Mar 4th, 2011, 00:59 | 只看该作者 #1281 |
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仔细看了各位的帖子, 觉得还是到处闲逛的帖子更有说服力。房地产市场会崩盘的,美国就是一个很好的例子,回顾历史,加拿大地产也曾衰落过,历史会重演的。 感觉这几年,在地产市场本地人赚的是真金白银,华人得到的只是房子,房子的价值随时间是会变化的。当地产市场套住尽可能多的华人投资资金时,就是地产市场开始衰退的时候。为什么本地人不炒房地产呢? 是他们不足够聪明,还是人家更有经济头脑,绝顶聪明? 看到坛子里这么多的网友看好房地产投资,生意中最终赚钱的只是极少数人,如果大家都看好,就玄了。 这是房帖,不是富豪榜贴。感觉坛子里的网友都不是大款,要比富,找比尔盖茨,李嘉诚。 实在不行跟国内同学富豪比比,也壮壮我们这些海外游子的门面,别坛子里斗。 提个建议,谈论房子的问题,要有理有据,就像到处闲逛一样。如果动感情就不好了,还有别跑题,扯太远。 顺便问一句。新的一年开始了,不知建议的给天南地北山东人的贡献奖兑现了没有?大家再加把劲,该贴浏览次数超过十万应该可以了吧。 |
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Mar 4th, 2011, 11:13 | 只看该作者 #1286 | |
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股市是一种投资手段而已,不适合所有人,我只是举这个例子来说明除了房子还有其他投资手段。本地还有人投资油砂,估计投资收益也决不会少于房产投资水平。 华人喜欢买房,很多人也只知道投资房地产。美国、日本、欧洲、迪拜的例子已经给很多人上了课,只不过华人报喜不报忧的做法让大家只看到成功者,看不到失败者落魄后的惨状。搜集一下网络上的报道,在美国丢了房产,损失信用的华人也大有人在吧!那些筋疲力尽才保住房产的,就不去讨论他们生活的艰难了。 |
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Mar 4th, 2011, 12:02 | 只看该作者 #1290 |
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转贴一篇NATIONAL POST的关于房价的文章,应该是比较总肯。应该说就卡尔加里的房价而言比我10年前买房时最少涨了2-4倍(不同小区的房价有比较大的差异),从房价的涨幅来看明显大于工资收入的涨幅,造成中低收入的人群的压力较大,但石油沙的投资和投机又造就了成千上万的百万,千万富翁,加之新的石油中心城市的口号,明显有替代休斯顿的趋势,又有更多的投资基金,热钱涌入卡城,造成房价居高不下,总而言之投资价值变小,风险增大,但会不会等到房价的CRASH,那就是各有各的理论了,我不是专家不好做评论,不过作为单一经济类型的卡城,石油是影响房市的最直接也是最主要的原因,我个人认为石油价格70和30是衡量房市的最主要的2个指标,70元/桶,石油公司不大会上大型的石油项目,房市会保持相对的稳定,石油价格到了30,主要的石油装置都会亏损,石油公司会相应的大批裁员,压缩开支,除了国际化的大石油财阀外,中小公司基本都无法生存,如果真有那么一天,不用忽悠,卡城的房市就CRASH了.按目前石油的价格,卡城的房市还会稳中有升。 Housing crisis 'inevitable' if prices outpace income(ZT) While incomes and average home prices kept pace with each other over most of the last three decades, both rising 5.7% a year, BMO says that prices more than doubled in the decade to late 2007, and grew twice as fast as incomes from 2002 to 2007. While incomes and average home prices kept pace with each other over most of the last three decades, both rising 5.7% a year, BMO says that prices more than doubled in the decade to late 2007, and grew twice as fast as incomes from 2002 to 2007. Canada’s hot housing market should cool down somewhat this year, according to a new report from BMO Capital Markets, which says the kind of correction some observers have been warning about is unlikely — though not impossible, given the right circumstances. The question of a correction comes down to whether increases in household incomes can keep up with rising home prices. If price rises outpace incomes, said BMO senior economist Sal Guatieri, “a correction would be inevitable.” While incomes and average home prices kept pace with each other over most of the last three decades, both rising 5.7% a year, Guatieri said in the report that prices more than doubled in the decade to late 2007, and grew twice as fast as incomes from 2002 to 2007. “Even after sliding 13% through the recession, prices quickly rebounded and are now 10% above their 2007 peak,” Guatieri said. “The ratio of average resale prices to personal incomes is currently 14% above its long-run mean, suggesting the national market is moderately overvalued.” BMO expects gains in income to outpace advances in housing prices for the next 18 months — during which time the bank expects interest rates to rise by two percentage points. “If incomes climb eight per cent and prices stabilize, as we expect, the current over-valuations would fall to 6%, hardly the stuff of corrections.” Growing incomes are also expected to offset costs associated with rising interest rates. While new homebuyers are told housing costs — such as mortgage, taxes, insurance and heating — shouldn’t consume more than 32% of household income, Guatieri said the current rate is about 35%, and if incomes and interest rise as expected, affordability would “deteriorate” to 40% of disposable income. That alone would not trigger a correction, Guatieri said, noting that during corrections in 1989 and 2008, affordability exceeded 45%. “The risk of a correction would increase, however, if prices rose alongside rates and incomes (that is, by eight per cent) — in which case the affordability measure would reach 43% and approach the threshold of prior corrections.” Currently, the housing market is relatively balanced, according to Guatieri. New-home construction has fallen back and there are about two new listings for every sale. Average resale prices rose five per cent over the past year, but excluding Vancouver that increase would have been less than two per cent, and new home prices rose%PEA=POST /forums/editpost.php?do=updatepost 此帖于 Mar 4th, 2011 12:22 被 hcu-c 编辑。 |
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Mar 4th, 2011, 12:21 | 只看该作者 #1293 | |
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已经买了房的也好,炒房的也好,实话实说就是,没必要把自己装扮成一个打几份工也要拼老命供楼的买家。 |
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Mar 4th, 2011, 12:30 | 只看该作者 #1295 | |
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在主要的石油消费国家,如中国,美国,廉价石油已经枯竭.美国要靠不断去发现新的高成本石油,如深海,油价高达90美元一桶.中国需要在那些枯竭的油田里不断注入化学物质来维持住产能.其他新发现的石油资源,如加拿大的油砂,也都是成本很高资源. 中东国家虽然还有大量的廉价石油,但是都已经被国有化了,外国企业很难染指.而且因为OPEC这个托拉斯机构,产量很稳定,没有大幅度增加的可能.现在是人都明白这黑色金矿的重要性. 能源和粮食,是人类赖以生存的根本因素,其他什么高科技IT,都是浮云.如果拨开那些云山雾罩的金融泡沫,就能发现,对能源和粮食的人均占有量,是决定一个国家国民幸福程度的最根本因素. 能让油价重回30的,除了象09年金融市场的剧烈动荡外.人类在替代能源上取得根本性突破,才有可能.否则,我们此生应该看到的就是能源和粮食在未来不断的走高. |
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老兵不死,他们只是慢慢凋零
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Mar 4th, 2011, 12:52 | 只看该作者 #1296 |
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如果能源替代技术不是取得了划时代的突破,石油作为不可替代的能源还要持续很长时间,低价能源的时代已经一去不复返了,纵观历次大的战争其实都是土地,粮食,能源的争夺,以前是这样,今后也不会改变,人口的大量增加,粮食,能源,金属的大量消耗和不可替代性,决定了它们长期的趋势是增长的。现在已经有专家预测黄金要涨到3000,石油会突破200,虽然目前看并不可能,却明细看出了一些人对这些资源供给的担心,而且随着人口的不断增长,消耗的不断增大,这种担心会越来越大。
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感谢 hcu-c 此篇文章之用户: |
老兵不死 (Mar 4th, 2011) |
Mar 4th, 2011, 13:00 | 只看该作者 #1298 | |
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1.油价高,不等于石油利润会分配到普通劳动者手中。对卡尔加里,石油泡沫带来的是就业潮,普通人只是有个工作机会而已。虽然本地的工资水平相对较高,但扣除物价房价上涨因素,普通劳动者生活压力同样很大。要知道,石油公司一个中层管理人员的薪资就能把好几个低收入拉到平均水平。这解释了为什么卡城幸福指数较低。 2.油价高低走势不完全是市场需求的反映。对大的国家级的金融机构来说,打压油价照样有巨大盈利,而且符合国家战略利益。深南玻对冲油价的结果是什么?大量中小公司破产之际,也正好是大型财团加剧垄断之时。 3.09年的波动之后,石油公司得以恢复。但是,压缩成本,防范风险也成为各大公司不得不重视的策略。IT行业可以外包;石油行业,油服业不能采取同样的手段么?卡城一个工程师要价十万一年,设计项目外包给其他国家的专业人员,可能六万一年足够。压缩本地劳动力成本,这会成为趋势...... |
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Mar 4th, 2011, 13:14 | 只看该作者 #1300 | |
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不过,不管华尔街如何去操纵,人类无法改变的,是自己对能源日趋高涨的需求和日益减少的供给之间的矛盾.看一个问题就要看到本质.纠缠在那些金融的泡沫里,只能让你自己迷失. 另外,石油行业是一个对资金需求异常密集的行业.无论是前期的勘探开发,还是后期的生产维护,都需要消耗大量的资金.通常打压油价造成的后果就是大量老油田因为维护和增产资金减少,迅速枯竭,新油田因为勘探资金被砍,无法开发,随后的后果就是油价的报复性反弹. 另外,石油的开发绝大部分的投资都落实在本地,包括勘探,钻井,开发,建设,生产,你做的那个工程设计不过是其中很小一部分,绝大部分工作都外包不了,这是和IT最大的区别,IT原则上给你一台电脑和互联网,你在世界上哪呆着都行.可是你能在中国钻井,生产加拿大的石油吗? |
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