Bad credit and no down payment
Have bad credit and no money for a down payment? You may be a good candidate for one of the federal mortgage programs that are available. A good place for you to start is by contacting one of the HUD-funded housing counseling agencies. They can help you sort through your options. In addition, contact your local government to see if there are any local homeownership programs that might work for you. Look in the blue pages of your phone directory for your local office of housing and community development or, if you can’t find it, contact your mayor's office or your county executive's office.

Single family incomes
Although you won’t have the benefit of two incomes on which to qualify for a loan, there's no reason that you can't become a homeowner. Become familiar with the process, pick a good real estate broker and think about getting pre-qualified for a loan. You might want to contact one of the HUD-funded housing counseling agencies in your area to talk through your options.

You also might want to think about buying a HUD home. They can be very good deals. Also, contact your local government to see if there are any local homebuying programs that can help you. Look in the blue pages of your phone directory for your local office of housing and community development or, if you can't find it, contact your mayor's office or your county executive's office.

Finding and using a real estate broker
Using a real estate broker is a very good idea. All the details involved in home buying, particularly the financial ones, can be mind-boggling. A good real estate professional can guide you through the entire process and make the experience much easier. A real estate broker will be well-acquainted with all the important things you'll want to know about a neighborhood you may be considering -- the quality of schools, the number of children in the area, the safety of the neighborhood, traffic volume and more. He or she will help you figure the price range you can afford and search the classified ads and multiple listing services for homes you'll want to see.

With immediate access to homes as soon as they're put on the market, the broker can save you hours of wasted driving-around time. When it's time to make an offer on a home, the broker can point out ways to structure your deal to save you money. He or she will explain the advantages and disadvantages of different types of mortgages, guide you through the paperwork, and be there to hold your hand and answer last-minute questions when you sign the final papers at closing. And you don't have to pay the broker anything! The payment comes from the home seller, not from the buyer. If you want to buy a HUD home, you will be required to use a real estate broker to submit your bid.

Coming up with a down payment
Coming up with enough money depends on a number of factors, including the cost of the house and the type of mortgage you get. In general, you need to come up with enough money to cover three costs: earnest money -- the deposit you make on the home when you submit your offer, to prove to the seller that you are serious about wanting to buy the house; the down payment -- a percentage of the cost of the home that you must pay when you go to settlement; and closing costs -- the costs associated with processing the paperwork to buy a house.


When you make an offer on a home, your real estate broker will put your earnest money into an escrow account. If the offer is accepted, your earnest money will be applied to the down payment or closing costs. If your offer is not accepted, your money will be returned to you. The amount of your earnest money varies. If you buy a HUD home, for example, your deposit generally will range from $500 to $2,000.

The more money you can put into your down payment, the lower your mortgage payments will be. Some types of loans require 10 to 20 percent of the purchase price. That's why many first-time homebuyers turn to HUD's FHA for help. FHA loans require only 3 percent down and sometimes less.

Closing costs, which you will pay at settlement, average 3 to 4 percent of the price of your home. These costs cover various fees your lender charges and other processing expenses. When you apply for your loan, your lender will give you an estimate of the closing costs, so you won't be caught by surprise. If you buy a HUD home, HUD may pay many of your closing costs.
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旧 Feb 13th, 2005, 10:25   只看该作者   #18
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Thumbs up Buy Vs. Rent. what's right for you?

Common wisdom holds that in the long-term, it's always better to buy a home than to rent. However, given the changes in how people work and live in the last 20 years, it's not obvious that buying is necessarily better than renting.

When is it better to rent than to buy? Financially speaking, the rule of thumb is that if you don't stay in a home for at least 3 years, you probably won't break even on the closing expenses incurred while buying it. That is, of course, as long as you're not speculating that property values will rise dramatically. Given the high costs of owning a home, it's possible that you will not see the financial benefits of buying for 5 to 10 years.

Besides some potential financial advantages, renting a home offers other benefits. For example, renting relieves you of the risk and headache of maintaining and repairing the structure--if a pipe bursts, it's not your responsibility. Some people also value the flexibility it offers--i.e., the freedom to pull up stakes, not having to go through the process of selling a home. And with lower monthly payments, renting may allow you to save more for a down payment when you do decide to buy.
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Thumbs down 中国特色的意见也不无道理,能作为参考

毋庸讳言,在住房的“租买比”没有理顺之前,由于租价与售

价水平相差太远,当然是租房比买房划算。


  所谓“租比买”,也称作“租售比”,是指每平方米使用面积的

月租金与每平方米建筑面积的房价之间的比值。从理论上说,计算

“租买比”的方法是:假定将租房所需支付的钱以能获得最大利息收

益的方式存入银行,算出包括银行利息在内的租房总支出;同时也假

定将买房所需支付的钱以能够获得最大利息收益的方式存入银行,再

算出买房总支出;再以租房总支出除以买房总支出,其结果就是住房

的“租买比”。


  从现实情况看,即使房改后把房租标准提高到平均每平方米使用

面积每月1.30元,也不过占职工家庭收入的5%左右。而按照有关部

门的推算,这个比例要达到15%以上,“租买比”才趋于合理,才有

可能通过收房租的方法回收住房的投资,租房和买房的开销也基本上

一致,此时大家就会觉得还是买房好。


  但如果细琢磨一下,上面算的帐又很不全面。因为现在有不少人

等着要住房,不买房就很难尽快住上房子,而且房租和房价也年年上

涨。那么,究竟是租房合算,还是买房合算,这就需要从每个家庭的

现实需要和长远利益来考虑,才能够得到符合实际的结论。


  今后房租要年年涨,调整的幅度比工资调整和物价指数上涨的幅

度要大,用不了十几年,房租标准就要调整到成本租金水平。到那个

时候,房租支出就会达到和超过家庭收入的15%,再往后就会达到

20%―25%。而且,卖房的标准成本也要年年涨。1992年的准成本价

就比1991年涨了3%左右,今后每年准成本价的上涨幅度还要大些;政

府给的买房优惠条件又年年减少,直到取消。尤其是市场上城市住房

的价格年年上涨,近些年的实际情况就是住房价格的上涨幅度大大超

过物价上涨的幅度,自己买下房子,不但保值,还会增值。所以,如

果把各方面因素综合起来考虑,是不难得出正确结论的,到头来一定

是买房比租房划算得多,因而,晚买不如早买
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Thumbs up Rent or Buy Calculator

如果你看了如上的贴子,还是一团浆糊,不知道如何下决定的话.
那就交给这York University Professor Moshe A. Milevsky的CALCULATOR帮你算吧,点击如下website:
http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/epic/inter.../ca01821e.html, 自己进去算吧.

Should you rent or buy a home and what are the long-term costs? On the one hand, you're tired of your landlord. On the other hand, buying a home likely means borrowing a lot of money. As well, when buying a home you must make a down payment, money that could otherwise be invested or put into savings. What should you do?


http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/epic/inter.../ca01821e.html
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